When did Clinton become the prohibitive favorite?

[Mehmentum]

South Carolina is a tempting option for me seeing how clear a signal it was that Clinton would get a huge delegate lead out of Super Tuesday.  March 15th would be the safer option, though.

[Wells]

I changed my endorsement to Clinton on March 15. Until then I had hope that Sanders could be the nominee.

[RaphaelDLG]

There was a real shot for Sanders if he had won OH and done better in FL while keeping his great performances in MO, IL, NC.

After the 15th, he was screwed - the number of wins in unfavorable states and landslide margins in favorable ones consequently required was just too tall an order.

[Averroës Nix]

~late 2014, possibly much earlier

[Maxwell]

I will say, Clinton lost her "inevitable" banner when she lost New Hampshire by as much as she did, and I was worried about her path to the nomination until South Carolina, where it showed the racial divide that Sanders still hasn't crossed yet.

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

When Biden declined

[ElectionsGuy]

Super Tuesday just because it was so brutal in the south, plus Clinton winning Massachusetts. March 15th was the knockout punch.

[IceSpear]

Realistically: Mid to late 2014, when it became obvious she was going to run.

Close to certainty: After SC/Super Tuesday

Certainty: March 15th

[Derpist]

Her victory in Ohio/Illinois

[Xing]

November 7th, 2012.

[Figueira]

I'd say she was the "prohibited favorite" from the beginning, and never really stopped being that.

[BundouYMB]

When she stepped down from being SoS and made it clear she was preparing to run.

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

When no other establishment candidate emerged.

[bagelman]

When Biden declined

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

June 7th, 2008


Kidding, probably late-2015 when Sanders was rising but wasn't able to sell himself to the Democratic rank and file.

[Warren 4 Secretary of Everything]

June 7th, 2008

[Mr. Morden]

January 2013, when she started the process of reversing her earlier denials of interest in running for president again:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=164982.msg3603098#msg3603098

[RogueBeaver]

June 7th, 2008

[The Other Castro]

She's always been the prohibitive favorite, but there have been some shimmers of possibility when Biden was looking like he would get in, when Sanders won big in NH, and for a second when Sanders won Michigan. However, each moment was dashed followed by the 1st debate, the big win in SC, and the big wins on March 15th. The last one was for good, and NY is the cherry.

[Matty]

The day she lost to Obama in 2008,.

[HagridOfTheDeep]

I think Nevada was kind of like, the biggest "fork in the road of destiny." I know it was close, but I always felt like a Sanders win there could have seriously legitimized his campaign and propelled him to stronger showings on Super Tuesday.

[RaphaelDLG]

Realistically: Mid to late 2014, when it became obvious she was going to run.

Close to certainty: After SC/Super Tuesday

Certainty: March 15th

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

I think Nevada was kind of like, the biggest "fork in the road of destiny." I know it was close, but I always felt like a Sanders win there could have seriously legitimized his campaign and propelled him to stronger showings on Super Tuesday.

I feel pretty much the same way.

[Lyin' Steve]

Before we start re-writing history...
Before Iowa, everyone was saying that Sanders could sweep Iowa/NH/NV, and then get crushed in the south.  But the tightening national polls were starting to make it seem like maybe, just maybe, if he won all three, he could have enough momentum to make SC close and ride out the storm.
Iowa was close enough that people were saying Clinton might be in trouble.  Then she got walloped in New Hampshire and people were getting really nervous.
Nevada wasn't really a turning point so much as a glass of cold water to the face.  Nevada was the first time where we saw that there were two smart camps here, Clinton could play just as fierce as Sanders, the girl could win.  We were still talking about Sanders like he might have a chance, but there was definitely the feeling that Clinton was going to win.

That was the first of a series of media-created "obstacles that Sanders must overcome if he's to have a chance."  And Sanders has failed everyone except Michigan.  But he didn't fail them so terribly.  He always held onto his little 10% chance through Super Tuesday.  There was an idea that maybe Clinton was just really strong with black voters and Sanders could sweep the northeast.  It was always a dream but it could happen.  Then Michigan happened, and people started saying, maybe the polls were wrong!  Maybe Sanders can win when he really, really fights.  Maybe this is the start of something.

Realistically, the night of Michigan was probably peak Sanders.  He had a shadow of a chance then, maybe 15-20%.  We were thinking he would win Illinois and Missouri, perhaps Ohio as well, and then go through his series of good states and build up a good momentum and maybe even have a chance.  But he didn't win Illinois.  He didn't win Ohio.  He didn't even win Missouri.  And that was when we saw that Sanders' momentum just couldn't last.  That the polls were telling the truth, or were even biased towards Sanders sometimes.  That Clinton could fight like the dickens and put him in his place.  Yes, March 15th was the day when we saw once and for all that Sanders couldn't keep it up.  On March 15th it was over.

[ag]

When Biden declined