Is Cruz failing?
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  Is Cruz failing?
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Author Topic: Is Cruz failing?  (Read 981 times)
Lyin' Steve
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« on: April 22, 2016, 11:10:44 AM »

In the aftermath of the NY blowout, he's down in almost every poll.  Tied in WA?  Losing in IN?  Getting whooped in CA?  These weren't the Cruz numbers two weeks ago.  It also seems like the media has turned against him.  The establishment pseudo-endorsements have dried up.

Two weeks ago Cruz had big momentum coming off a series of wins over Trump.  Just like with Sanders, it seems that a landslide loss on New York has wiped that momentum out completely.  Will he continue to slide after he goes 0/5 on Tuesday, or will there be a last ditch effort that rescues him in Indiana (where it appears the Republican primary will be decided)?
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Ben Kenobi
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« Reply #1 on: April 22, 2016, 11:12:44 AM »

I'm guessing the Media has figured they'd rather lose with Trump. We've seen this game before, with Romney et al. Same candidate, even worse results.

Thus, I'm not surprised to see Trump cave on conservatives. We shall see. Lots of interesting stuff happening in the background.

Trump's scorched earth is only going to benefit Hillary in the end.
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Lyin' Steve
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« Reply #2 on: April 22, 2016, 11:14:33 AM »

Do you think the GOP establishment turned to Cruz out of desperation to stop Trump after all the messy scandals in the weeks after Rubio dropped out, and is now realizing that they truly hate him and are just gonna let it play out?  That's the impression I'm getting.
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Holmes
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« Reply #3 on: April 22, 2016, 11:17:26 AM »

It is looking to me like a lot of establishment people have decided that they'd rather not fall on their sword for Cruz.
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Ben Kenobi
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« Reply #4 on: April 22, 2016, 11:18:10 AM »

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Again, I'm seeing the same game we've seen with McCain as with Romney. Same story, same results. Cruz was never the darling of the 'establishment' despite the claims of Trumpbots. Trump was always their candidate.

I predicted that back in December. And people seem shocked now that all the republican media is trying to 'close out' the nomination in his favor.

I'm sure the democrats are laughing their ass off that they have Trump as their opponent in the fall.

As soon as he announced he wanted to remove the prolife plank, he'll have every establishment dollar. The sad thing is that many of the former conservatives have already sold themselves.
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Xing
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« Reply #5 on: April 22, 2016, 11:20:53 AM »

I'd say we don't have enough evidence to conclude that Cruz really is struggling in IN and WA. Those CA numbers are troubling for him, though.
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Holmes
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« Reply #6 on: April 22, 2016, 11:24:03 AM »

Cruz was never the darling of the 'establishment' despite the claims of Trumpbots. Trump was always their candidate.

Well, when you have the head of the RNC saying this, even to this day, it's hard to really back up that narrative.
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Vosem
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« Reply #7 on: April 22, 2016, 11:27:37 AM »

...nope. Try again, trumpbot.
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Wisconsin+17
Ben Kenobi
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« Reply #8 on: April 22, 2016, 11:36:14 AM »

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I've been saying it since December. Trumpbots latched onto it so that their man can be the man of the 'populist' republicans. What hooey.

Trump's finally shown his colors.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #9 on: April 22, 2016, 11:39:38 AM »

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PeteB
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« Reply #10 on: April 22, 2016, 12:26:50 PM »

I don't think Cruz is failing, as much as I think that he is simply a fringe non-electable candidate.  In fact, to give him credit, I am amazed how well he has done so far.  He gets points in my book for building a robust ground organization that is picking up delegates everywhere.  He has won some states (like WI) that he normally would not have much of a chance.  The media has also given him a pass at some of his more controversial positions.

However he was always a longshot candidate, and the "establishment love" towards him was never going to last.  Now that he was wiped out in NY (and if similar results follow in the other NE states), he will be cut down to size, both in terms of establishment and media support.  However, that still does not mean that he would necessarily fail.  He has some good states in May ahead of him, and even if he is not the eventual nominee, he could influence the platform and secure some important administration spots for himself or his supporters.
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swf541
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« Reply #11 on: April 22, 2016, 12:32:53 PM »

Yes, i think Cruz is beginning to fall.
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DemPGH
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« Reply #12 on: April 22, 2016, 12:48:33 PM »
« Edited: April 22, 2016, 12:50:25 PM by DemPGH »

Yeah, and a lot of it is that the "anybody but ____" can only carry you so far. We've seen that a lot before. Somehow or another Cruz has been the beneficiary of it this time around, and it's been intense because Trump has been such an outsider. I think there are clear signs that that ice is starting to thaw, though. If the N.E. is the wipe-out it looks to be and IN goes Trump or is really close, that's it. Of course if Trump wins IN he'll probably get the 1237 without needing to do any finagling.
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Fmr. Pres. Duke
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« Reply #13 on: April 22, 2016, 12:57:44 PM »

Cruz is finished too. Trump will likely get the 1237 before the convention.
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Holmes
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« Reply #14 on: April 22, 2016, 01:03:22 PM »

Cruz is finished too. Trump will likely get the 1237 before the convention.

So you gonna vote for Hillary?
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beaver2.0
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« Reply #15 on: April 22, 2016, 01:08:56 PM »

No.  I don't think anyone expected him to win the upcoming states.  If he keeps going as he is, he will be in a good position for the convention.
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Ben Kenobi
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« Reply #16 on: April 22, 2016, 01:12:14 PM »

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Nah. Constitution party if they nominate Trump. Republicans have insisted they don't need my vote for years now.
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ashridge
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« Reply #17 on: April 22, 2016, 02:31:50 PM »

Cruz is fine. No one expected him to do well in New York. Conventional Wisdom changes on a daily basis, and most people latch on and believe it, even if it was just the opposite the day before. The media has never been remotely pro-Cruz, so that's nothing new.

Trying to follow Conventional Wisdom in Presidential politics is like trying to keep up with CW that changes daily on the Stock Market. It doesn't matter what CW was the day before, you're supposed to believe the new CW, even if there are no facts or data to support it. Watch how the CW will whipsaw again in Cruz's favor if he has a strong win in Indiana and goes on to win 6 or 7 out of the last 10 states to vote. Which is a very good possibility.
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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #18 on: April 22, 2016, 02:33:46 PM »

HE SHALL RISE AGAIN
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Gass3268
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« Reply #19 on: April 22, 2016, 02:54:46 PM »

It really doesn't matter if he wins a few states here or there in May, he's going to get slaughtered on Mid-Atlantic Tuesday and Final Tuesday when a vast majority of the remaining delegates will be rewarded. All he needs to do is make sure he picks up a few delegates in the states he loses, which will happen everywhere but Nebraska and maybe Montana.
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Lincoln Republican
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« Reply #20 on: April 22, 2016, 02:56:01 PM »

No.

Cruz is our only hope.
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #21 on: April 23, 2016, 11:48:21 AM »

Yeah he is but he was always failing. Wisconsin is a very exceptional state and I think that really blinded people as to how weak he actually is against Trump.
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dax00
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« Reply #22 on: April 23, 2016, 11:58:14 AM »

Just a hunch: the Donald made a great deal.
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Maxwell
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« Reply #23 on: April 23, 2016, 11:59:49 AM »

Problem is nobody likes Cruz. Only Wisconsinites are willing to stomach him.
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OkThen
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« Reply #24 on: April 23, 2016, 12:05:34 PM »

At this point yes he is failing, but we won't know for sure until Indiana. And I think we are overestimating how much people pay attention to specific states and who is/is not expected to do well. When Trump likely sweeps all five states next week, and Cruz likely gets 3rd in most or all of them, I don't think most people will say "gee, Ted was supposed to do bad anyway so". I think more will continue to coalesce around Trump and the #NeverTrump movement will look less like a legitimate alternative, and more of a desperate attempt to block the presumptive nominee. But I don't think we can really see if Cruz is failing until Indiana votes, which is do or die for him I think.
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