2017: NJ Gubernatorial/legislative elections

[smoltchanov]

The way how the NJ GOP is right now, and with Guadagno as the likely nominee, is it possible that Phil Murphy could win Morris County, a GOP stronghold? It is very possible, Hillary Clinton won some Republican-leaning towns last year against Trump in the presidential election.

http://www.daily-times.com/story/news/2016/10/08/red-hot-murphy-plans-turn-morris-county-blue/91733946/

Well, Guadagno, is, surely, no Trump, but given Christie approval numbers and fact, that she was his LG - possible.

[The Other Castro]

NYT on Piscopo's potential run for Governor:

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https://www.nytimes.com/2017/02/20/nyregion/joe-piscopo-new-jersey-governor.html?_r=1&referer=https://www.google.com/

[MAINEiac4434]

NYT on Piscopo's potential run for Governor:

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https://www.nytimes.com/2017/02/20/nyregion/joe-piscopo-new-jersey-governor.html?_r=1&referer=https://www.google.com/

Yeah Joe. Run as an independent.

[Suburbia]

Joe Piscopo is the only Republican who can defeat Guadango, it would send shivers down the NJ GOP like in 2001 when conservative Jersey City mayor Bret Schundler defeated moderate hero Bob Franks in the GOP primary.

I could see Christie shaming and humiliating his No. 2 and endorsing Piscopo. Imagine how that would look.

http://www.nydailynews.com/archives/news/jersey-city-mayor-wins-gop-gov-nod-article-1.909980

http://www.nydailynews.com/archives/news/n-gop-gov-pick-today-article-1.899026

[Suburbia]

NYT on Piscopo's potential run for Governor:

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https://www.nytimes.com/2017/02/20/nyregion/joe-piscopo-new-jersey-governor.html?_r=1&referer=https://www.google.com/

Yeah Joe. Run as an independent.

If Piscopo runs, who does he spoil the most? Guadagno/Ciattarelli or Murphy/Wisnieswski?

[KingSweden]

NYT on Piscopo's potential run for Governor:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/02/20/nyregion/joe-piscopo-new-jersey-governor.html?_r=1&referer=https://www.google.com/

Yeah Joe. Run as an independent.

If Piscopo runs, who does he spoil the most? Guadagno/Ciattarelli or Murphy/Wisnieswski?

Probably Guadagno

[MAINEiac4434]

NYT on Piscopo's potential run for Governor:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/02/20/nyregion/joe-piscopo-new-jersey-governor.html?_r=1&referer=https://www.google.com/

Yeah Joe. Run as an independent.

If Piscopo runs, who does he spoil the most? Guadagno/Ciattarelli or Murphy/Wisnieswski?

The diehard Trump supporter definitely pulls down the GOP candidate.

[Suburbia]

Phil Murphy won the endorsement of the Middlesex County Democratic Party, which is a blow to his rival, Middlesex's own John Wisniewski. Wisniewski's spokespeople are disappointed. Murphy is the odds-on favorite to become the next New Jersey governor.

http://www.nj.com/politics/index.ssf/2017/02/murphy_wins_another_county_while_rivals_boycott.html#incart_river_index

[Dr. MB]

Wisniewski.

Even working for Goldman Sachs, much less serving as an executive of the company, should be an automatic disqualifier for running for office.

[Suburbia]

Wisniewski.

Even working for Goldman Sachs, much less serving as an executive of the company, should be an automatic disqualifier for running for office.

Wisniewski is a good candidate, but Murphy has the establishment behind him and they know to turn voters out. However, I fear that June's primaries may be low turnout if people see the N.J. Democratic Party having a "Phil Murphy primary coronation".

Wisniewski should run for Senate if Menendez or Booker resigns, or for Frank Pallone's House seat in the future.

[LabourJersey]

Piscopo put an Op-Ed in the Star Ledger today. He seems to refute the claim that he's a Trumpian candidate, and mentions he though that Sanders should have been the Democratic nominee last year.

http://www.nj.com/opinion/index.ssf/2017/03/piscopo_if_i_run_for_governor_ill_bring_all_sides.html#incart_river_index

He clearly seems to want to run, though this implies to me he wants to run as an Independent though he's using a lot of generic NJ republican rhetoric. As a Democrat I would be thrilled if he ran, since it would only further ensure that a Democrat would win.

[Maxwell]

ew Piscopo - unfunny comedian who almost certainly sounds like a hack.

[Suburbia]

Piscopo could do a lot of damage to the NJ GOP if he runs as an Independent. Ciattarelli is the only GOP candidate who can beat Phil Murphy or John Wisniewski. Guadagno is too close to Christie, but the GOP establishment is probably behind her.

However, if Piscopo runs as a Republican, he could win the primary. I don't see the Lt. Gov. exciting NJ GOPers, because she didn't support Trump in the 2016 election.

However, if Guadagno loses the GOP primary in June, it would be a big upset, she could run for Congress in 2018, or Senate in 2018, or some other seat, or run for governor again in 2021.

[houseonaboat]

Something interesting is that Wisniewski still hasn't qualified for public financing. A candidate needs to raise (and pledge to spend) $430,000 in the primary to get 2-for-1 matching in the state, and Wisniewski's last fundraising report (in late January) had him only at $230,000. A Politico article yesterday indicated that he still wasn't there, which is extraordinary in itself as Jim Johnson (who has zero chance of winning) has already crossed that mark, if only barely so.

Murphy, even without his $10 million loan, has raised $1.3 million just for the primary, and has $11.3 million and change in his primary campaign war chest.

[MAINEiac4434]

Something interesting is that Wisniewski still hasn't qualified for public financing. A candidate needs to raise (and pledge to spend) $430,000 in the primary to get 2-for-1 matching in the state, and Wisniewski's last fundraising report (in late January) had him only at $230,000. A Politico article yesterday indicated that he still wasn't there, which is extraordinary in itself as Jim Johnson (who has zero chance of winning) has already crossed that mark, if only barely so.

Murphy, even without his $10 million loan, has raised $1.3 million just for the primary, and has $11.3 million and change in his primary campaign war chest.

The initial excitement has dissipated. He's a dead candidate walking right now.

[LabourJersey]

Something interesting is that Wisniewski still hasn't qualified for public financing. A candidate needs to raise (and pledge to spend) $430,000 in the primary to get 2-for-1 matching in the state, and Wisniewski's last fundraising report (in late January) had him only at $230,000. A Politico article yesterday indicated that he still wasn't there, which is extraordinary in itself as Jim Johnson (who has zero chance of winning) has already crossed that mark, if only barely so.

Murphy, even without his $10 million loan, has raised $1.3 million just for the primary, and has $11.3 million and change in his primary campaign war chest.

The initial excitement has dissipated. He's a dead candidate walking right now.

Personally I still think Wiz could get into a stronger position in the next two months than you might think. Murphy has already started attacking Wiz in rather shady ways on guns, environmental issues etc. I think it's very possible that national progressive groups start to mobilize in the last few weeks to "BEAT GOLDMAN SACHS AND THE ESTABLISHMENT!!!!" and turn the primary (briefly) into a national thing.

Of course I could be wrong and Murphy will just sail through with 70% +, but I am still skeptical a large majority of Democratic primary voters are going to turn out for a Goldman Sachs guy in 2017.

[KingSweden]

Something interesting is that Wisniewski still hasn't qualified for public financing. A candidate needs to raise (and pledge to spend) $430,000 in the primary to get 2-for-1 matching in the state, and Wisniewski's last fundraising report (in late January) had him only at $230,000. A Politico article yesterday indicated that he still wasn't there, which is extraordinary in itself as Jim Johnson (who has zero chance of winning) has already crossed that mark, if only barely so.

Murphy, even without his $10 million loan, has raised $1.3 million just for the primary, and has $11.3 million and change in his primary campaign war chest.

The initial excitement has dissipated. He's a dead candidate walking right now.

Personally I still think Wiz could get into a stronger position in the next two months than you might think. Murphy has already started attacking Wiz in rather shady ways on guns, environmental issues etc. I think it's very possible that national progressive groups start to mobilize in the last few weeks to "BEAT GOLDMAN SACHS AND THE ESTABLISHMENT!!!!" and turn the primary (briefly) into a national thing.

Of course I could be wrong and Murphy will just sail through with 70% +, but I am still skeptical a large majority of Democratic primary voters are going to turn out for a Goldman Sachs guy in 2017.

Hasn't Murphy taken some pretty progressive stances that defang a lot of the left-wing complaints about him, though?

[MAINEiac4434]

Something interesting is that Wisniewski still hasn't qualified for public financing. A candidate needs to raise (and pledge to spend) $430,000 in the primary to get 2-for-1 matching in the state, and Wisniewski's last fundraising report (in late January) had him only at $230,000. A Politico article yesterday indicated that he still wasn't there, which is extraordinary in itself as Jim Johnson (who has zero chance of winning) has already crossed that mark, if only barely so.

Murphy, even without his $10 million loan, has raised $1.3 million just for the primary, and has $11.3 million and change in his primary campaign war chest.

The initial excitement has dissipated. He's a dead candidate walking right now.

Personally I still think Wiz could get into a stronger position in the next two months than you might think. Murphy has already started attacking Wiz in rather shady ways on guns, environmental issues etc. I think it's very possible that national progressive groups start to mobilize in the last few weeks to "BEAT GOLDMAN SACHS AND THE ESTABLISHMENT!!!!" and turn the primary (briefly) into a national thing.

Of course I could be wrong and Murphy will just sail through with 70% +, but I am still skeptical a large majority of Democratic primary voters are going to turn out for a Goldman Sachs guy in 2017.

Hasn't Murphy taken some pretty progressive stances that defang a lot of the left-wing complaints about him, though?

I mean, there are anecdotal reports that Bernie supporters are splitting 50-50 between Wiz and Murphy. Wisniewski has Bernie's ex-campaign manager's endorsement, but Murphy has Bernie's son's endorsement. I dunno, I feel like the Bernie people should be rallying around wisniewski but maybe they're more concerned about getting a Dem trifecta in NJ or they're just not passionate about non-Bernie politicians.

[houseonaboat]

Something interesting is that Wisniewski still hasn't qualified for public financing. A candidate needs to raise (and pledge to spend) $430,000 in the primary to get 2-for-1 matching in the state, and Wisniewski's last fundraising report (in late January) had him only at $230,000. A Politico article yesterday indicated that he still wasn't there, which is extraordinary in itself as Jim Johnson (who has zero chance of winning) has already crossed that mark, if only barely so.

Murphy, even without his $10 million loan, has raised $1.3 million just for the primary, and has $11.3 million and change in his primary campaign war chest.

The initial excitement has dissipated. He's a dead candidate walking right now.

Personally I still think Wiz could get into a stronger position in the next two months than you might think. Murphy has already started attacking Wiz in rather shady ways on guns, environmental issues etc. I think it's very possible that national progressive groups start to mobilize in the last few weeks to "BEAT GOLDMAN SACHS AND THE ESTABLISHMENT!!!!" and turn the primary (briefly) into a national thing.

Of course I could be wrong and Murphy will just sail through with 70% +, but I am still skeptical a large majority of Democratic primary voters are going to turn out for a Goldman Sachs guy in 2017.

Hasn't Murphy taken some pretty progressive stances that defang a lot of the left-wing complaints about him, though?

I mean, there are anecdotal reports that Bernie supporters are splitting 50-50 between Wiz and Murphy. Wisniewski has Bernie's ex-campaign manager's endorsement, but Murphy has Bernie's son's endorsement. I dunno, I feel like the Bernie people should be rallying around wisniewski but maybe they're more concerned about getting a Dem trifecta in NJ or they're just not passionate about non-Bernie politicians.

More significant than Bernie's son's endorsement is the fact that the CWA endorsed Phil, and the CWA was the largest union in the country to endorse Bernie. They've actually pushed back pretty hard against some NJ Dems as well (including Wisniewski, funnily enough), so to me, that's the bigger sign that Bernie supporters are pretty evenly split between Murphy and Wisniewski.

[Suburbia]

This new story from the Observer shows that millennial New Jerseyans may be trending towards Phil Murphy. The hardcore millennial Bernie Sanders supporters are disappointed in Wisniewski that Sanders didn't win in New Jersey. We'll see what happens.

http://observer.com/2017/03/nj-young-voters-john-wisniewski-phil-murphy/

[Suburbia]

This new story from the Observer shows that millennial New Jerseyans may be trending towards Phil Murphy. The hardcore millennial Bernie Sanders supporters are disappointed in Wisniewski that Sanders didn't win in New Jersey. We'll see what happens.

http://observer.com/2017/03/nj-young-voters-john-wisniewski-phil-murphy/

Because Phil will give them that sweet legal ganja

True. As a New Jerseyan, I support the idea, but I won't be surprised if some folks aren't efficient in their work.

[MAINEiac4434]

This new story from the Observer shows that millennial New Jerseyans may be trending towards Phil Murphy. The hardcore millennial Bernie Sanders supporters are disappointed in Wisniewski that Sanders didn't win in New Jersey. We'll see what happens.

http://observer.com/2017/03/nj-young-voters-john-wisniewski-phil-murphy/

It's not Wiz's fault Bernie lost NJ lmao. By the time the New Jersey primary came around, Bernie was pretty much eliminated anyway.

[LabourJersey]

This new story from the Observer shows that millennial New Jerseyans may be trending towards Phil Murphy. The hardcore millennial Bernie Sanders supporters are disappointed in Wisniewski that Sanders didn't win in New Jersey. We'll see what happens.

http://observer.com/2017/03/nj-young-voters-john-wisniewski-phil-murphy/

It's not Wiz's fault Bernie lost NJ lmao. By the time the New Jersey primary came around, Bernie was pretty much eliminated anyway.

Yeah that is incredibly stupid thinking--Bernie was never favored to win, and the whole Sanders campaign was obsessively focused on California anyway. Sanders did about as well as I expected from him. You can't blame Wiz for failing to do the almost-impossible

[MAINEiac4434]

This new story from the Observer shows that millennial New Jerseyans may be trending towards Phil Murphy. The hardcore millennial Bernie Sanders supporters are disappointed in Wisniewski that Sanders didn't win in New Jersey. We'll see what happens.

http://observer.com/2017/03/nj-young-voters-john-wisniewski-phil-murphy/

It's not Wiz's fault Bernie lost NJ lmao. By the time the New Jersey primary came around, Bernie was pretty much eliminated anyway.

Yeah that is incredibly stupid thinking--Bernie was never favored to win, and the whole Sanders campaign was obsessively focused on California anyway. Sanders did about as well as I expected from him. You can't blame Wiz for failing to do the almost-impossible

One thing I've found to be true about committed Bernie supporters - they always think everything is someone else's fault. If he lost a state it was rigged, or his team didn't work hard enough. It was never as simple as "the people preferred Hillary."

[Virginiá]

One thing I've found to be true about committed Bernie supporters - they always think everything is someone else's fault. If he lost a state it was rigged, or his team didn't work hard enough. It was never as simple as "the people preferred Hillary."

That's part of the problem with such highly charged partisan affairs, but particularly with one whose opposition is a woman widely viewed (fairly or not) as corrupt and untrustworthy. Suddenly all those arguments that she "rigged" it become credible. And it was made so much worse by the DNC-related stuff. It gave people the perfect excuse to use whenever Bernie lost, and of course it'd be thrown around generously.