2017: NJ Gubernatorial/legislative elections

[Senator-elect Spark]

Who are likely to become the nominees and which party will win the state?

[Bigby]

After Christie, I feel like the Democrats will return only to repeat the cycle of parties changing horrible NJ Governor after horrible NJ Governor.

[Suburbia]

I am from NJ.

For the Democrats:

Stephen Sweeney
Phil Murphy
Steve Fulop
Ray Lesniak
Ron Rice, Sr.

For the Republicans:
Kim Guadango
Jon Bramnick
Tom Kean, Jr.
Jay Webber

I think it will be Sweeney vs. Gaudango. Sweeney wins by 10 points, and African American voters in Essex, Hudson, Union counties put Sweeney on top. If black turnout is very low, then Guadango may have a small chance of winning. The suburban vote in New Jersey could help Sweeney, but he may be too conservative for New Jersey Democrats.

[Kingpoleon]

Guadagno's only chance is to abandon the reform Democrat vote Christie got for holding tight to centrists and independents while gaining with women voters. Is Don Guardian considering running?

[Pandaguineapig]

Guadagno's only chance is to abandon the reform Democrat vote Christie got for holding tight to centrists and independents while gaining with women voters. Is Don Guardian considering running?

I'd he is the only republican who could possibly hold this seat

[Kingpoleon]

Guadagno's only chance is to abandon the reform Democrat vote Christie got for holding tight to centrists and independents while gaining with women voters. Is Don Guardian considering running?

I'd he is the only republican who could possibly hold this seat

Ironically, he'd be the second gay Governor to succeed someone of their own party with major corruption problems.

[Drew]

If Trump becomes POTUS, Guadagno may very well be the incumbent in this race, as Christie may very well get a job in Trump's cabinet (AG?).  I'd say a Dem wins either way, considering Christie's unpopularity and NJ's blueness.

[Oldiesfreak1854]

I think that Tom Kean Jr. could make it close.

If Trump becomes POTUS, Guadagno may very well be the incumbent in this race, as Christie may very well get a job in Trump's cabinet (AG?).  I'd say a Dem wins either way, considering Christie's unpopularity and NJ's blueness.

Having an unpopular lame duck isn't a guarantee that his/her party will lose.  See Oregon 2010, Washington 2012, etc.  And federal =/= statewide, either.

[Suburbia]

New Jersey Assemblywoman Shavonda Sumter (D-Paterson) is likely running for governor in 2017. If elected, she would be the first African American governor and the second female governor. It will be interesting. The black vote in Essex, Union, Middlesex, Passaic counties may go to Sumter, or they may go to Fulop, the Jersey City mayor.

[Maxwell]

I think that Tom Kean Jr. could make it close.

If Trump becomes POTUS, Guadagno may very well be the incumbent in this race, as Christie may very well get a job in Trump's cabinet (AG?).  I'd say a Dem wins either way, considering Christie's unpopularity and NJ's blueness.

Having an unpopular lame duck isn't a guarantee that his/her party will lose.  See Oregon 2010, Washington 2012, etc.  And federal =/= statewide, either.

Washington and Oregon are both deep blue states at this point who had flop blue state Governors. It's definitely not the same when the Republican Governor of a blue state flops - See Mitt Romney's Massachusetts allowed Deval Patrick to win double digits.

[sg0508]

Kean is nowhere in NJ politics.  After that 2006 trainwreck of a Senate race he ran, he's finished.

[Suburbia]

Senate President Stephen Sweeney could face backlash from the teachers unions (NJEA) for failing to put pension funding for a constitutional amendment vote in November 2017. He may lose their support, and unions and Big Labor is crucial to winning a Democratic primary in any state.

However, Philip Murphy, the former Goldman Sachs executive, is the favorite, but Jersey City mayor Steve Fulop, a young rising liberal, could make the primary competitive.


http://www.nj.com/politics/index.ssf/2016/08/with_pension_guarantee_dead_states_largest_union_l.html#incart_most-commented_politics_article

[hopper]

Probably Sweeney or Fulop wins the Governor's Race in 2017.

[hopper]

If Trump becomes POTUS, Guadagno may very well be the incumbent in this race, as Christie may very well get a job in Trump's cabinet (AG?).  I'd say a Dem wins either way, considering Christie's unpopularity and NJ's blueness.

Christie is unpopular because the state has too many fiscal issues to ignore and he was rarely in the state starting with his second term. He pissed off alot of New Jerseyans off for being out of the state so much and making the people that voted for him feel neglected.

[hopper]

New Jersey Assemblywoman Shavonda Sumter (D-Paterson) is likely running for governor in 2017. If elected, she would be the first African American governor and the second female governor. It will be interesting. The black vote in Essex, Union, Middlesex, Passaic counties may go to Sumter, or they may go to Fulop, the Jersey City mayor.

She doesn't have the Name ID that Fulop, or Sweeney have and she hasn't been running commericals like Philip Murphy has.

[JMT]

Is Kim Guadagno likely to run? She seems like the next logical candidate for Republicans, but I wonder if she'll actually decide to run

[LastMcGovernite]

One other element we may want to consider is that New Jersey also has a Senate race coming up, one where Bob Menendez might very well be primaried within his own party. To me, someone like Flop would be a natural choice for a senator, rather than governor.

[Flake]

I really don't know how the race is playing out right now but if I had to support someone at this point it would probably be Fulop

[Knives]

Barbara Buono deserves to run again, she was high energy and competent in an election where Dems abandoned her.

[Flake]

Barbara Buono deserves to run again, she was high energy and competent in an election where Dems abandoned her.

She's a D_OR now iirc

[Suburbia]

Barbara Buono deserves to run again, she was high energy and competent in an election where Dems abandoned her.

Buono moved to Oregon in 2014 or 2015 I believe. The New Jersey Democrats did not even do so much to help her campaign with infrastructure, voter registration, etc. In 2013, before Bridgegate, Christie was seen as the savior of the GOP. Buono is out of N.J. politics, and she probably knew why she left the Garden State.

http://www.nj.com/politics/index.ssf/2015/07/two_years_after_hitting_the_campaign_trail_buono_t.html

In all honesty, the only Republican that can win in 2017 is Tom Kean, Jr. He's competent, suburban, conservative-friendly. Yes, he lost to Bob Menendez in 2006, a Democratic wave year, but he comes from one of the key areas in the state where Republicans have to do well in in order to win statewide. Suburban Union County. Kean could beat Steve Sweeney or Phil Murphy if he can distance himself from Chris Christie's record.

[Suburbia]

#DraftMillySilva please.

Milly Silva is probably done in politics too, but if she ran, she could appeal to Latino voters in Hudson, Union, Middlesex counties. Phil Murphy, Steve Sweeney, or John Wisniewski, who supported Bernie Sanders in N.J. are the likely Democratic nominees. If Clinton wins the White House, will they distance from her? If Trump wins the White House, will Guadagno, Kean, Bramnick, or Shaun Golden distance from Trump and Christie?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Wisniewski

[Suburbia]

Somerset County Assemblyman Jack Ciattarelli (R-Somerset) may be running in 2017. He's widely expected to announce late this month, September.

http://observer.com/2016/09/2017-governors-race-ciattarelli-prepares-for-his-closeup-later-this-month/

[Suburbia]

The Mayor of Paramus, New Jersey, of Bergen County, endorsed Democratic gubernatorial frontrunner Phil Murphy on Friday. Bergen County is seen as a swing county in statewide elections.

http://www.njspotlight.com/stories/16/09/26/murphy-picks-up-endorsement-of-paramus-mayor-harbinger-for-bergen-county/

[Suburbia]

After Christie, I feel like the Democrats will return only to repeat the cycle of parties changing horrible NJ Governor after horrible NJ Governor.

True. In my opinion, the last greatest N.J. governor was Tom Kean, Sr. He won the majority of New Jerseyans in his 1985 reelection. He's a moderate Republican.