Predict the 2018 Midterms With These Conditions

[Free Bird]

- President Clinton by the slimmest of margins
- Kirk and Johnson lose
- David Jolly and Joe Heck elected to the Senate
- Chris Sununu and Phil Scott elected Governor
- Heller and Sandoval intend on switching jobs
- Maine Governor: Rep. Poliquin vs. Former Rep. Michaud
- Maine Senate: Olympia Snowe, unsatisfied with King being only a fake moderate, is convinced to make a comeback a la Dan Coats in order to neutralize King as a candidate (let me dream)
- Kasich decides to take on Brown in an obvious move to stay relevant in preparation for a 2020 run
- Clinton/Governor approvals stay steady from today
- Malloy, Wolf retiring, the latter for health reasons

[Free Bird]

Maine Sen. would NOT be give or take but otherwise I agree

[Kingpoleon]

When you say slim, do you mean something like:

270: Clinton/Schweitzer(48.3%)
268: Trump/Brown(48.8%)

With, say, Kasich giving the keynote?

I think ME-1 would be won by Joe Baldacci. ME-2 would probably be held by Summers or someone similar.

As for the Ohio Senate race:
Kasich(R): 56.7%
Brown(D): 40.4%
Pryce(I): 2.8%

[OSR stands with Israel]

2018 would be an epic slaughter for the Democrats. I could see something like this happening in the Democrats' worst case scenario:

Senate

GOP +10, which means GOP 63, Democrats 37 in the OP's scenario. Give or take Michigan, Maine and Indiana. Predicting individual races is pretty much impossible at this point.

Governors

GOP +2.

I would also add Indiana and Virginia to the list

[100% pro-life no matter what]

2018 would be an epic slaughter for the Democrats. I could see something like this happening in the Democrats' worst case scenario:

Senate

GOP +10, which means GOP 63, Democrats 37 in the OP's scenario. Give or take Michigan, Maine and Indiana. Predicting individual races is pretty much impossible at this point.

Governors

GOP +2.

I would also add Indiana and Virginia to the list

And Minnesota and New Mexico- Veto-proof majority!!!

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Clinton would likely win a 272-266 map not under a Trump but a Cruz scenario and likely have won IL, WI, NH and Pa Senate seats along with FL.

A combination of Donnelly and Brown or McCaskill lose while Katie Marshall targets Heller. 47-50 D seats

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Yeah now but Trump is a weak candidate.

[/]

lol

[Stm85]

2018 Senate picks for the competitive races in in OP's scenario would go like this:

AZ: Jeff Flake is primaried by former congressional candidate Wendy Rogers, but wins fairly decisively. Flake then wins a close race against 2016 Senate candidate Ann Kirkpatrick. R Hold

FL: With CFO Jeff Atwater opting for the gubernatorial race, former Sen. Marco Rubio easily wins the Republican nomination and defeats Bill Nelson by a decent margin. R Gain

IN: Joe Donnelly never had a chance in this environment and he loses to Lt. Gov Eric Holcomb by double digits.R Gain

ME: Angus King holds off Olympia Snowe by a narrow margin. I Hold

MI: Former Rep. Dan Benishek wins a divisive primary against Rep. Justin Amash. A divided party base leads to a double digit loss to Debbie Stabenow. D Hold

MO: Claire McCaskill runs a strong campaign, but it isn't enough to counteract the rightward drift of the state. Rep. Ann Wagner is elected by a healthy margin.R Gain

MT: Jon Tester also runs a tough campaign, but AG Tim Fox is able to squeak by with a very close win by nationalizing the race.R Gain

ND: Heidi Heitkamp loses a very close race to Rep. Kevin Cramer, as the state is simply too red, especially in a midterm election. R Gain

NV: With the broadly popular Sandoval running, Democrats are unable to attract a top tier candidate, leaving them with a messy primary and former Rep. Steven Horsford as their nominee. Sandoval crushes Horsford by double digits. R Hold

OH: John Kasich remains popular and is able to win moderates and independents over the more liberal Sherrod Brown, giving him a comfortable victory.R Gain

PA: Bob Casey hangs on to his seat despite a strong challenge from Rep. Ryan Costello. D Hold

VA: Former Rep. Robert Hurt falls just short of beating Tim Kaine, who made sure he was prepared after seeing Mark Warner nearly upset in 2014. D Hold

WI: Tammy Baldwin wins comfortably against Lt Gov. Rebecca Kleefisch, running ahead of Gov. Scott Walker, who narrowly wins a third term. D Hold

WV: Joe Manchin easily defeats State House Majority Leader Daryl Cowles. D Hold


This would make the Senate composition 59 Rs, 39 Ds, and 2 Is.

[Mr.Phips]

2018 would be an epic slaughter for the Democrats. I could see something like this happening in the Democrats' worst case scenario:

Senate

GOP +10, which means GOP 63, Democrats 37 in the OP's scenario. Give or take Michigan, Maine and Indiana. Predicting individual races is pretty much impossible at this point.

Governors

GOP +2.

Republicans aren't beating Stabanow.  Even in an open seat race in the Republican wave of 2014 they still lost by 15 points.

And I'm pretty sure Rauner is toast.  You need to be a popular moderate like Jim Edgar to win reelection as a Republican in Illinois.

[Stm85]

2018 would be an epic slaughter for the Democrats. I could see something like this happening in the Democrats' worst case scenario:

Senate

GOP +10, which means GOP 63, Democrats 37 in the OP's scenario. Give or take Michigan, Maine and Indiana. Predicting individual races is pretty much impossible at this point.

Governors

GOP +2.

Republicans aren't beating Stabanow.  Even in an open seat race in the Republican wave of 2014 they still lost by 15 points.

And I'm pretty sure Rauner is toast.  You need to be a popular moderate like Jim Edgar to win reelection as a Republican in Illinois.

As you can see in my picks above, I agree that Stabenow would be very tough to beat, but it wouldn't be impossible in a wave election. Remember that Peters won that open seat against a horrible candidate in Land. I'm not sure if there is currently someone who could beat her, but she could be vulnerable in the right circumstance.

I think Rauner has a decent chance to survive, especially in a midterm year. He still has positive approval ratings' which is no small feat for a GOP governor in a presidential election year in Illinois. He also can turn the complete and utter obstruction from the state legislature into an argument against the status quo.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Let's say it's January of 2019 and President Clinton faces a veto-proof majority in the Senate (unlikely, but shockingly not completely impossible).  What gets done?  What if it is a filibuster-proof GOP majority, but not a veto proof one (probably likely under a President Clinton, assuming 2016 isn't too bad)?

[Free Bird]

2018 Senate picks for the competitive races in in OP's scenario would go like this:

AZ: Jeff Flake is primaried by former congressional candidate Wendy Rogers, but wins fairly decisively. Flake then wins a close race against 2016 Senate candidate Ann Kirkpatrick. R Hold

FL: With CFO Jeff Atwater opting for the gubernatorial race, former Sen. Marco Rubio easily wins the Republican nomination and defeats Bill Nelson by a decent margin. R Gain

IN: Joe Donnelly never had a chance in this environment and he loses to Lt. Gov Eric Holcomb by double digits.R Gain

ME: Angus King holds off Olympia Snowe by a narrow margin. I Hold

MI: Former Rep. Dan Benishek wins a divisive primary against Rep. Justin Amash. A divided party base leads to a double digit loss to Debbie Stabenow. D Hold

MO: Claire McCaskill runs a strong campaign, but it isn't enough to counteract the rightward drift of the state. Rep. Ann Wagner is elected by a healthy margin.R Gain

MT: Jon Tester also runs a tough campaign, but AG Tim Fox is able to squeak by with a very close win by nationalizing the race.R Gain

ND: Heidi Heitkamp loses a very close race to Rep. Kevin Cramer, as the state is simply too red, especially in a midterm election. R Gain

NV: With the broadly popular Sandoval running, Democrats are unable to attract a top tier candidate, leaving them with a messy primary and former Rep. Steven Horsford as their nominee. Sandoval crushes Horsford by double digits. R Hold

OH: John Kasich remains popular and is able to win moderates and independents over the more liberal Sherrod Brown, giving him a comfortable victory.R Gain

PA: Bob Casey hangs on to his seat despite a strong challenge from Rep. Ryan Costello. D Hold

VA: Former Rep. Robert Hurt falls just short of beating Tim Kaine, who made sure he was prepared after seeing Mark Warner nearly upset in 2014. D Hold

WI: Tammy Baldwin wins comfortably against Lt Gov. Rebecca Kleefisch, running ahead of Gov. Scott Walker, who narrowly wins a third term. D Hold

WV: Joe Manchin easily defeats State House Majority Leader Daryl Cowles. D Hold


This would make the Senate composition 59 Rs, 39 Ds, and 2 Is.

You, friend, don't know the power that Mount Olympus holds in this State

[Kingpoleon]

New Gubernatorial Tickets or New Governors/Lt. Governors or second-in-liners:
Alabama: Thomas Battle/Tim James
Alaska: Bill Walker/Ethan Berkowitz
Arizona: Ann Kirkpatrick/Scott Smith
California: Gavin Newsom/Ron Galperin
Colorado: Stephen Laffey/Ryan Frazier
Connecticut: Kevin Lambo/Angel Taveras
Florida: Carlos Gimenez/Will Weatherford
Georgia: Earl "Buddy" Carter/Sally Yates
Idaho: Brad Little/Lori Otter
Iowa: Kimberly Reynolds/Rick Bertrand
Kansas: William Kassebaum/Nick Jordan
Maine: Bruce Poliquin/Steve Abbott
Massachusetts: Charlie Baker/Richard Tisei
Michigan: Mark Hackel/David Knezek
Minnesota: Erik Paulsen/Jake Coleman
Nevada: Cresent Hardy/Ben Kieckhefer
New Hampshire: Chris Pappas
New Mexico: Martin Heinrich/Martin Chavez
Ohio: Mary Taylor/Tim Brown
Oklahoma: Mick Cornett/Scott Pruitt
South Carolina: Andre Bauer/Jennifer Sanford
South Dakota: Marty Jackley/Jason Gant
Tennessee: Bob Corker/Timothy Burchett
Texas: Greg Abbott/George P. Bush
Vermont: Phil Scott/Peter Clavelle
Wyoming: Cynthia Cloud/Rita Meyer

New Senators:
Florida: Carlos Curbelo
Ohio: Steve Austria
Pennsylvania: Charlie Dent
Virginia: Barbara Comstock

[Stm85]

2018 Senate picks for the competitive races in in OP's scenario would go like this:

AZ: Jeff Flake is primaried by former congressional candidate Wendy Rogers, but wins fairly decisively. Flake then wins a close race against 2016 Senate candidate Ann Kirkpatrick. R Hold

FL: With CFO Jeff Atwater opting for the gubernatorial race, former Sen. Marco Rubio easily wins the Republican nomination and defeats Bill Nelson by a decent margin. R Gain

IN: Joe Donnelly never had a chance in this environment and he loses to Lt. Gov Eric Holcomb by double digits.R Gain

ME: Angus King holds off Olympia Snowe by a narrow margin. I Hold

MI: Former Rep. Dan Benishek wins a divisive primary against Rep. Justin Amash. A divided party base leads to a double digit loss to Debbie Stabenow. D Hold

MO: Claire McCaskill runs a strong campaign, but it isn't enough to counteract the rightward drift of the state. Rep. Ann Wagner is elected by a healthy margin.R Gain

MT: Jon Tester also runs a tough campaign, but AG Tim Fox is able to squeak by with a very close win by nationalizing the race.R Gain

ND: Heidi Heitkamp loses a very close race to Rep. Kevin Cramer, as the state is simply too red, especially in a midterm election. R Gain

NV: With the broadly popular Sandoval running, Democrats are unable to attract a top tier candidate, leaving them with a messy primary and former Rep. Steven Horsford as their nominee. Sandoval crushes Horsford by double digits. R Hold

OH: John Kasich remains popular and is able to win moderates and independents over the more liberal Sherrod Brown, giving him a comfortable victory.R Gain

PA: Bob Casey hangs on to his seat despite a strong challenge from Rep. Ryan Costello. D Hold

VA: Former Rep. Robert Hurt falls just short of beating Tim Kaine, who made sure he was prepared after seeing Mark Warner nearly upset in 2014. D Hold

WI: Tammy Baldwin wins comfortably against Lt Gov. Rebecca Kleefisch, running ahead of Gov. Scott Walker, who narrowly wins a third term. D Hold

WV: Joe Manchin easily defeats State House Majority Leader Daryl Cowles. D Hold


This would make the Senate composition 59 Rs, 39 Ds, and 2 Is.

You, friend, don't know the power that Mount Olympus holds in this State

Oh, no doubt she could win. I picked King because he's an incumbent with a +40 approval rating; people like that don't lose too often. However, I know Snowe is very popular too, it would be a very close race.