The Bull Moose Lives On-Fractures in the System

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Election 1952-Primaries

GOP
President Earl Warren won uncontested, despite some rumblings of a primary challenge from his right. To replace VP Neely, he selected Colorado Senator Eugene Millikin, a supporter of his on most issues who found himself right of Warren on economic issues, spearheading proposals to curb labor union power.

Democrats

Tennessee Senator Estes Kefauver-41%
Missouri Senator Harry Truman-29%
Secretary of Education James Mead-23%
Oregon Businessman Lee Hunt (f)-7%
The Democratic Party came into 1952 divided on a number of issues. The front-runner was popular former New York Governor and inaugural Secretary of Education James Mead, loved in and out of the Democratic Party. Bringing a Southern voice to the table was Estes Kefauver, a populist Tennessee senator. Moreover, former almost-nominee Harry Truman entered the race, profiting from name recognition to place second behind Mead in early polls.

Namely, civil rights became a point of contention. Eventual nominee Kefauver tended to shy away from the topic, presenting a balanced approach. He voted for the CRA, but voiced major reservations. Since its passage he continued to work for reforms to make everybody happy. Harry Truman supported the CRA as it passed, and James Mead even pushed for additional rules to prevent segregation. Lee Hunt did not prioritize the issue but seemed to support civil rights as a concept.

Another divisive issue was the direction of the Democratic Party. While Kefauver favored trying to fight the conservatives directly with a firey populist approach and battling corruption in the party, James Mead sought to win in new places with an appeal catered to the Bull Moose voters. Moreover, he believed strongly in the old machine style of politics that had propelled him to office. Truman took a similar approach, but was more moderate on policies, despite his continuing relationship with machine politics. Hunt believed that the Democrats had to put aside regional differences and become the party of moderacy and economic growth.

Estes Kefauver and Harry Truman both proposed an increase in social spending. Kefauver's plan focused on development and fighting poverty. Truman sought a universal healthcare plan, usually a Bull Moose idea, alongside some tax cuts and a way to tackle inflation. Mead was more vague in his plans, but looked to strengthen old age pensions and expand healthcare for the poor. Hunt pleaded for more infrastructure investment and government partnerships with businesses.

Throughout the primary season, Democratic leaning labor interests split on the three major candidates. Some large Northeastern unions were quick to endorse James Mead, but many national unions, including the UMW and the UAW (usual Bull Moose supporting union), came out in support of Estes Kefauver, based on his leadership qualities, populism, and support from the rank-and-file. Harry Truman garnered less support from labor, but still had a modestly large following in cities like St. Louis, Omaha, and Minneapolis. He didn't focus as much on getting labor support.  Hunt was never seen as very pro-labor and was thus ignored.

In the end, the South broke strongly for Kefauver, but so did large swaths of the US outside of his region. Anti-Civil rights voters and those who are ambivalent ended up voting for him. Moreover, Kefauver was popular in factory towns and areas with large poor populations. Harry Truman was popular in the Midwest and with many area farmers, but his left-leaning stances, his seeming disconnect from labor interests compared to others, and vote splitting with James Mead hampered him in some places. Mead split many left leaning Democrats with Truman, although he scraped out wins in remaining machine cities. Allegations of corruption by Kefauver and Hunt seriously damaged him, and he fell from frontrunner status early on. Moreover, as he was tied to an unpopular adminstration among Democrats, Mead suffered. Hunt remained popular out west, with a folksy businessman appeal, but he never got much attention or coverage nationally.

As VP, Estes Kefauver selected Senator Harry Truman, who despite his loss, remained pretty popular. The ticket looked strong as ever, and many Democrats were excited to see a unified ticket. Perhaps this ticket would bring about a revival among the Democratic Party and a defeat of Southern Conservatives and Midwestern Republicans.

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1952 Primaries-Bull Moose
Bull Moose
Matthew Neely-76%
New York State Rep. Herman Woskow-15%
Socialist Black Activist Lorenzo A. Fern (f)-9%

The sitting vice-president faced only token opposition. His vocal split from the fusion ticket helped to mollify the initial anti-Neely sentiment that existed towards the end of Warren's term. Neely came into the election looking quite strong.

His primary opponents were both considered much weaker. Herman Woskow, a state rep, ran to highlight  city level concerns. His campaign centered around proposing a major infrastructure bill and an urban buildup package, which Neely later incorporated into his platform. He had been upset by Neely's seemingly ambivalent attitude towards public safety and infrastructure in cities. Lorenzo Fern, a radical activist, ran to voice his concern that the Bull Moose Party was ignoring Black Americans. He fought for slavery reparations, a radical restructuring of the economy, total international pacifism, and increased protective federal presence in the South. VP Neely eventually incorporated a platform plank about a new Freedmen's Bureau into the party program, which represented a compromise between Neely, his more moderate African American allies, and the more extremist Socialist wing.

Matthew Neely turned to left-leaning New York City mayor Vito Marcantonio as a VP pick over former Iowa Governor Henry Wallace. This was supposed to help expand the Bull Moose Party's urban footprint and prevent rebellion on the left.

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1952 Primaries-Conservative Party

General Douglas MacArthur-45%
South Carolina Governor Strom Thurmond-37%
Fmr. Tennessee Governor James McCord-18%

General Douglas MacArthur, popular among many, jumped into the political realm, proclaiming that he was tired of a "weak American economy, weak American security, and weak American communities". South Carolina Governor Strom Thurmond entered as the candidate to restore segregation and roll back President Warren's civil rights initiatives. Finally, former TN Governor James McCord sought to roll back what he felt was federal overreach, crack down on unions, and "Show the world we mean business".

The most important issue was Civil Rights. Conservatives broadly opposed Warren's new laws, especially in the South. In the North, some Conservatives tacitly accepted the changes, but most sought a rollback of at least some provisions. MacArthur ran on a subtle, coded message of racial backlash, promising to restore the rights of states and overall stressing "law and order". Thurmond pounded the table calling for segregation, and McCord paid more attention to business issues but was a segregationist too by and large.

Anti-Communism was another big sentiment. MacArthur relied on his strong military credentials to propose a nationwide crackdown on Communism and a tougher strategy abroad. Thurmond focused many on domestic issues, calling for a Department of Anti Communism within the NPB to investigate suspects. McCord supported passing laws to limit Socialist activity throughout and investigating the Bull Moose Party. Thurmond and McCord openly called for the arrest of New York Mayor Vito Marcantonio and other Bull Moose leaders.

Despite McCord's business focus, MacArthur garnered the support of Texas oilman HL Hunt, Fred Koch, and large business organizations who helped bankroll his campaign. Most northern, western, and midwestern Conservative Party members backed him. McCord got support from an eclectic coalition of growing Evangelical groups, 'soft' segregationists, and farmers. Thurmond of course marshaled the backing of the most hardcore segregationist faction.

MacArthur used his popularity to vanquish his foes. To reinforce his tough message he selected popular anti-Communist Wisconsin Senator Joseph McCarthy as VP.

[anthonyjg]

Very Interesting Timeline!!!

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Setting Up 1952

On the home front, things appear to be slightly uneasy. There is a backlash to racial integration among many white communities, especially in the South, where racial violence flares up occasionally. DOJ intervention in a number of hate crime investigations in the early 1950's caused clash with Southern Conservative political leaders, including Alabama Governor Chauncey Sparks, who sent out the national guard to surround a courthouse and prevent federal investigators from doing their job. After a weeklong standoff, Sparks gave in and the investigation continued. This high amount of tension in the South could spell either a massive backlash or a seeking of normalcy by the general public. There is also a controversy brewing over education. Inaugural Secretary of Education James Mead introduced a set of guidelines that would severely restrict the existence of private schools. This proposal, meant to curb segregation, has enraged many Northern Urban Whites and those in the South as well. Some in congress are calling his rules an overreach and asking him to step down.

The economy is beginning to decline with inflation rising alongside unemployment. While there hasn't been any big crash, consumer spending is slowing too. Some speculate this could be leading to more tensions at home and potentially a major economic slowdown.

The US, fresh off a victory in Greece (with foreign aid to anti-communists) now faces a potential showdown with the USSR over Iran. This worrisome situation has divided the American public. Some believe that only the US can win back Iran and expand influence in the Middle East, but others believe the UFN should solve the crisis. The Iran fiasco is widely seen as a leadership failure on behalf of the president, and is considered a negative mark on his record.

Platforms
Republicans: Negotiating a diplomatic UFN solution to the Iran crisis, continuing federal implementation of Civil Rights, cutting more social spending, ending machine politics
Bull Moose:  Full implementation of Civil Rights Act, universal healthcare, a massive education spending bill, diplomacy with USSR over Iran, cutting military spending, direct payments to poor people
Democratic: Universal healthcare in conjunction with the private sector, compromising on Civil Rights Act implementation, sending troops to Iran, expanding trade with Western Europe and Latin America, fighting corruption
Conservative: Halting implementation of CRA, national Right to Work law, invading Iran, investigating Communists at home

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Demographic Analysis
(I figured it would be cool to break down how different groups are voting at this point, quite different than OTL for some)

Blacks: Split between Bull Moose, Democratic, and Republican. The poorer communities tend to support the Bull Moose party while those who own land or businesses are generally Republican. Some in majority Black areas are Democratic simply out of tradition, including in Northern cities that used to have strong machines.

Hispanics: Still a small voting block, but they mostly live in the Southwest and vote for Democrats although they are considered a swing demographic.

Italians, Irish, Poles: Tend to vote Democratic, especially Catholics. In recent years, because of dogwhistle politics from the Conservative Party, some have shifted allegiance. In strong union communities, there is generally a Bull Moose presence.

Jewish Americans: Split between Bull Moose and Republicans, generally based on class.

Asians: Pretty solid Bull Moose party bloc although again, more affluent communities have more Republican support.

Mormons: Used to be solidly for the GOP but now mostly Conservative. Popular Utah governor Ezra Taft Benson is considered a leader of the Conservative Party's Mormon wing. Last cycle, paired with Bull Moose support from Salt Lake City, old-school Republicans were able to win Utah.

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1952 General Election

Fmr. General Douglas MacArthur [AR] / Senator Joe McCarthy [WI]-224-33%
Senator Estes Kefauver [TN] / Senator Harry Truman [MO]-126-32%
President Earl Warren [CA] /  Senator Eugene Millikin [CO]-116-21%
VP Matthew Neely [WV] / Mayor Vito Marcantonio [NY]-65-15%

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Results Analysis
For the first time ever, the US will have a president from the Conservative Party. With a well oiled anti-communism, anti-CRA campaign, Douglas MacArthur profited from his experience and name recognition to beat his challengers. A number of states were very closely fought between Estes Kefauver and Douglas MacArthur, reflected in the close popular vote total. The fearmongering conducted by Conservatives paid off.

In the end, MacArthur's attacks on Kefauver as 'weak on Communism' damaged him severely. The South swung heavily towards the Conservatives, despite sticking to Democrats downballot. Black turnout was quite low, especially in the South. Conservatives, for the first time, broke into Northeast and Midwestern regions outside of the Great Plains. This was a direct result of anti-Communism and McCarthy's presence on the ticket. While these areas are not necesarily opposed to civil rights, Mead's education guidelines, which Sen. Kefauver didn't take much of a stance on, harmed the standing of Democrats in the North and Midwest.

Republicans, uncoupled from their Bull Moose allies and tarnished by gridlock and uncertainty, suffered greatly on the presidential level, losing serious ground to Conservatives in most places.

The Bull Moose Party made a strong comeback from a time of seeming inactivity. By distancing themselves from the bad parts of the Warren-Neely administration and sticking to the parts that played well with their base, the Bull Moose Party gained ground. Strong mining union support and hometown backing in WV actually delivered the state to Neely. New York flipped thanks to Marcantonio's high levels of support in and around NYC. Black support across the country led many states to swing towards the party too.

Congressional Results
Winners:
Conservative Party: Gained in the Midwest, South, West-including pick ups by: Barry Goldwater (AZ-SEN), Scoop Jackson [a moderate by party standards] (WA-SEN), George W. Reese (LA-1)
Bull Moose Party: Gained modestly in Northeast, West, even South inc. pick ups by-John Sherman Cooper (KY-SEN), Hugh Mulzac (NY-5), Wright Patman (TX-SEN),

Losers:
Democratic Party: Took modest losses across the US, including the South. Did alright in the North.-gained a few inc. John F. Kennedy (MA-SEN)
Republican Party: Lost huge all over

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Round One of MacArthur
March 1953-Over the objections of a growing peace movement, troops are dispatched to Iran to solve the USSR/Iran crisis
April 1953-Congress fails to approve an expanded ground campaign in Iran, and President MacArthur commits to bombing Iranian targets held by USSR allies, working with the UK
June 1953-A national television campaign begins to warn Americans about the dangers of Communism
September 1953-President MacArthur, appoints UVA President Colgate Darden, an avowed anti-Communist wary of integration, as his education secretary
November 1953-USSR backed troops in Iran make gains and MacArthur calls for additional troops, which he finally gets
January 1954-A moderate supreme court justice passes away, and President MacArthur nominates segregationist South Carolina judge Henry Mecklen*, who is barely confirmed
June 1954-The Supreme Court weighs in on a school desegregation case and puts Article I of the Racial Equality Law on hold with a 5-4 decision
July 1954-Bull Moose and Northern Republican members of congress draw up a compromise to rewrite part I but it falls just short of passage
October 1954-The war rages on and American troops seem underequipped. The public is especially divided, and the war becomes the focal point of the upcoming campaign.

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Midterms

Voters, disappointed with President MacArthur's seeming inaction on the economy and controversial war in Iran, had soured on him by the midterm election. All three other parties vocally opposed the Conservatives from various angles, putting them on the defensive. The Southern Conservative base, however, is pleased with the president's record on race, especially with the blocking of school integration. In essence, this assures that the South will remain in Conservative hands.

Conservative Party: Lost senate seats (NH, ID, DE, IA, KS), lost house seats in Midwest and West
Democratic Party: Gained senate seats (KS, DE, MA), lost (CO), gained some Midwestern and Southwestern house seats
Bull Moose Party: Gained senate seat (ID), gained rural Northern and Midwestern House seats
Republican Party: Gained senate seat (CO) lost (MA), gained some Western House seats and a few in New England