Will Cameron Resign?

[Lurker]

Blair did it too.

Idiots, the lot of them.

Blair's situation was rather different though. He'd already served two full terms, and as late as the 2005 campaign still stated he intended to serve a full third period - even though Brown and his camp put him under much pressure him to quit. Not a comparable situation to Cameron, who for whatever reason doesn't seem to have any wish to "go on and on".

[Antonio the Sixth]

Blair did it too.

Idiots, the lot of them.

Quitting while you're ahead is actually a smart strategy. Those who don't often end up like Maggie in 1990.

[IceAgeComing]

The Tories wouldn't have won a majority in 1992 had Maggie not been forced out and I think that Labour probably would have been the largest party.  I think that's part of Cameron's thinking: that a new leader would do better than him in 2020 and he'd rather resign a couple of years before an election to let a new leader bed themselves in rather than lead a losing campaign in 2020.  I think that one issue that they might have is that none of the Tory leadership candidates are particularly likeable outside of Boris: the last poll thing I saw had Michael Gove leading and that ought to show that the field isn't exactly strong

[Mr. Morden]

How much time does it take to pick a new party leader under the Conservative Party's current rules?  That is, if Cameron said tomorrow "I am resigning effective as soon a replacement is chosen", how long it would it take for the replacement to be chosen?  Or would he actually need to create a vacancy first, thereby requiring a caretaker PM to take over for a while?

[Phony Moderate]

How much time does it take to pick a new party leader under the Conservative Party's current rules?  That is, if Cameron said tomorrow "I am resigning effective as soon a replacement is chosen", how long it would it take for the replacement to be chosen?  Or would he actually need to create a vacancy first, thereby requiring a caretaker PM to take over for a while?

Michael Howard announced on the day after the 2005 general election that he was resigning; a leadership election then got underway and Howard formally stood down when the new Tory leader was elected.

Blair also did a similar thing in 2007; shortly after the 2007 local elections he stated that he'd be gone by late June.

[IceAgeComing]

How much time does it take to pick a new party leader under the Conservative Party's current rules?  That is, if Cameron said tomorrow "I am resigning effective as soon a replacement is chosen", how long it would it take for the replacement to be chosen?  Or would he actually need to create a vacancy first, thereby requiring a caretaker PM to take over for a while?

It took about six months in 2005, and Howard hung around as Opposition Leader until they elected someone.  They might be able to speed it up if it wasn't right after an election, I don't know.

Its a very different system to that used by most of the other parties now, in that the Parliamentary party have a much bigger role.  With Labour (and I think the Lib Dems although things may have changed now they have 8 MPs) you need a certain percentage of the parliamentary party to nominate you before you get on the ballot; but after that its preferential voting for party members (and union members and registered supporters) to elect the leader.  For the Tories the parliamentary party knock the initial list they have down to two people who go onto the Membership to vote on; meaning that the chances of someone popular with the Membership but not necessarily the parliamentary party (someone like a Liam Fox who's oddly popular amongst Tory members) getting in are very slim.  This is why I think that Boris won't win the leadership: I think that there's a good chance that he'll not be able to break into the top two spots among Tory MPs.  The system might be changed, but honestly I don't think they well: the Corbyn thing might scare them away from giving power to the membership.