2017: NJ Gubernatorial/legislative elections

[Senator-elect Spark]

This is a D state regardless.

[houseonaboat]

Murphy won the Working Families Alliance endorsement (like New York's WFP, but not a formal political party).

[MAINEiac4434]

Murphy won the Working Families Alliance endorsement (like New York's WFP, but not a formal political party).

Congratulations Governor Murphy.

[KingSweden]

Murphy won the Working Families Alliance endorsement (like New York's WFP, but not a formal political party).

Congratulations Governor Murphy.

[Kingofearth]

Murphy won the Working Families Alliance endorsement (like New York's WFP, but not a formal political party).

Any group that would endorse a Goldman Sacks guy to be the Democratic nominee is clearly a group that shouldn't be taken seriously.

[Suburbia]

Joe Piscopo will not run for governor as a Republican, he will most likely run as an Independent.

http://www.nj.com/politics/index.ssf/2017/03/its_official_piscopo_wont_run_as_a_republican_as_a.html#incart_river_home

[MAINEiac4434]

Joe Piscopo will not run for governor as a Republican, he will most likely run as an Independent.

http://www.nj.com/politics/index.ssf/2017/03/its_official_piscopo_wont_run_as_a_republican_as_a.html#incart_river_home

Congratulations Governor Murphy.

[Suburbia]

Do you see any chance Murphy picks Wisniewski as his lieutenant governor running mate after the June 6 primary? Or does he choose someone from South Jersey? (There is a North-South Jersey political divide in N.J.)

[houseonaboat]

Do you see any chance Murphy picks Wisniewski as his lieutenant governor running mate after the June 6 primary? Or does he choose someone from South Jersey? (There is a North-South Jersey political divide in N.J.)

He'll likely pick Shavonda Sumter.

Addendum, by the way: Jim Johnson is appearing on Joy Reid's show tomorrow. He's sharing the spotlight with Perriello and Gillum but I think he's pushing to make this primary as national as Perriello's is.

[Suburbia]

Do you see any chance Murphy picks Wisniewski as his lieutenant governor running mate after the June 6 primary? Or does he choose someone from South Jersey? (There is a North-South Jersey political divide in N.J.)

He'll likely pick Shavonda Sumter.

Addendum, by the way: Jim Johnson is appearing on Joy Reid's show tomorrow. He's sharing the spotlight with Perriello and Gillum (and Reid is a hack, Johnson's only appearing on the show because his wife and Joy are good friends) but I think he's pushing to make this primary as national as Perriello's is.

I like Assemblywoman Sumter and Jim Johnson. If Wisniewski doesn't get his campaign in order, it is possible Johnson can be 2nd place to Murphy in June and Wisniewski and Lesniak far behind.

Johnson would be a good future Senate candidate down the road.

[KingSweden]

Joe Piscopo will not run for governor as a Republican, he will most likely run as an Independent.

http://www.nj.com/politics/index.ssf/2017/03/its_official_piscopo_wont_run_as_a_republican_as_a.html#incart_river_home

Congratulations Governor Murphy.

[Maxwell]

If Piscopo runs third party he'll get less than 5% of the vote. unsurprisingly, a stupid move for him. Running in the GOP primary would've given him a chance against Christie's No.2.

[LabourJersey]

If Piscopo runs third party he'll get less than 5% of the vote. unsurprisingly, a stupid move for him. Running in the GOP primary would've given him a chance against Christie's No.2.

I do find this odd, since he would have been the only pro-Trump candidate for Governor in a republican primary electorate thats very pro-Trump. I think Piscopo is convinced that Guadagno will win the nom, and he thought by running as an Indie, he can run against both the Christie admin. and the Democrats in one go.

I have no clue how well he would do, but if he runs a very Trumpian campaign, I can see him getting 10-12% of the vote (but nothing higher than that).

[houseonaboat]

NJ Posters: How would you rate the LD-2 races with the shakeup from Mazzeo's gaffe? Is Chris Brown favored to flip the seat for R's (that'd be a rare bright spot for them in what look to be an otherwise terrible year for them, with them expected to lose Diane Allen's seat, the Governorship/LG, and a few Assembly seats)? I know some people on RRH and DKE think that it's a likely R pickup now, but I'm not so sure. The district has a 10-point D registration advantage, went overwhelmingly for Obama and Clinton, Murphy is likely to romp there, and Dem turnout will probably be higher than normal given the anti-Trump angst. Also, how would you rate Jennifer Beck's race since that's the only other competitive-looking SD?

Also, CD-2 question: When LoBiondo eventually retires/kicks the can, who are the favorites to run to replace him? Jeff Van Drew is getting pretty old, but Bob Andrczejczak is extremely young and has a great bio with strong crossover appeal in his LD. Chris Brown or Don Guardian would seem like the most logical R frontrunners, provided they win this year, which is a big if. How would you rate an open seat race between Andrczejczak vs. Brown?

I think LD-2 is lean R. Colin Bell is a strong candidate and Dems will pour money into the race, but Brown was already swamping Mazzeo in terms of fundraising, and Bell is starting from behind. If Murphy romps there (which he will, he's fairly popular in South Jersey), Bell has a good shot but I would say Lean R.

As for Beck, Monmouth is still a heavily Republican county, she's a formidable senator who can fundraise well, and as talented as Vin Gopal is (and he is, Monmouth Dems have had a lot of wins lately), he has an uphill battle against a popular incumbent in a Republican district. Beck also opposed the gas tax increase. My only hesitation is that Murphy is from Monmouth (though obviously holds no office there), which could translate it into a few more votes, but I doubt it and I'd rate it Lean R.

As for CD-2, I don't follow South Jersey politics outside of ongoings in Norcross world that I hear about, but JVD's was recruited in 2016 and declined. My instinct is that Bob Andrzejczak would be a competitive candidate, but Chris Brown is apparently a really good fundraiser (or as good as you can be as a state assemblyman, at least) and Don Guardian is incredibly popular in Atlantic County. I can't imagine Andrzejczak overcoming either of those challengers unless he's better at raising money than I thought.

[Suburbia]

If Piscopo runs third party he'll get less than 5% of the vote. unsurprisingly, a stupid move for him. Running in the GOP primary would've given him a chance against Christie's No.2.

I do find this odd, since he would have been the only pro-Trump candidate for Governor in a republican primary electorate thats very pro-Trump. I think Piscopo is convinced that Guadagno will win the nom, and he thought by running as an Indie, he can run against both the Christie admin. and the Democrats in one go.

I have no clue how well he would do, but if he runs a very Trumpian campaign, I can see him getting 10-12% of the vote (but nothing higher than that).

Piscopo will get 5%-10% of the vote. That could siphon votes from Guadagno or Ciattarelli. Guadagno or Ciattarelli would do well in running against Bob Menendez in 2018. Ciattarelli could beat Menendez next year for Senate.

[Dr. MB]

If I lived in NJ and Murphy was the nominee, I'd vote for Piscopo. Phil Murphy brands himself as a "progressive" while being part of the establishment.

[Suburbia]

Phil Murphy will have a lot of work ahead of him, most likely. The state is deep in debt and Christie has checked out. Christie made a lot of promises in his 2010 inauguration, but it never came to fruition.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7ThZ6sQz-fE

[Chief Justice Keef]

The Democratic primary race seems to be heating up. Murphy's apparently paid county chairs up to hundreds of thousands of dollars for endorsements.

http://www.nj.com/politics/index.ssf/2017/03/how_much_phil_murphy_donated_to_nj_democrats_in_recent_years.html

[Gass3268]

The Democratic primary race seems to be heating up. Murphy's apparently paid county chairs up to hundreds of thousands of dollars for endorsements.

http://www.nj.com/politics/index.ssf/2017/03/how_much_phil_murphy_donated_to_nj_democrats_in_recent_years.html

All this article says is that he donated a lot of money to the state party and country parties. Nothing about paying for endorsements.

[KingSweden]

If I lived in NJ and Murphy was the nominee, I'd vote for Piscopo. Phil Murphy brands himself as a "progressive" while being part of the establishment.

Proof neither of these words has any tangible meaning

[houseonaboat]

The Democratic primary race seems to be heating up. Murphy's apparently paid county chairs up to hundreds of thousands of dollars for endorsements.

http://www.nj.com/politics/index.ssf/2017/03/how_much_phil_murphy_donated_to_nj_democrats_in_recent_years.html

This has been known since he jumped into the race -- I doubt that article changes the race meaningfully. The Star Ledger claims to have a major story on Murphy during his time at Goldman though to be published within the coming weeks.

EDIT: misread your comment, there's nothing in there about "buying" endorsements. I was at the Morris County Democratic Convention yesterday, the committee is like 70% geriatrics with too much time on their hands. The idea that he "bought" their votes is absurd.

[JerryArkansas]

The Democratic primary race seems to be heating up. Murphy's apparently paid county chairs up to hundreds of thousands of dollars for endorsements.

http://www.nj.com/politics/index.ssf/2017/03/how_much_phil_murphy_donated_to_nj_democrats_in_recent_years.html

It says nothing of that sort, so why are you trying to make stuff up on this race?

[houseonaboat]

Ciattarelli could well win win the GOP primary by the way.

I don't know that, it is just a guess, and Guadagno won some super-important county lines in Ocean, Monmouth, Bergen, Cumberland and Atlantic Counties, but Ciattarelli has momentum going into Middlesex, won Essex, Union, Somerset, Burlington and Mercer, and is widely regarded as a far superior candidate to Kim, Guadagno, who is closely tied to Christie and frankly not a very good politician. Ciattarelli is a really good speaker/campaigner, talks a lot about school funding (which is the #1 issue for a lot of New Jersey's suburbia), and is seen as the better candidate against Murphy.

[Suburbia]

Ciattarelli could well win win the GOP primary by the way.

I don't know that, it is just a guess, and Guadagno won some super-important county lines in Ocean, Monmouth, Bergen, Cumberland and Atlantic Counties, but Ciattarelli has momentum going into Middlesex, won Essex, Union, Somerset, Burlington and Mercer, and is widely regarded as a far superior candidate to Kim, Guadagno, who is closely tied to Christie and frankly not a very good politician. Ciattarelli is a really good speaker/campaigner, talks a lot about school funding (which is the #1 issue for a lot of New Jersey's suburbia), and is seen as the better candidate against Murphy.

Ciattarelli is a rising star. I've saw him speak on TV. He is a good speaker. He could give Phil Murphy a competitive race, but it would still be Likely D. Guadagno is somewhat boring, but would be a good 2018 or 2020 Senate candidate.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Ciattarelli could well win win the GOP primary by the way.

I don't know that, it is just a guess, and Guadagno won some super-important county lines in Ocean, Monmouth, Bergen, Cumberland and Atlantic Counties, but Ciattarelli has momentum going into Middlesex, won Essex, Union, Somerset, Burlington and Mercer, and is widely regarded as a far superior candidate to Kim, Guadagno, who is closely tied to Christie and frankly not a very good politician. Ciattarelli is a really good speaker/campaigner, talks a lot about school funding (which is the #1 issue for a lot of New Jersey's suburbia), and is seen as the better candidate against Murphy.

Ciattarelli is a rising star. I've saw him speak on TV. He is a good speaker. He could give Phil Murphy a competitive race, but it would still be Likely D. Guadagno is somewhat boring, but would be a good 2018 or 2020 Senate candidate.

I could see a Republican winning against a sufficiently damaged Menendez, but I really doubt Guadagno would be that Republican.