WA - Elway: Clinton leads, tied race on GOP side (user search)
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  WA - Elway: Clinton leads, tied race on GOP side (search mode)
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Author Topic: WA - Elway: Clinton leads, tied race on GOP side  (Read 2662 times)
Crumpets
Thinking Crumpets Crumpet
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*****
Posts: 17,727
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.06, S: -6.52

« on: April 23, 2016, 01:02:26 PM »

Oh, if only our top-two system applied to presidential elections... Now that's a poll I'd like to see: Clinton vs. Sanders among the whole Washington electorate.
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Crumpets
Thinking Crumpets Crumpet
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 17,727
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.06, S: -6.52

« Reply #1 on: April 24, 2016, 11:46:54 AM »

Why did they lump all the candidates into one race? That doesn't tell us jack when it comes to two separate primaries.

This is how it will appear on the ballot, and it's actually probably slightly more accurate this way. If instead they had asked the respondents which party they were supporting, then which candidate, a few might have been Republicans for Sanders or Democrats for Trump. This way they can just say "who are you voting for?" and put those numbers down. Undecided also in this case includes people who don't know which party they are voting for, let alone which candidate. Also, the math isn't really that difficult for sorting out the individual primary numbers. From this it's:

Trump - 39%
Cruz - 39%
Kasich - 21%

Clinton - 53%
Sanders - 47%
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Crumpets
Thinking Crumpets Crumpet
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 17,727
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.06, S: -6.52

« Reply #2 on: April 24, 2016, 12:00:17 PM »

Why did they lump all the candidates into one race? That doesn't tell us jack when it comes to two separate primaries.

This is how it will appear on the ballot, and it's actually probably slightly more accurate this way. If instead they had asked the respondents which party they were supporting, then which candidate, a few might have been Republicans for Sanders or Democrats for Trump. This way they can just say "who are you voting for?" and put those numbers down. Undecided also in this case includes people who don't know which party they are voting for, let alone which candidate. Also, the math isn't really that difficult for sorting out the individual primary numbers. From this it's:

Trump - 39%
Cruz - 39%
Kasich - 21%

Clinton - 53%
Sanders - 47%

This primary doesn't even matter on the dem side though.  We already caucused last month, nobody is going to show up.  It's a silly poll and they should have just polled Republicans with this ballot.

So here's a conundrum: If you voted in the Democratic caucus, I assume they don't want you voting for a Republican in their primary. But what's to stop you? They're on the same line of the ballot. How can they possibly control for a load of Democrats who voted in the caucus not just voting for Kasich or Cruz to hurt Trump? There's absolutely no incentive against shenanigans here.
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