Sasse to take Iowa, Perdue in Second!
Iowa Caucus Results
26.3% Sasse
22.2% Perdue
20.8% Cotton
11.2% Bevin
10.3% Amash
4.6% Love
2.3% Haley
1.0% Walker
1.3% Others
February 1st, 2020 - After the devastation of 2016, it was kind of hard to imagine a Republican Party coming back from such a definite loss. They had fallen backwards in every demographic they promised to make ground with, and had lost the Senate and were closer than comfort to losing the House. Yet, the Party managed to come back in 2018 with a resounding return to Senate Majority, largely thanks to President Clinton, and were ready to fight in 2020. Many expected House Speaker Paul Ryan to jump in and clear the field, but Ryan made clear as daylight that he would not make a run. The next of kin was Former Governor Nikki Haley of South Carolina, but her campaign was dull and she wasn't much more than background noise. So the Republican field was really up in the air.
The national leader emerged from fairly familiar ground - Senator David Perdue spent wildly to put his name out there as a populist outsider who will do the people's business in Washington. Striking a vaguely Trumpian vibe, Perdue experienced a sharp increase in the polls and was the frontrunner for a long period of time. Perdue was more substantive than Trump, but he was more prickly and slightly more elitist, calling out Governor Scott Walker of Wisconsin for not having a college degree. This did not vibe with Iowans and many thought that Iowa would be Perdue's achillies heel.
As with any Republican primary, there were a series of burnouts. Starting with Paul Ryan and Nikki Haley, the next to rise was Congresswoman Mia Love, a black congresscritter from Utah. She was deeply and full throatedly conservative and managed to snag a distant but impressive 2nd place in some polls after a debate closing speech that went viral in conservative circles. But she fell behind quickly thanks to her campaign over-spending and her inability to get beyond her core issues. The next was Kentucky Governor Matt Bevin, a staunch social conservative and family man. He contrasted nicely with Perdue prickly nature, but Bevin had his own set of problems, including Kentucky's failing economy, and Bevin's campaign slowed to a crawl after controversial statements about women's reproductive rights.
The two that rose near the right time were Nebraska Senator Ben Sasse and Arkansas Senator Tom Cotton. Sasse, though not much of a religious righter before, became the candidate of the religious right in 2020. He showed chops in that area as well as being a strong fiscal conservative and strongly anti-Trump movementism. Sasse began seeing his numbers rise in November after Bevin's collapse and he polled head to head with Perdue in Iowa. Then Cotton saw his numbers rise the week before the election. Cotton is also staunchly conservative, but unlike Sasse, he is particularly known as a national security hawk.
Sasse continues the trend of the religious right winning Iowa, while Perdue continues the trend of the frontrunner disappointing in the state. Whether Cotton will follow the path of Marco Rubio and Ron Paul, is the real question. Among Very Conservative voters, Sasse dominated 38-19-19 (Cotton and Perdue, respectively), while among Somewhat Conservative voters Cotton led 25-21-21 (Sasse and Perdue, respectively), and even weirder, among Moderates Perdue led 35-20-18 (Cotton and Amash (!!!)).
Other interesting results - Bevin's devastating 4th place, Amash getting a last minute surge to get way ahead of Love, Haley's pitiful performance, and Scott Walker drops out.
