County Map Guesses for April 26th Elections

[ElectionsGuy]

My take:





All colors are the same as the Atlas colors used for each candidate.

[Ronnie]

The GOP map looks really good, but PA seems a tad bullish on Trump.  I think Kasich will win Allegheny county, and Cruz should win a few more counties in the 'T'.  

[bigedlb]

My take:





All colors are the same as the Atlas colors used for each candidate.

how is Kasich going to sweep everything?

[Fuzzybigfoot]

Is the Pennsylvania primary going to be closed?  I have the feeling that if it is, the results will parallel those in Ohio, with Bernie Sanders winning a small handful of counties with small populations while being destroyed virtually everywhere else.  

[Ronnie]

how is Kasich going to sweep everything?

In the bottom map, Kasich is red, Cruz is yellow, and Trump is orange.

[The Other Castro]

In CT, I feel like Kasich may win Fairfield County while Sanders wins Tolland and Litchfield.

[Ronnie]

In CT, I feel like Kasich may win Fairfield County while Sanders wins Tolland and Litchfield.

Kasich will run up the score in certain towns along the Gold Coast, but I think Trump still wins Fairfield County by a decent margin.  Westchester County, NY might be a good reference point.

[IceSpear]

Is the Pennsylvania primary going to be closed?  I have the felling that if it is, the results will parallel those in Ohio, with Bernie Sanders winning a small handful of counties with small populations while being destroyed virtually everywhere else.  

It is closed, but there are still some Dixiecrats in Western PA, which will help him. Not nearly as much as in states like West Virginia, but still a decent amount. My theory is that the only reason Hillary did so well in coal country in Ohio/Virginia was because all the Dixiecrats crossed over to vote for Trump, as those were open primaries. So far, the only state we've seen where Dixiecrats were forced to choose between Hillary and Bernie was Oklahoma, and we all know what happened there. Western PA, WV, and KY will tell us a lot more in that regard.

That said, I do think it being closed will still be a net gain for Hillary overall, since the Dixiecrats forced to vote will be more than cancelled out by the left wing independents all across the rest of the state that will be unable to vote for Bernie. It's pretty funny how his coalition includes both the left wing and right wing part of the Democratic Party.

[Boston Bread]

Is the Pennsylvania primary going to be closed?  I have the felling that if it is, the results will parallel those in Ohio, with Bernie Sanders winning a small handful of counties with small populations while being destroyed virtually everywhere else.  

New York is closed and Sanders won every rural county, not at all like Ohio.

[catographer]

Your prediction for Pennsylvania and the results in NY remind me of NJ. Clinton and Trump should both easily win all counties in NJ by large margins; it's gonna be ugly for Sanders there.

[ElectionsGuy]

The GOP map looks really good, but PA seems a tad bullish on Trump.  I think Kasich will win Allegheny county, and Cruz should win a few more counties in the 'T'.  

I agree, its just hard to pinpoint. I don't think Kasich will win Allegheny though, he'll do better there, but that's solid Trump territory. Kasich might not even win those suburban counties, I think I'm being pretty generous.

[The Free North]

In CT, I feel like Kasich may win Fairfield County while Sanders wins Tolland and Litchfield.

Kasich wont win Fairfield.....its not all about Greenwich and Darien.

The dem map looks good, Sanders should play well in the whiter areas of CT.

[libertpaulian]

What tool do you use to make those county predictions?  I'd like to make a map myself.

[ElectionsGuy]

What tool do you use to make those county predictions?  I'd like to make a map myself.

I just used paint and colored the counties in.

[Ronnie]

If Trump wins a majority statewide in PA, is it possible he carries every county?

[IceSpear]

If Trump wins a majority statewide in PA, is it possible he carries every county?

It's possible, but chances are at least one or two random rural counties will go to Cruz.

[Gass3268]

If Trump wins a majority statewide in PA, is it possible he carries every county?

It's possible, but chances are at least one or two random rural counties will go to Cruz.

Plus I imagine the Amish influence in Lancaster County isn't great for Trump.

[angus]

Last year:
"When I am elected president, that group of bonnet wearing buffoons can go back to Holland, as far as I care.  Holland, Netherlands, whatever you want to call ’em. A bunch of tulip loving, wooden shoed freaks. They can take take their filthy beards and make some barns over there in the dark. This is America!”

This year:
“I love the Amish. Love ‘em. And the Amish know what it means to build. They use those little hand screws. With the hats, all black, very nice. They all work together to raise their house or barn or whatever. Very nice. I know what you’re thinking and yes, I could grow a beard – but if I’m president we’d move a whole lot faster. We’d get a line of trucks in here and they’ll be the biggest barns you’ve ever seen, believe me.”

[sportydude]

It is closed, but there are still some Dixiecrats in Western PA, which will help him. Not nearly as much as in states like West Virginia, but still a decent amount. My theory is that the only reason Hillary did so well in coal country in Ohio/Virginia was because all the Dixiecrats crossed over to vote for Trump, as those were open primaries. So far, the only states we've seen where Dixiecrats were forced to choose between Hillary and Bernie were Oklahoma + North Carolina, and we all know what happened there. Western PA, WV, and KY will tell us a lot more in that regard.

[Torie]

If Trump wins a majority statewide in PA, is it possible he carries every county?

It's possible, but chances are at least one or two random rural counties will go to Cruz.

Plus I imagine the Amish influence in Lancaster County isn't great for Trump.

Most Amish don't vote.

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

It looks like you are almost right on with the GOP picks EG. Why do you have Trump in Allegheny though? All indications are he will get crushed there by Kasich. Unless you see vote splitting, which doesn't make much sense to me.

[Ronnie]

It looks like you are almost right on with the GOP picks EG. Why do you have Trump in Allegheny though? All indications are he will get crushed there by Kasich. Unless you see vote splitting, which doesn't make much sense to me.

Trump is up by over 19 points in Pittsburgh metro according to Opinion Savvy:
http://opinionsavvy.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/04/OS-PA-Republican-4.25.16-Full.pdf

His weakest region is S. Central, where he's still up by double digits.

[Holmes]

I think Cruz will have a strong showing in the central PA counties where Santorum reached ~25%, not that it'll mean anything. Or maybe that was just residual home state advantage. Honestly I wouldn't be surprised if Trump swept everything save for a couple of counties.

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

It looks like you are almost right on with the GOP picks EG. Why do you have Trump in Allegheny though? All indications are he will get crushed there by Kasich. Unless you see vote splitting, which doesn't make much sense to me.

Trump is up by over 19 points in Pittsburgh metro according to Opinion Savvy:
http://opinionsavvy.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/04/OS-PA-Republican-4.25.16-Full.pdf

His weakest region is S. Central, where he's still up by double digits.

Hadn't seen this, thank you. Good to note that he's also leading the Philadelphia metro by a similar margin, except with the opposite phenomenon. He leads in the city proper but is probably getting beat in DelCo and MontCo (and possibly Lancaster close?) The metro area and city proper can be quite different. Perhaps some of the suburbs in the county can keep it close, but I still think Kasich pulls it out.

This is what Franklin & Marshall found -

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[NerdyBohemian]

Town map for Rhode Island. I think Hilldawg wins with 53% give or take. I forgot New Shoreham but it will also go to Sanders.