Poll: Trump Poised to Get Lowest Vote Ever Among Latinos
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  Poll: Trump Poised to Get Lowest Vote Ever Among Latinos
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Author Topic: Poll: Trump Poised to Get Lowest Vote Ever Among Latinos  (Read 1878 times)
they don't love you like i love you
BRTD
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« on: April 22, 2016, 08:11:05 AM »

http://www.nbcnews.com/news/latino/poll-trump-poised-get-lowest-vote-ever-among-latinos-n559741

Remember when Republicans were bragging about their Hispanic outreach and how they'd keep trending Republican? If any progress was made it'll ALL be flushed away! Glorious!
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Reaganfan
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« Reply #1 on: April 22, 2016, 08:25:00 AM »

11%? Come on. If MITT ROMNEY could get over 20%, you really think Trump will get 11%? I just don't buy it.
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Virginiá
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« Reply #2 on: April 22, 2016, 08:28:42 AM »

11%? Come on. If MITT ROMNEY could get over 20%, you really think Trump will get 11%? I just don't buy it.

I'm confused, are you implying Romney is worse than Trump in terms of his image/appeal to Hispanics?

In regards to 11%, I dunno, but I believe he'll get at best 20%~ and at worst, some percentage beginning with a 1.
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Reaganfan
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« Reply #3 on: April 22, 2016, 08:34:16 AM »

11%? Come on. If MITT ROMNEY could get over 20%, you really think Trump will get 11%? I just don't buy it.

Yeah, most polls (national polls as well as swing state polls) have shown him losing the Hispanic vote by the same margin as Romney (In some polls, he does a little better than that, in others a little bit worse). That being said, he still can't rely on a "Whites only" coalition to win the general.

I agree. I'm not disagreeing that Trump has massive demographic problems, but there are a number of factors at work here. We have no idea what type of electorate we are genuinely going to be seeing come November.
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Maxwell
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« Reply #4 on: April 22, 2016, 08:34:49 AM »

Romney's policies would've been nearly equally awful for immigrants, but unlike Trump, Romney doesn't seem outwardly vindictive toward them.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #5 on: April 22, 2016, 09:17:26 AM »

He speaks frequently of deporting any 'illegal alien' even if such means breaking up families. Except among Puerto Ricans and Cuban-Americans, I figure that most Hispanics know or suspect that they know some illegal aliens. Figure that people are more likely to ask "What's your sign?" than "What is your citizenship status?" before dating, and some teenagers could lose boyfriends or girlfriends from any wave of deportations.

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Nyvin
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« Reply #6 on: April 22, 2016, 09:45:07 AM »


No, not junk...totally believable.   Hispanics downright hate Trump.
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Sir Mohamed
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« Reply #7 on: April 22, 2016, 09:45:59 AM »

Surprise, surprise.
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beaver2.0
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« Reply #8 on: April 22, 2016, 10:02:42 AM »

What Latinos were polled?
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Wisconsin+17
Ben Kenobi
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« Reply #9 on: April 22, 2016, 10:52:24 AM »

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Totally buy it. I have Hispanic Texas friends who are conservative prolifers. They are, to a man (or woman), not voting Trump.

He could lose Texas if this keeps up and he manages to keep 30 percent of the Republican base away.

2016 is going to be a landslide against Trump if he's the nominee.
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Holmes
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« Reply #10 on: April 22, 2016, 11:08:30 AM »

I live in a latino neighborhood, married into a latino family, and my clients at work are predominantly latino.

Trump is more than toxic. He's literally the devil here. Just saying his name puts a sour look on people's faces.
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Ben Kenobi
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« Reply #11 on: April 22, 2016, 11:25:36 AM »

64 percent turnout by Hispanics and 89 percent democrat is enough for Trump to lose Texas, without adjusting other sliders. State flips are NC, AZ and TX.

Map I get with adjustments has:

AK, ID, MT, ND, SD, WY, UT, NE, KY, WV, KS, AR, TN and OK.

39 to 59 Republican to Democrat. Swing states are MT, AK and AL.
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Ben Kenobi
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« Reply #12 on: April 22, 2016, 11:32:17 AM »

Nope. That's the map I get, sadly. Trump's now put AZ and TX into play with his sh**tty numbers.
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Santander
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« Reply #13 on: April 22, 2016, 11:40:49 AM »

11%? Come on. If MITT ROMNEY could get over 20%, you really think Trump will get 11%? I just don't buy it.
Mitt Romney was Hispanic. Cheesy
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Boston Bread
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« Reply #14 on: April 22, 2016, 12:11:27 PM »

11%? Come on. If MITT ROMNEY could get over 20%, you really think Trump will get 11%? I just don't buy it.
Turnout should be more concerning than the margin here.
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Ben Kenobi
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« Reply #15 on: April 22, 2016, 12:18:34 PM »

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Both are concerning. 11 percent puts AZ and TX into play. Needless to say, Trupm can't win without either.
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Beefalow and the Consumer
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« Reply #16 on: April 22, 2016, 02:13:06 PM »

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Both are concerning. 11 percent puts AZ and TX into play. Needless to say, Trupm can't win without either.

According to the 538 tool, TX flips if 64% of Latinos turn out and go 89-11 against Trump.  In the last election, Latino turnout was 48%.
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#TheShadowyAbyss
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« Reply #17 on: April 22, 2016, 02:14:15 PM »

Most Republicans dont agree with deporting illegal immigrants yet TRUMP is still our frontrunner
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Ben Kenobi
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« Reply #18 on: April 22, 2016, 02:18:02 PM »

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I just said that.

Trump needs about 15 percent to secure Texas and Arizona. 11 percent puts TX in jeopardy, if Latino turnout is up, or white turnout continues to drop.
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Joe Republic
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« Reply #19 on: April 22, 2016, 02:24:45 PM »

Most Republicans dont agree with deporting illegal immigrants yet TRUMP is still our frontrunner

Most Republicans aren't supporting Trump, period.  But there you have it.
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Beefalow and the Consumer
Beef
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« Reply #20 on: April 22, 2016, 02:24:53 PM »
« Edited: April 22, 2016, 02:32:35 PM by Beef »

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I just said that.

Trump needs about 15 percent to secure Texas and Arizona. 11 percent puts TX in jeopardy, if Latino turnout is up, or white turnout continues to drop.

I got TX to flip with 54% Latino turnout at 11%, and that's with a rise in turnout of pro-Trump uneducated white voters, and a drop in turnout of anti-Trump educated white voters.

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Wisconsin+17
Ben Kenobi
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« Reply #21 on: April 22, 2016, 02:33:28 PM »

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Yep, it's a problem now. And lots of these folks are prolife.
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Ben Kenobi
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« Reply #22 on: April 22, 2016, 02:40:53 PM »

the Map I posted earlier is now a serious possibility for Trump. With MT a swing state and losing all the south, save Alabama.

It would be hilarious if Trump had the 'anti-southern' strategy.
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Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin
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« Reply #23 on: April 22, 2016, 02:41:57 PM »

11%? Come on. If MITT ROMNEY could get over 20%, you really think Trump will get 11%? I just don't buy it.

Me neither. He'll be lucky to make 10%.
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Wisconsin+17
Ben Kenobi
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« Reply #24 on: April 22, 2016, 02:50:55 PM »

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WV is about as solid as it gets on the R side. Moreso than Utah.
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