2017: NJ Gubernatorial/legislative elections

[Suburbia]

If Murphy's monstrous lead holds in November, do Dems have an actual shot at obtaining a supermajority in both houses? I know they need 3 seats in the Senate, and one pickup is all-but guaranteed with Diane Allen retiring, but who are their rumored candidates against Addiego, Bateman, and Bucco? I know they have a strong challenger against Beck already, but there's a lot of other Clinton-R seats on the table.

And they just need 2 in the Assembly, and Chris Brown's and Ciattarelli's open seats are the obvious targets, but there's also a few other Clinton-R seats.

Any NJ posters have insights?

If that happens, Tom Kean and Jon Bramnick, both from NJ's 21st district are done. N.J. GOP may need new leaders in the Senate and Assembly. Kean and Bramnick are already seen as RINOS, and they are seen as men who could beat Menendez, Torricelli, or Fulop in the 2018 Senate election.

If N.J. Democrats have a supermajority in the Legislature, it will be a good night for the Democrats. However, if in 2019, a Gov. Murphy is unpopular, the GOP could pick up one of the chambers for the first time since 2001.

Poor Diane Allen. She is a moderate Republican. She may never run for office again.
http://observer.com/2017/01/nj-state-senator-diane-allen-to-retire/

[Virginiá]

However, if in 2019, a Gov. Murphy is unpopular, the GOP could pick up one of the chambers for the first time since 2001.

Why? What about 2019 and NJ suggests that will happen? I'd say until verifiable trends or other evidence suggest so, I doubt NJ Democrats are losing any chambers in the Trump era.

[Suburbia]

However, if in 2019, a Gov. Murphy is unpopular, the GOP could pick up one of the chambers for the first time since 2001.

Why? What about 2019 and NJ suggests that will happen? I'd say until verifiable trends or other evidence suggest so, I doubt NJ Democrats are losing any chambers in the Trump era.

N.J. is one of the highest taxed states in the nation. If Phil Murphy raises taxes in his first two years as N.J. governor, voters are going to be fed up. New Jersey has had a tax problem for decades now, and it has helped Republicans in the past (Christie Todd Whitman in '93, Chris Christie in '09). Anything can happen, and the N.J. GOP could come back sooner than later.

[Fusionmunster]

However, if in 2019, a Gov. Murphy is unpopular, the GOP could pick up one of the chambers for the first time since 2001.

Why? What about 2019 and NJ suggests that will happen? I'd say until verifiable trends or other evidence suggest so, I doubt NJ Democrats are losing any chambers in the Trump era.

N.J. is one of the highest taxed states in the nation. If Phil Murphy raises taxes in his first two years as N.J. governor, voters are going to be fed up. New Jersey has had a tax problem for decades now, and it has helped Republicans in the past (Christie Todd Whitman in '93, Chris Christie in '09). Anything can happen, and the N.J. GOP could come back sooner than later.

N.J voters are always fed up, and they always vote democrat regardless. Chris Christie won in 2009 because he was running against an unpopular incumbent who was a former wall street executive during the recession.

[Suburbia]

A few things:

1. Bernie holds off on endorsing Wisniewski, cites the fact that his supporters are split between him and Murphy (I'm guessing the CWA played a part in this). http://www.politico.com/states/new-jersey/story/2017/01/bernie-sanders-not-endorsing-109114

2. Bernie's son Levi endorses Murphy, will campaign with him http://www.politico.com/states/new-jersey/story/2017/01/bernie-sanders-son-endorses-murphy-109110

Then there's no way Murphy is at risk

Jeff Weaver endorses Wisniewski!

Wisniewski is toast IMO but I would prefer him over Menendez in 2018 Senate race!

I'd prefer Lesniak but dude's 70 unfortunately.

Lesniak would be a good Congressman in 2018 against Albio Sires in a primary, or if Menendez retires/resigns in 2017-18, or if Booker retires in 2020 to run for president or vice president. He would be 74 in 2020, but we have a lot of 70-year old senators.

[Suburbia]

However, if in 2019, a Gov. Murphy is unpopular, the GOP could pick up one of the chambers for the first time since 2001.

Why? What about 2019 and NJ suggests that will happen? I'd say until verifiable trends or other evidence suggest so, I doubt NJ Democrats are losing any chambers in the Trump era.

N.J. is one of the highest taxed states in the nation. If Phil Murphy raises taxes in his first two years as N.J. governor, voters are going to be fed up. New Jersey has had a tax problem for decades now, and it has helped Republicans in the past (Christie Todd Whitman in '93, Chris Christie in '09). Anything can happen, and the N.J. GOP could come back sooner than later.

N.J voters are always fed up, and they always vote democrat regardless. Chris Christie won in 2009 because he was running against an unpopular incumbent who was a former wall street executive during the recession.

True. I don't know why. All my years living in NJ, I always wonder why. I think after Kean left Trenton in 1990, Florio, Whitman, DiFrancesco, McGreevey, etc. haven't explained the taxes situation well to voters. They have their State of the State addresses at 2 p.m., when most New Jerseyans are at work.

[Nyvin]

The last time the Republicans won a legislative majority in NJ...they were electing people like Christine Whitman.    Whitman would make Susan Collins look like a hardcore conservative.  

I don't really think it's possible to shift the party that far left from where it is now, especially during the Trump Era.    A GOP Majority in either legislative chamber seems pretty far fetched.

[LabourJersey]

Much of the reason that New Jerseyans don't vote Republican for anyone but Governor is mostly because the Nat'l Republican offer most of the moderate voters in the state nothing. Many of the moderates in NJ are non-white, and most have college degrees--this was not a recipe for GOP vote in the Bush era, Tea Party era and certainly not the Trump era.

Governor is the only exception mostly because a lot of the general anti-tax sentiment often gets projected onto the governor, and many center-left voters didn't particularly mind a GOP governor and a Dem legislature. I think that has changed during Christie, and I personally think he poisoned the well for the NJ Republicans, but that remains to be seen.

No one knows how Murphy would do as governor, but I don't think it's possible for the GOP to win one of the legislative chambers in '19, short of Jeff Sessions purging the voter rolls in NJ to eliminate anyone with a Hispanic or Indian surname.

[MAINEiac4434]

The last time the Republicans won a legislative majority in NJ...they were electing people like Christine Whitman.    Whitman would make Susan Collins look like a hardcore conservative.  

I don't really think it's possible to shift the party that far left from where it is now, especially during the Drumpf Era.    A GOP Majority in either legislative chamber seems pretty far fetched.

Susan Collins is a hardcore conservative.

/obnoxious leftism

[pikachu]

It's also worth remembering that the NJ legislature is extremely inelastic because it's an incumbent protection plan.

[PMHub]

The last time the Republicans won a legislative majority in NJ...they were electing people like Christine Whitman.    Whitman would make Susan Collins look like a hardcore conservative.  

I don't really think it's possible to shift the party that far left from where it is now, especially during the Trump Era.    A GOP Majority in either legislative chamber seems pretty far fetched.

It's certainly not possible in 2019. Diane Allen's seat is an auto-D gain. So that's 25. Then let's assume D's don't gain anymore seats than that in 2017 (unlikely, but for the sake of argument). Republicans could hypothetically win the 1st, 2nd, and 3rd districts in South Jersey, but that's incredibly unlikely. Sweeney is safe as long as Norcross retains any power. So is Van Drew. Where else does the GOP pick up any D-held seat? All the other D seats at that point are Hillary 60+% seats.

Yeah, and considering the political winds in that state, NJ Dems probably have nothing to fear

[henster]

I really like Fulop he has a great profile and would be a huge boost to Ds on the national level. Sadly, his paths are blocked by Murphy & Norcross who will likely take the Gov & Menendez's seat.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

I really like Fulop he has a great profile and would be a huge boost to Ds on the national level. Sadly, his paths are blocked by Murphy & Norcross who will likely take the Gov & Menendez's seat.

I'd like to see Pallone get the Senate seat, tbh.  There may be better-ish folks out there (then again this is NJ, so maybe not), but AFAIK, Pallone's not bad for NJ and it'd be nice to have someone who isn't from Essex or Hudson County and isn't part of the Norcross/Sweeney machine in one of the Senate seats (Codey won't get it and Rush Holt is really a has-been at this point).  Pallone has the best shot of anyone who meets those criteria of being chosen.  Sadly, it'll probably either go to one of the North Jersey machine folks (maybe Alberto Sires or some Mayor/rich dude/state legislator...hopefully it at least won't be completely soulless machine hack like Ras Baraka) or worse yet, Donald Norcross (although at least geography would probably keep him out of the running as I doubt very many northern county machines would give him the top slot on the primary ballot). 

[henster]

I really like Fulop he has a great profile and would be a huge boost to Ds on the national level. Sadly, his paths are blocked by Murphy & Norcross who will likely take the Gov & Menendez's seat.

I'd like to see Pallone get the Senate seat, tbh.  There may be better-ish folks out there (then again this is NJ, so maybe not), but AFAIK, Pallone's not bad for NJ and it'd be nice to have someone who isn't from Essex or Hudson County and isn't part of the Norcross/Sweeney machine in one of the Senate seats (Codey won't get it and Rush Holt is really a has-been at this point).  Pallone has the best shot of anyone who meets those criteria of being chosen.  Sadly, it'll probably either go to one of the North Jersey machine folks (maybe Alberto Sires or some Mayor/rich dude/state legislator...hopefully it at least won't be completely soulless machine hack like Ras Baraka) or worse yet, Donald Norcross (although at least geography would probably keep him out of the running as I doubt very many northern county machines would give him the top slot on the primary ballot). 

I like Pallone but he is 65, I think the Senate D caucus in general needs younger pols. Also younger means more potential seniority for the state. I just want to see more Bookers, Gillibrands, Murphys in the Senate right now.

[hopper]

However, if in 2019, a Gov. Murphy is unpopular, the GOP could pick up one of the chambers for the first time since 2001.

Why? What about 2019 and NJ suggests that will happen? I'd say until verifiable trends or other evidence suggest so, I doubt NJ Democrats are losing any chambers in the Trump era.

N.J. is one of the highest taxed states in the nation. If Phil Murphy raises taxes in his first two years as N.J. governor, voters are going to be fed up. New Jersey has had a tax problem for decades now, and it has helped Republicans in the past (Christie Todd Whitman in '93, Chris Christie in '09). Anything can happen, and the N.J. GOP could come back sooner than later.

N.J voters are always fed up, and they always vote democrat regardless. Chris Christie won in 2009 because he was running against an unpopular incumbent who was a former wall street executive during the recession.

Well for Governor not so much. The same party hasn't held the Governorship for 3 straight terms in a long while.

[hopper]

I honestly don't understand the Kean obsession among certain people on this forum. He's a perfectly fine State Senator and Minority Leader, but he really doesn't have much charisma or charm.

He only did as well as he did in the 2006 Senate race because Menendez was unknown, and because many people still remembered his father fondly. However, no one under the age of 25 knew who Tom Kean Sr. was; now few people under 40 do, so his name recognition isn't what it used to be.

He could beat Menendez or Torricelli convincingly in 2018. Just because it is a Trump/Pence midterm in 2018, doesn't mean that Democrats are going to do well. Kean, Webber, or Rich Bagger could beat Menendez/Torricelli in 2018.

NJ is too non-white to elect a Republican US Senator.

[Suburbia]

I honestly don't understand the Kean obsession among certain people on this forum. He's a perfectly fine State Senator and Minority Leader, but he really doesn't have much charisma or charm.

He only did as well as he did in the 2006 Senate race because Menendez was unknown, and because many people still remembered his father fondly. However, no one under the age of 25 knew who Tom Kean Sr. was; now few people under 40 do, so his name recognition isn't what it used to be.

He could beat Menendez or Torricelli convincingly in 2018. Just because it is a Trump/Pence midterm in 2018, doesn't mean that Democrats are going to do well. Kean, Webber, or Rich Bagger could beat Menendez/Torricelli in 2018.

NJ is too non-white to elect a Republican US Senator.

Really? I think a Kyrillos or a Kean could do well with minority voters. NJ will elect a GOP Senator, soon. Menendez or Torricelli could lose if they are unpopular.

[hopper]

I honestly don't understand the Kean obsession among certain people on this forum. He's a perfectly fine State Senator and Minority Leader, but he really doesn't have much charisma or charm.

He only did as well as he did in the 2006 Senate race because Menendez was unknown, and because many people still remembered his father fondly. However, no one under the age of 25 knew who Tom Kean Sr. was; now few people under 40 do, so his name recognition isn't what it used to be.

He could beat Menendez or Torricelli convincingly in 2018. Just because it is a Trump/Pence midterm in 2018, doesn't mean that Democrats are going to do well. Kean, Webber, or Rich Bagger could beat Menendez/Torricelli in 2018.

NJ is too non-white to elect a Republican US Senator.

Really? I think a Kyrillos or a Kean could do well with minority voters. NJ will elect a GOP Senator, soon. Menendez or Torricelli could lose if they are unpopular.

Booker.

[houseonaboat]

Fairleigh Dickinson poll

Among Democrats:

Murphy - 17%
Lesniak - 7% (!)
Wisniewski - 6%
Jim Johnson - 2%
Other - 17%
Undecided - 50%

Among Republicans:

Guadagno - 18%
Piscopo - 11%
Someone else - 13%
Rogers - 2%
Ciattarelli - 2%
Undecided - 52%

Quick thoughts:

1. That Lesniak number is brutal if you're Wiz. a.) You're coming in third in a two-way primary and b.) Lesniak + Wiz combined still significantly trails Murphy.

2. These numbers are pretty good, but not outstanding, for Murphy. I haven't checked the methodology of the poll yet but if FDU just polled registered Dems (vs likely primary voters) than that 50% number won't budge until like May. Murphy's clearing the field relative to his next closest competitors which is good.

3. Jim Johnson, doing surprisingly well, all things considered.

4. That Ciattarelli number... man. He's probably the best candidate Rs have against Murphy as well.

5. That Piscopo number isn't that unsurprising given, again, that most of these candidates are unknown to a majority of voters.

6. No poll really matters if Murphy has the line in every county (which he does). That's gonna be the biggest barrier for Wiz and Lesniak to overcome more than anything else.

[Suburbia]

New Jersey Republicans are probably looking for something new than Lt. Gov. Guadagno. She could run for Senate in 2018 or 2020, or a congressional seat.

Ciattarelli is the most electable N.J. Republican, but he is unknown outside of Somerset County.

Rogers is a fringe candidate, but can gain steam if Guadango's polls go down.

People will pay more attention in the spring. There needs to be debates on TV so viewers can be informed.

I wonder who Christie will endorse? He's already toxic politically. 

[houseonaboat]

Interesting update (I told y'all that this race would get interesting!): Wisniewski won the endorsement of the Princeton Democratic Committee in a public election with something like 60% of the vote in the second round. This isn't that surprising, given that Princeton is one of the progressive bastions of the state (this was Rush Holt's district), but this was also the first forum to feature all four candidates (Murphy, Lesniak, Wisniewski, and Jim Johnson) and Wiz won the vote among Princeton Democratic members by a comfortable margin. It'll make a few headlines Monday and Tuesday I'm sure.

FWIW I think Lesniak is gonna drop out at some point -- he finished dead last in the first round at the Princeton convention. Jim Johnson was a thoroughly unspectacular candidate and even with mics was basically speaking at a whisper to the audience. I'll also add that I've finally been to a town hall with each candidate except for Johnson, and Murphy was (to me) by far the most impressive, and I think that was the general consensus in the room I was in as well. So it's not like Murphy's a dead man walking. He's probably the best retail politician in the race, and is running in a very pro-Clinton state, and has deep-rooted pockets of support both in the well-to-do parts of New Jersey as well in urban areas.

tl;dr: Murphy's race to lose. Wiz catching up.

[DK_Mo82]

Interesting update (I told y'all that this race would get interesting!): Wisniewski won the endorsement of the Princeton Democratic Committee in a public election with something like 60% of the vote in the second round. This isn't that surprising, given that Princeton is one of the progressive bastions of the state (this was Rush Holt's district), but this was also the first forum to feature all four candidates (Murphy, Lesniak, Wisniewski, and Jim Johnson) and Wiz won the vote among Princeton Democratic members by a comfortable margin. It'll make a few headlines Monday and Tuesday I'm sure.

FWIW I think Lesniak is gonna drop out at some point -- he finished dead last in the first round at the Princeton convention. Jim Johnson was a thoroughly unspectacular candidate and even with mics was basically speaking at a whisper to the audience. I'll also add that I've finally been to a town hall with each candidate except for Johnson, and Murphy was (to me) by far the most impressive, and I think that was the general consensus in the room I was in as well. So it's not like Murphy's a dead man walking. He's probably the best retail politician in the race, and is running in a very pro-Clinton state, and has deep-rooted pockets of support both in the well-to-do parts of New Jersey as well in urban areas.

tl;dr: Murphy's race to lose. Wiz catching up.

Thanks for all the updates I enjoyed reading them. I am excited about this race. I hope Wiz will win & I think he will unless Murphy overwhelms him with black votes. Teachers unions will be crucial too.

[World politics is up Schmitt creek]

I'm still expecting Murphy to win, but I'd consider anything closer than about 58-42 (or the equivalent percentages of a lower total if Lesniak and/or Johnson stay in) a good sign and a step in the right direction. For reference Clinton beat Sanders 63-37.

[LabourJersey]

I'm still expecting Murphy to win, but I'd consider anything closer than about 58-42 (or the equivalent percentages of a lower total if Lesniak and/or Johnson stay in) a good sign and a step in the right direction. For reference Clinton beat Sanders 63-37.

Agreed-if someone like Wisniewski could win 40%+ of a Dem electorate like New Jersey's, that does suggest a major shift to the left in the Party as a whole. Also, a close win by Murphy (or a loss) would totally embarrass the county chairs in NJ and suggest that they've lost a lot of power, which would be an incredibly good thing going forward for the state.

[Suburbia]

The way how the NJ GOP is right now, and with Guadagno as the likely nominee, is it possible that Phil Murphy could win Morris County, a GOP stronghold? It is very possible, Hillary Clinton won some Republican-leaning towns last year against Trump in the presidential election.

http://www.daily-times.com/story/news/2016/10/08/red-hot-murphy-plans-turn-morris-county-blue/91733946/