2017: NJ Gubernatorial/legislative elections

[LabourJersey]

Ciattarelli could well win win the GOP primary by the way.

I don't know that, it is just a guess, and Guadagno won some super-important county lines in Ocean, Monmouth, Bergen, Cumberland and Atlantic Counties, but Ciattarelli has momentum going into Middlesex, won Essex, Union, Somerset, Burlington and Mercer, and is widely regarded as a far superior candidate to Kim, Guadagno, who is closely tied to Christie and frankly not a very good politician. Ciattarelli is a really good speaker/campaigner, talks a lot about school funding (which is the #1 issue for a lot of New Jersey's suburbia), and is seen as the better candidate against Murphy.

Ciattarelli is a rising star. I've saw him speak on TV. He is a good speaker. He could give Phil Murphy a competitive race, but it would still be Likely D. Guadagno is somewhat boring, but would be a good 2018 or 2020 Senate candidate.

I could see a Republican winning against a sufficiently damaged Menendez, but I really doubt Guadagno would be that Republican.

Agreed-- Guadagno is not that talented a politician (she's decent compared to other NJ pols, but that is a low bar). I strongly doubt she could win against Menendez, no matter how hurt he would be

[Suburbia]

I'll make a bold prediction in April 2017: Democrats will win Morris County in the gubernatorial election for the first time in a long time. GOP turnout is low because Guadango does not inspire and N.J. Transit problems is under Gov. Christie's watch and some Morris County residents use N.J. Transit to get to work in N.Y.C.

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/04/05/nyregion/chris-christie-nj-transit-derailment.html?_r=0

[Suburbia]

Here is another bold prediction: Assemblyman John Wisniewski will either be 3rd place in the June 6 primary or drop out all together. He has not run a good campaign. I live in his legislative district, I have not seen so much support in his Middlesex County base. He was supposed to be the progressive alternative to a Democratic establishment Murphy, and Wisniewski is pretty popular in my district. He's won reelection since 1995. He has not put up a TV/Internet ad as of April, and time runs out in N.J. politics in the spring, because once it hits May, everyone focuses on heading to the Jersey Shore or the Morristown Green to kickoff springtime/summertime weather.

Jim Johnson is gaining in the election. He's well-educated, black (could do well in Essex and Union, Camden counties). Wisniewski is a bland white blue-collar progressive male from Middlesex County.

Wisniewski better get his campaign running strong or else Johnson will be in 2nd place in the primary.

http://www.nj.com/politics/index.ssf/2017/04/nj_gov_hopeful_jim_johnson_unveils_second_tv_ad.html

[Lourdes]

It's a shame Wisniewski's campaign hasn't gotten the attention that Murphy's has, but I'm not even that surprised at this point.

I'll probably wind up holding my nose and voting for Murphy in November.

[Suburbia]

It's a shame Wisniewski's campaign hasn't gotten the attention that Murphy's has, but I'm not even that surprised at this point.

I'll probably wind up holding my nose and voting for Murphy in November.

Wisniewski has not even produced TV ads yet--that is crucial in NJ especially since it is so densely populated, you have to reach all 21 counties.

[houseonaboat]

It's a shame Wisniewski's campaign hasn't gotten the attention that Murphy's has, but I'm not even that surprised at this point.

I'll probably wind up holding my nose and voting for Murphy in November.

It's not the media's (or the NJ political establishment's) fault that Wisniewski is running a god-awful campaign. He's being out-fundraised by Jim Johnson, has virtually no field presence, and his campaign manager makes more headlines than the actual candidate.

[MAINEiac4434]

It's a shame Wisniewski's campaign hasn't gotten the attention that Murphy's has, but I'm not even that surprised at this point.

I'll probably wind up holding my nose and voting for Murphy in November.

It's not the media's (or the NJ political establishment's) fault that Wisniewski is running a god-awful campaign. He's being out-fundraised by Jim Johnson, has virtually no field presence, and his campaign manager makes more headlines than the actual candidate.

Wisniewski hoped his endorsements from Bernie people would start the cash flow and it clearly didn't work, especially with polls indicating half of NJ's Bernie supporters are supporting Murphy anyway.

[Suburbia]

Assemblyman Wisniewski has parted ways with his campaign manager, Robert Becker. The struggling Wisniewski gubernatorial campaign is not doing well. Becker is a Sandersnista. He is replaced by Kevin Keefe, another Sandersnista.

Wisniewski's campaign is not doing well, that is for sure.

http://www.nj.com/politics/index.ssf/2017/04/nj_governor_hopeful_wisniewski_parts_ways_with_cam.html

[Suburbia]

An interesting article about New Jersey Democratic gubernatorial candidate Jim Johnson. He could be second place in the June 6 primary. Wisniewski and Lesniak have really underperformed as candidates, but there has not even been a Democratic gubernatorial debate yet. Wisniewski could jump back in attention if he has debate zingers against Murphy and Johnson--but he needs to run TV ads (a must in NJ politics).

Johnson is a Montclair resident--he could do well with the white liberals in that area around Montclair, Bloomfield, Little Falls, Glen Ridge. He could do well in Newark and other majority-black areas, but with Booker and Menendez's support of Murphy, he may not.

http://observer.com/2017/04/can-jim-johnson-beat-njs-democratic-machine/

[Duke of York]

An interesting article about New Jersey Democratic gubernatorial candidate Jim Johnson. He could be second place in the June 6 primary. Wisniewski and Lesniak have really underperformed as candidates, but there has not even been a Democratic gubernatorial debate yet. Wisniewski could jump back in attention if he has debate zingers against Murphy and Johnson--but he needs to run TV ads (a must in NJ politics).

Johnson is a Montclair resident--he could do well with the white liberals in that area around Montclair, Bloomfield, Little Falls, Glen Ridge. He could do well in Newark and other majority-black areas, but with Booker and Menendez's support of Murphy, he may not.

http://observer.com/2017/04/can-jim-johnson-beat-njs-democratic-machine/

If Jim Johnson does come in second how likely is it Murphy picks him as Lt. Governor?

[Suburbia]

An interesting article about New Jersey Democratic gubernatorial candidate Jim Johnson. He could be second place in the June 6 primary. Wisniewski and Lesniak have really underperformed as candidates, but there has not even been a Democratic gubernatorial debate yet. Wisniewski could jump back in attention if he has debate zingers against Murphy and Johnson--but he needs to run TV ads (a must in NJ politics).

Johnson is a Montclair resident--he could do well with the white liberals in that area around Montclair, Bloomfield, Little Falls, Glen Ridge. He could do well in Newark and other majority-black areas, but with Booker and Menendez's support of Murphy, he may not.

http://observer.com/2017/04/can-jim-johnson-beat-njs-democratic-machine/

If Jim Johnson does come in second how likely is it Murphy picks him as Lt. Governor?

Very likely, but Murphy may like loyalty for a Lt. Governor. Johnson would get him minority voters.

[Suburbia]

Endorsement Alert: Former New York City mayor David Dinkins endorses former Treasury Undersecretary Jim Johnson (D) for governor. It could help Johnson with black voters who left NY and are still upset that the first black mayor of one of America's largest cities lost to Rudy Giuliani.

http://observer.com/2017/04/nj-governors-race-former-nyc-mayor-backs-johnson/

[houseonaboat]

An interesting article about New Jersey Democratic gubernatorial candidate Jim Johnson. He could be second place in the June 6 primary. Wisniewski and Lesniak have really underperformed as candidates, but there has not even been a Democratic gubernatorial debate yet. Wisniewski could jump back in attention if he has debate zingers against Murphy and Johnson--but he needs to run TV ads (a must in NJ politics).

Johnson is a Montclair resident--he could do well with the white liberals in that area around Montclair, Bloomfield, Little Falls, Glen Ridge. He could do well in Newark and other majority-black areas, but with Booker and Menendez's support of Murphy, he may not.

http://observer.com/2017/04/can-jim-johnson-beat-njs-democratic-machine/

If Jim Johnson does come in second how likely is it Murphy picks him as Lt. Governor?

zero odds. Outside of the fact that Johnson has criticized Murphy's signature proposal (a public bank) and accused him of violating NJ election law, Murphy strategically and politically needs someone with political experience on the ticket. And, practically speaking, he owes North Jersey (and specifically state Democratic chairman John Currie) a favor for handing him the nomination nine months before the primary, so he'll likely pick Currie ally Shavonda Sumter.

[KingSweden]

An interesting article about New Jersey Democratic gubernatorial candidate Jim Johnson. He could be second place in the June 6 primary. Wisniewski and Lesniak have really underperformed as candidates, but there has not even been a Democratic gubernatorial debate yet. Wisniewski could jump back in attention if he has debate zingers against Murphy and Johnson--but he needs to run TV ads (a must in NJ politics).

Johnson is a Montclair resident--he could do well with the white liberals in that area around Montclair, Bloomfield, Little Falls, Glen Ridge. He could do well in Newark and other majority-black areas, but with Booker and Menendez's support of Murphy, he may not.

http://observer.com/2017/04/can-jim-johnson-beat-njs-democratic-machine/

If Jim Johnson does come in second how likely is it Murphy picks him as Lt. Governor?

zero odds. Outside of the fact that Johnson has criticized Murphy's signature proposal (a public bank) and accused him of violating NJ election law, Murphy strategically and politically needs someone with political experience on the ticket. And, practically speaking, he owes North Jersey (and specifically state Democratic chairman John Currie) a favor for handing him the nomination nine months before the primary, so he'll likely pick Currie ally Shavonda Sumter.

I'm assuming she's black, so he'd have a minority on the ticket either way that way

[Suburbia]

Does Guadagno or Ciattarelli pick a minority Republican, or do they go with a another white male?

[LabourJersey]

Endorsement Alert: Former New York City mayor David Dinkins endorses former Treasury Undersecretary Jim Johnson (D) for governor. It could help Johnson with black voters who left NY and are still upset that the first black mayor of one of America's largest cities lost to Rudy Giuliani.

http://observer.com/2017/04/nj-governors-race-former-nyc-mayor-backs-johnson/

Bronz, you must accept at one point or another that very, VERY few voters care about NYC politics of the 1990s, even those who lived there during that period. People under 40 barely know who Dinkins is. He is the product of another time, another New York. 

Also I guess this would help Johnson, but I don't really see his constituency outside of middle/upper class African Americans. That's a good-sized group in an NJ democratic party, but not enough to win or even reach 15% of the vote.

[The Other Castro]

Joe Piscopo will make an announcement tomorrow morning about the NJ Governor race.

[The Other Castro]

Joe Piscopo will make an announcement tomorrow morning about the NJ Governor race.

Just announced: He is NOT running, will endorse Guadagno instead.

[Suburbia]

Lt. Gov. Guadagno still wins the GOP gubernatorial primary, but she loses to Murphy or Johnson unless the N.J. Democratic Party/DNC screw up big time in picking up this blue state gubernatorial seat.

[The Other Castro]

John Wisniewski has an ad out hitting Phil Murphy for his Wall Street ties.

http://www.nj.com/politics/index.ssf/2017/05/watch_nj_gov_candidate_wisniewski_jabs_murphy_in_first_tv_ad.html

[houseonaboat]

John Wisniewski has an ad out hitting Phil Murphy for his Wall Street ties.

http://www.nj.com/politics/index.ssf/2017/05/watch_nj_gov_candidate_wisniewski_jabs_murphy_in_first_tv_ad.html

Doesn't look he's dropping out anytime soon, in which case, even if all the assumptions about NJ politics and the strength of county lines are wrong, Murphy is still a heavy favorite to win because of vote-splitting with Wisniewski and Johnson (Bernie supporters will stay with Wiz, Johnson will pick up a few Bernie voters and Hillary voters uneasy about Murphy, and Lesniak and Brennan will pick up a decent number of votes in their own right).

[Lord Admirale]

It really doesn't matter who wins either primary, the Democrat will win. I think Christie has hit single-digit approval ratings.

[Shadows]

Is this even believable given Murphy is getting a lot of Bernie votes (Bernie's son endorsed him while Weaver endorsed Wisniewski) !

[MAINEiac4434]

Wiz has gone from polling consistently below 10% to 35%?

[LabourJersey]

Wiz has gone from polling consistently below 10% to 35%?

I'm 99% that is the results of an NJTV online poll after the 2nd Democratic debate that was last Thursday, so take it with a grain of salt.

That being said, Murphy didn't handle himself very well. He was getting beat up by all three of the other candidates, and never really had any answer to his past with Goldman Sachs. For instance, Wiz attacked Murphy for giving a speech in 2013 praising fracking, and all Murphy came up with was "well I wasn't running for Governor in 2013."

Murphy is sort of likable but he's trying to get the nomination solely on name recognition, county lines and BS like "Well I left Goldman in 2003." I don't see this as a guaranteed winning strategy.