Is getting the nomination early good?

[buritobr]

Since the modern primary system began, there were three open seat elections.

In 1988, Bush got the nomination earlier than Dukakis. Bush had a comfortable victory in the general election.

In 2000, Bush Jr. and Gore got the nomination almost at the same time. The general election was almost tied.

In 2008, McCain got the nomination earlier than Obama. Obama had a comfortable victory in the general election.


By observing the past, we can get no conclusion about the relation between the time of the nomination and in the result of the general election.

[Wells]

Well, in 1996, 2004, and 2012, the candidate who won the nomination earlier won.

[Nym90]

Overall yes, because it enables you to avoid taking as many attacks and to save money and gives you more time to plan strategy for the general election.

But it's no guarantee, as elections such as 2008 prove.