2017: NJ Gubernatorial/legislative elections

[Suburbia]

However, I wonder who Guadagno or Ciattarelli will choose as their lieutenant governor running mates?

[rpryor03]

Don Guardian/Kate Whitman would be a good ticket for 2021.

Dude, like, I get that you've got a thing for Christine Todd Whitman, but her daughter's woefully unqualified. She's never held elected office before.

It's hard to be "woefully unqualified" for Lieutenant Governor, which is a largely symbolic position.

It would be presumed that she would get some appointed position such as Guadagno being SecState.

Kate Whitman, Gov. Whitman's daughter is qualified. She ran for a Congressional seat (NJ-7) in 2008. If Lance's approval ratings sink next year, I can see the NJ GOP asking Lance to step aside for Whitman.

Why would he step aside for her? She's not qualified for the House! Sure, let's springboard her into the State House or Senate, but not Federal office.

[houseonaboat]

My guess, by the way, is that Johnson is gonna announce a primary challenge to Menendez after all this is over. This primary challenge will get a lot more media coverage than the gubernatorial primary, in part because Menendez is such a tarred candidate but also because Johnson is the perfect foil against him, as his large platform plank was ethics reform and Johnson has proven himself a capable fundraiser (being black doesn't hurt as well).

[LabourJersey]

My guess, by the way, is that Johnson is gonna announce a primary challenge to Menendez after all this is over. This primary challenge will get a lot more media coverage than the gubernatorial primary, in part because Menendez is such a tarred candidate but also because Johnson is the perfect foil against him, as his large platform plank was ethics reform and Johnson has proven himself a capable fundraiser (being black doesn't hurt as well).

I suppose that's possible-- the ethics angle would be a perfect contrast. My hope is that Rush Holt comes out of retirement to primary Menendez, or Pallone, but I would certainly support Johnson if it came down to him or Bobby.

[Pollster]

My guess, by the way, is that Johnson is gonna announce a primary challenge to Menendez after all this is over. This primary challenge will get a lot more media coverage than the gubernatorial primary, in part because Menendez is such a tarred candidate but also because Johnson is the perfect foil against him, as his large platform plank was ethics reform and Johnson has proven himself a capable fundraiser (being black doesn't hurt as well).

I suppose that's possible-- the ethics angle would be a perfect contrast. My hope is that Rush Holt comes out of retirement to primary Menendez, or Pallone, but I would certainly support Johnson if it came down to him or Bobby.

Holt would be the perfect candidate for the Dems to nominate in a Trump midterm.

[LabourJersey]

My guess, by the way, is that Johnson is gonna announce a primary challenge to Menendez after all this is over. This primary challenge will get a lot more media coverage than the gubernatorial primary, in part because Menendez is such a tarred candidate but also because Johnson is the perfect foil against him, as his large platform plank was ethics reform and Johnson has proven himself a capable fundraiser (being black doesn't hurt as well).

I suppose that's possible-- the ethics angle would be a perfect contrast. My hope is that Rush Holt comes out of retirement to primary Menendez, or Pallone, but I would certainly support Johnson if it came down to him or Bobby.

Holt would be the perfect candidate for the Dems to nominate in a Trump midterm.

Exactly! He would be the antidote to Trump -- a positive, intelligent public servant who knows how to get things done. I almost wanted him to win in 2013, and he would be probably favored against Menendez in the primary

[Figueira]

Not that this matters anymore but Al Gore endorsed Murphy today, one day after it was announced that Biden would campaign with him on Memorial Day. Wonder if an HRC endorsement or even a BO endorsement is possible before the primary.

If HRC endorses him, then that will be his kiss of death with New Jersey Progressives. Wiz could easily exploit that.

How in the world would Murphy be able to survive in a state whose primary electorate only gave Hillary 62% of the vote?

Not to mention, anyone who bases their vote on superficial stuff like that is not backing a Goldman Sachs guy anyway (note that I think the Goldman Sachs thing is a decent reason to be skeptical of him, unlike this hypothetical Clinton endorsement).

[Pollster]

Stockton has Murphy and Guadagno leading the primaries, with Johnson and Ciatarelli hitting double digits with <2 weeks to go.

https://stockton.edu/hughes-center/polling/documents/2017-0525-stockton-gubernatorial-polls.pdf

[houseonaboat]

Gotta say, Johnson is making a hard push the last few weeks. He's been promoting himself on social media a lot (basically went from 6000 to 7400 Facebook likes this week alone), released a pretty brutal attack ad on Murphy (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DICU-Vj4qUE, don't know how large the ad buy is though), got himself on The Young Turks, and is getting slightly more media traction here and there.

Will it cover a 24 point deficit? No, but he could pick up undecided voters, which is an interesting strategy.

[Pollster]

I imagine the final Dem spread will be something along the lines of
Murphy 58
Johnson 20
Wiz 12
Lesniak 8
Others 2

GOP
Guadagno 53
Ciattarelli 40
Others 7

[LabourJersey]

I imagine the final Dem spread will be something along the lines of
Murphy 58
Johnson 20
Wiz 12
Lesniak 8
Others 2

GOP
Guadagno 53
Ciattarelli 40
Others 7

Lesniak won't get 8%, but I think Johnson and Wiz will both do better than people think. I wouldn't be surprised if Murphy wins with less than 50% of the vote, which would really embarrassing for the county bosses (which is a good thing)

[houseonaboat]

I imagine the final Dem spread will be something along the lines of
Murphy 58
Johnson 20
Wiz 12
Lesniak 8
Others 2

GOP
Guadagno 53
Ciattarelli 40
Others 7

Lesniak won't get 8%, but I think Johnson and Wiz will both do better than people think. I wouldn't be surprised if Murphy wins with less than 50% of the vote, which would really embarrassing for the county bosses (which is a good thing)

Agreed, I think Murphy will end between 45-55, which is a good-but-not-great result. But this primary is going to be a fascinating test of the strength of county lines and political machines. There are a few things to look out for:

1. The turnout. The 2016 Democratic primary in New Jersey drew 900,000 voters, but the last contested off-year primary in the state -- the US Senate primary in 2013 -- drew 360,000 voters. Which number will this year's primary turnout be closer to, and who benefits from a low vs. high turnout primary?

I think the temptation is to say that high-turnout primaries hurt Murphy, but he's the only one who really has the resources to reach out to a million voters in the state (he's been advertising for a year) and in high-turnout primaries, a mix of that and county lines will put him over the edge. But low-turnout primaries draw frequent Democratic primary voters, and virtually all public polling has Murphy doing extremely well with that group. I honestly don't know one way or the other.

2. How Murphy does in Jersey's traditional "machine" counties: Hudson, Union, Essex, Passaic and Camden. If it's a close race, those counties will push him over the edge.

3. The Johnson vs. Wisniewski battle for second. They're both running against Murphy, and I've seen voters be split between both, but they are undoubtedly drawing from each other's voters.

4. North vs. South Jersey -- who favors who.

There's a bit more to this list but a lot of New Jersey political nerds are pretty excited about the Democratic primary as well.

[Badger]

My guess, by the way, is that Johnson is gonna announce a primary challenge to Menendez after all this is over. This primary challenge will get a lot more media coverage than the gubernatorial primary, in part because Menendez is such a tarred candidate but also because Johnson is the perfect foil against him, as his large platform plank was ethics reform and Johnson has proven himself a capable fundraiser (being black doesn't hurt as well).

I suppose that's possible-- the ethics angle would be a perfect contrast. My hope is that Rush Holt comes out of retirement to primary Menendez, or Pallone, but I would certainly support Johnson if it came down to him or Bobby.

Holt would be the perfect candidate for the Dems to nominate in a Trump midterm.

Exactly! He would be the antidote to Trump -- a positive, intelligent public servant who knows how to get things done. I almost wanted him to win in 2013, and he would be probably favored against Menendez in the primary

Endorsed over Menedez in a heartbeat.

[houseonaboat]

Guys, I think Murphy just trolled the state Democratic party: http://www.northjersey.com/story/news/new-jersey/governor/2017/05/31/murphy-spending-spree-agrees-limits-general-election/358391001/

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[Pollster]

Financially a smart move - winning the Dem primary was always going to be harder for him than the GE.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

My guess, by the way, is that Johnson is gonna announce a primary challenge to Menendez after all this is over. This primary challenge will get a lot more media coverage than the gubernatorial primary, in part because Menendez is such a tarred candidate but also because Johnson is the perfect foil against him, as his large platform plank was ethics reform and Johnson has proven himself a capable fundraiser (being black doesn't hurt as well).

I suppose that's possible-- the ethics angle would be a perfect contrast. My hope is that Rush Holt comes out of retirement to primary Menendez, or Pallone, but I would certainly support Johnson if it came down to him or Bobby.

Holt would be the perfect candidate for the Dems to nominate in a Trump midterm.

Exactly! He would be the antidote to Trump -- a positive, intelligent public servant who knows how to get things done. I almost wanted him to win in 2013, and he would be probably favored against Menendez in the primary

Endorsed over Menedez in a heartbeat.

[Lord Admirale]

My guess, by the way, is that Johnson is gonna announce a primary challenge to Menendez after all this is over. This primary challenge will get a lot more media coverage than the gubernatorial primary, in part because Menendez is such a tarred candidate but also because Johnson is the perfect foil against him, as his large platform plank was ethics reform and Johnson has proven himself a capable fundraiser (being black doesn't hurt as well).

I suppose that's possible-- the ethics angle would be a perfect contrast. My hope is that Rush Holt comes out of retirement to primary Menendez, or Pallone, but I would certainly support Johnson if it came down to him or Bobby.

Holt would be the perfect candidate for the Dems to nominate in a Trump midterm.

Exactly! He would be the antidote to Trump -- a positive, intelligent public servant who knows how to get things done. I almost wanted him to win in 2013, and he would be probably favored against Menendez in the primary

Endorsed over Menedez in a heartbeat.

[Dmitri Covasku]

Ah, my home state. Yeah, I do not see Kim Guadagno winning.

[houseonaboat]

I'll just note that from observation, momentum is strongly headed towards Johnson and against Murphy if social media is any indicator. I wonder if it reflects in the polling at all...

[LabourJersey]

I'll just note that from observation, momentum is strongly headed towards Johnson and against Murphy if social media is any indicator. I wonder if it reflects in the polling at all...

I have noticed a pull against Murphy-- the Goldman Sachs label is probably wearing him down. I still think he's likely to win, but I don't think he'd get a majority.

I think it will go something like this:
Murphy 47%
Johnson 27%
Wiz 20%
Lesniak 4%
Other 2%

[libertpaulian]

Ah, my home state. Yeah, I do not see Kim Guadagno winning.

The question isn't whether or not a Democrat is going to win this fall.  That's already settled.

The question is whether or not the Democrat can beat the Republican by 10% or more.

[KingSweden]

I really hope the attacks on Murphy don't bloody him too much for the fall.

[houseonaboat]

I really hope the attacks on Murphy don't bloody him too much for the fall.

Murphy will be fine, but I really do wonder how much he wins by. My guess is that a low-turnout primary hurts him, if only because it seems like informed voters are more likely to be split between the candidates and not vote the line (and Murphy's onslaught of advertising means he's the only one with the resources to be known by a majority of NJ voters). Conventional wisdom is that Murphy has 200,000 votes banked in because of the line, but if that CW is wrong for upballot races (i.e. governor), than Murphy could be in a world of trouble.

I'm not yet at the point where I think he could realistically lose, in part because Wisniewski and Johnson are only gonna spoil each other, and Lesniak and Brennan are bound to pick up their fare share of votes, but it's closer than what most insiders think as of now.

My guess is it'll be something like:

Murphy 42
Johnson 30
Wisniewski 20
Lesniak 5
Brennan/Zinna 3

[Pollster]

I can say with confidence that Ciattarelli's campaign is in overdrive. Guadagno has been out of the state to attend her father's funeral, which sadly could cost her votes due to lack of campaign appearances. GOP side will be close.

Updated predix:

Dem:
Murphy - 45
Johnson - 29
Wiz - 20
Lesniak - 5
Other - 1

GOP:
Guadagno - 52
Ciatarelli - 46
Other - 2

[Pollster]

Ciattarelli I believe is going to transition after this election into a challenge to Menendez. Even if he wins the GOP governor nom, Christie has likely put the race out of reach. Menendez would be a far more winnable race, especially with Ciattarelli's record of winning in a Dem district.