Poll: Hillary Clinton Leads Donald Trump by 51 Points Among Florida Hispanics

[MT Treasurer]

http://www.latinodecisions.com/files/7814/6129/1443/AV_Wave_1_2016_FL_Posted.pdf

Clinton vs. Trump: 69%-18%
Clinton vs. Cruz: 58%-36%
Sanders vs. Trump: 64%-20%
Sanders vs. Cruz: 49%-40%

Favorable/Unfavorable split for each candidate:

Clinton: 59/37
Sanders: 48/35
Trump: 12/84
Cruz: 41/45
Kasich: 34/36

http://www.miaminewtimes.com/news/hillary-clinton-leads-donald-trump-by-51-points-among-florida-hispanics-8409537

Obama won FL Hispanics by 21 points (60-39) in 2012.

[Virginiá]

If Hispanic turnout goes up (which it most certainly will, probably by a lot) and Clinton gets those kinds of Hispanic vote shares (vs Trump) in Florida, the state is hers. And not just by a hair, either. The Cruz matchup numbers are not good for Republicans, either.

[IceSpear]

Yeah, if these numbers are remotely accurate, FL would be a safe D state. Muh whites wouldn't be enough to save Trump. Luckily for Trump, the election isn't tomorrow. We'll see if his "rebranding" convinces Hispanics as well as it convinced the pundits.

Also, Hillary is way more popular than Bernie among Hispanics. His numbers against Cruz are pitiful. Where are jfern and ProgressiveCanadian?

#HispanicsloveHillary

[Antonio the Sixth]

Weren't GE polls supposed to be meaningless at this stage?

Again, Democrats, starting to celebrate victory now is the best way to lose in November.

[Virginiá]

Weren't GE polls supposed to be meaningless at this stage?

Again, Democrats, starting to celebrate victory now is the best way to lose in November.

They are somewhat meaningless because things can and will change the state of the election, but with Trump, those numbers are not going to change substantially. Cruz likely won't fair much better.

To me, I see a continuation of a realignment of Hispanic voting patterns in Florida that has been taking place for years now. It shows how Republicans are getting weaker in statewide races there, over time. 69% of the FL Hispanic vote for a Democrat would have been unthinkable even before 2012, and it should worry Republicans.

And if you notice the undecided's/don't know's - That means Clinton could actually do even better against Trump or Cruz.

[ElectionsGuy]

Anybody want to predict Miami-Dade in a Clinton vs Trump matchup? I'm thinking this...

Clinton: 68%
Trump: 31%

[Ronnie]

I think it might be because he reminds the Cubans a little too much of Fidel.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Weren't GE polls supposed to be meaningless at this stage?

Again, Democrats, starting to celebrate victory now is the best way to lose in November.

They are somewhat meaningless because things can and will change the state of the election, but with Trump, those numbers are not going to change substantially. Cruz likely won't fair much better.

To me, I see a continuation of a realignment of Hispanic voting patterns in Florida that has been taking place for years now. It shows how Republicans are getting weaker in statewide races there, over time. 69% of the FL Hispanic vote for a Democrat would have been unthinkable even before 2012, and it should worry Republicans.

And if you notice the undecided's/don't know's - That means Clinton could actually do even better against Trump or Cruz.

I'd certainly like to hope so, but so much can change in 7 months that I don't really want to think in these terms yet.

[Virginiá]

I'd certainly like to hope so, but so much can change in 7 months that I don't really want to think in these terms yet.

Yeah. I really shouldn't either, but I'm obsessed with data and trends and this kind of stuff makes me salivate when thinking about the implications

[Antonio the Sixth]

I'd certainly like to hope so, but so much can change in 7 months that I don't really want to think in these terms yet.

Yeah. I really shouldn't either, but I'm obsessed with data and trends and this kind of stuff makes me salivate when thinking about the implications

Oh, I know the feeling. In late 2013 I was salivating at the prospect of Democrats retaking the House in the wake of the GOP's failed government shutdown. And then...

[Nyvin]

Actually this is sort of the beginning of the timeframe where General election polls start to matter more.

[heatcharger]

I'd love to see a poll of Texas Hispanics to see if there's any remote chance of it being competitive.

[Adam Griffin]

If Hispanic turnout goes up (which it most certainly will, probably by a lot) and Clinton gets those kinds of Hispanic vote shares (vs Trump) in Florida, the state is hers. And not just by a hair, either. The Cruz matchup numbers are not good for Republicans, either.

Yeah, if these numbers are remotely accurate, FL would be a safe D state. Muh whites wouldn't be enough to save Trump. Luckily for Trump, the election isn't tomorrow. We'll see if his "rebranding" convinces Hispanics as well as it convinced the pundits.

Also, Hillary is way more popular than Bernie among Hispanics. His numbers against Cruz are pitiful. Where are jfern and ProgressiveCanadian?

#HispanicsloveHillary

I wouldn't say that it'd go up by a ton or that it'd even be completely safe. If you bump Latinos to 20% of the electorate (from 17% in 2012) completely at the cost of whites, take the two-way support for Clinton/Trump (79 Clinton, 20 Trump) and revert black support to 90% (was 95% in 2012), then it's a 51-48 Clinton victory. That's comparable to Obama's 2008 haul.

The Latino vote as a powerful force in Florida is overrated, frankly (especially when you consider that a good chunk are Cubans and water down the overall Latino vote's potency for any one party), and the only reason it tends to be important is because the state is often so close.

[Holmes]

Sanders would so lose Florida.

[IceSpear]

If Hispanic turnout goes up (which it most certainly will, probably by a lot) and Clinton gets those kinds of Hispanic vote shares (vs Trump) in Florida, the state is hers. And not just by a hair, either. The Cruz matchup numbers are not good for Republicans, either.

Yeah, if these numbers are remotely accurate, FL would be a safe D state. Muh whites wouldn't be enough to save Trump. Luckily for Trump, the election isn't tomorrow. We'll see if his "rebranding" convinces Hispanics as well as it convinced the pundits.

Also, Hillary is way more popular than Bernie among Hispanics. His numbers against Cruz are pitiful. Where are jfern and ProgressiveCanadian?

#HispanicsloveHillary

I wouldn't say that it'd go up by a ton or that it'd even be completely safe. If you bump Latinos to 20% of the electorate (from 17% in 2012) completely at the cost of whites, take the two-way support for Clinton/Trump (79 Clinton, 20 Trump) and revert black support to 90% (was 95% in 2012), then it's a 51-48 Clinton victory. That's comparable to Obama's 2008 haul.

The Latino vote as a powerful force in Florida is overrated, frankly (especially when you consider that a good chunk are Cubans and water down the overall Latino vote's potency for any one party), and the only reason it tends to be important is because the state is often so close.

I'm avoiding third parties for simplicity here.

Whites (64%): 62-38 Trump
Blacks (13%): 90-10 Clinton
Hispanics (20%): 75-25 Clinton
Other (3%): 60-40 Clinton

This gives me a 53-47 election. Trump would need to win the white vote by slightly more than 2:1 in order to win the state by a hair. I don't see that as particularly feasible in a state like Florida.

[Adam Griffin]

If Hispanic turnout goes up (which it most certainly will, probably by a lot) and Clinton gets those kinds of Hispanic vote shares (vs Trump) in Florida, the state is hers. And not just by a hair, either. The Cruz matchup numbers are not good for Republicans, either.

Yeah, if these numbers are remotely accurate, FL would be a safe D state. Muh whites wouldn't be enough to save Trump. Luckily for Trump, the election isn't tomorrow. We'll see if his "rebranding" convinces Hispanics as well as it convinced the pundits.

Also, Hillary is way more popular than Bernie among Hispanics. His numbers against Cruz are pitiful. Where are jfern and ProgressiveCanadian?

#HispanicsloveHillary

I wouldn't say that it'd go up by a ton or that it'd even be completely safe. If you bump Latinos to 20% of the electorate (from 17% in 2012) completely at the cost of whites, take the two-way support for Clinton/Trump (79 Clinton, 20 Trump) and revert black support to 90% (was 95% in 2012), then it's a 51-48 Clinton victory. That's comparable to Obama's 2008 haul.

The Latino vote as a powerful force in Florida is overrated, frankly (especially when you consider that a good chunk are Cubans and water down the overall Latino vote's potency for any one party), and the only reason it tends to be important is because the state is often so close.

I'm avoiding third parties for simplicity here.

Whites (64%): 62-38 Trump
Blacks (13%): 90-10 Clinton
Hispanics (20%): 75-25 Clinton
Other (3%): 60-40 Clinton

This gives me a 53-47 election. Trump would need to win the white vote by slightly more than 2:1 in order to win the state by a hair. I don't see that as particularly feasible in a state like Florida.

Crap. I left out "others".

Still, I stand by the broader sentiment that FL Latinos aren't nearly as influential as they are in some other states. In fact (and I wish I could find the post), Latinos in general are not very influential in many states at all. If I recall correctly and on a uniform scale, not a single swing state would have flipped to Romney in 2012 unless he had got 45-46% of the Latino vote.

[dspNY]

http://www.latinodecisions.com/files/7814/6129/1443/AV_Wave_1_2016_FL_Posted.pdf

Clinton vs. Trump: 69%-18%
Clinton vs. Cruz: 58%-36%
Sanders vs. Trump: 64%-20%
Sanders vs. Cruz: 49%-40%

Favorable/Unfavorable split for each candidate:

Clinton: 59/37
Sanders: 48/35
Trump: 12/84
Cruz: 41/45
Kasich: 34/36

http://www.miaminewtimes.com/news/hillary-clinton-leads-donald-trump-by-51-points-among-florida-hispanics-8409537

Obama won FL Hispanics by 21 points (60-39) in 2012.

Cruz would actually win FL against Sanders with that split, which backs Clinton's electability argument

[Landslide Lyndon]

Em, I don't think that Clinton will perform appreciably worse with blacks against an opponent who refused to denounce the KKK and opposes putting Harriet Tubman on the 20 dollar bill.

[Zache]

I was wondering why Sanders consistently underperforms Clinton in Florida GE polls, contrary to pretty much every other swing state, and this pretty much answers my question. Cubans just don't like him that much.

[Coolface Sock #42069]

I'd love to see a poll of Texas Hispanics to see if there's any remote chance of it being competitive.

I think they'd have to go about 95% D for Texas to flip without Dems improving with whites. The numbers just aren't there. It would take a third-party effort to flip Texas.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Even Trump will win TX and OK. But GOP can't win without FL.