2017: NJ Gubernatorial/legislative elections

[Suburbia]

Jersey City mayor Steve Fulop shocked New Jersey political observers by announcing that he will not run for governor in 2017 as widely expected. He endorsed Phil Murphy, who is the Democratic frontrunner for governor.

http://www.nj.com/politics/index.ssf/2016/09/fulop_wont_run_for_nj_governor_shifting_2017_race_to_succeed_christie.html#incart_most_shared-politics

[rpryor03]

Jersey City mayor Steve Fulop shocked New Jersey political observers by announcing that he will not run for governor in 2017 as widely expected. He endorsed Phil Murphy, who is the Democratic frontrunner for governor.

http://www.nj.com/politics/index.ssf/2016/09/fulop_wont_run_for_nj_governor_shifting_2017_race_to_succeed_christie.html#incart_most_shared-politics

WOW. Was not expecting this.

[KingSweden]

Congratulations Governor Corzine.... err, Governor Murphy.

[KingSweden]

Another Goldman Sachs CEO? Gross.

TBF Murphy was an ambassador and seems to be cut from fairly progressive cloth compared to Sweeney. Still, basically Corsine part 2

[pikachu]

Goldman Sachs exec vs Steve Sweeney. Thanks NJ Democratic Party for reminding me why I dislike you so much,

[Suburbia]

Congratulations Governor Corzine.... err, Governor Murphy.

Hold your horses. Jack Ciattarelli, Tom Kean, Jr. and Kim Guadagno may have something to say. If Sweeney and Murphy is seen as unelectable, N.J. Democrats could force Cory Booker to leave the Senate and run for governor. They could recruit Dick Codey to run for governor as well.

http://observer.com/2016/03/kim-guadagno-s-2017-options-and-prospects/

[Suburbia]

Goldman Sachs exec vs Steve Sweeney. Thanks NJ Democratic Party for reminding me why I dislike you so much,

N.J. Democrats still have other options: Assemblywoman Shavonda Sumter (D-. She'd be the first black governor New Jersey ever had, but she doesn't have the money or the name identification to win. She'd be a good lieutenant governor running mate for Sweeney or Murphy.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shavonda_E._Sumter

http://www.nj.com/opinion/index.ssf/2016/02/could_she_be_new_jerseys_next_governor_the_backgro.html

[Suburbia]

It would be wonderful if Wisniewski actually won. We need more progressive leaders on the national scale, especially since Warren and Sanders are both up there in age.

Wisniewski is a good man, disagree with some issues, but he's a good man. If he doesn't run for governor, he can run for Frank Pallone's House Seat if Bob Menendez goes to jail or resigns by 2018. N.J. Democrats would not want Bob Torricelli or Steve Fulop, or even Steve Sweeney to run for Menendez's seat.

[pikachu]

It would be wonderful if Wisniewski actually won. We need more progressive leaders on the national scale, especially since Warren and Sanders are both up there in age.

Murphy looks to have the support of the important North Jersey parties, while Sweeney will have the Norcross machine behind him, so it's not going to happen. Though he might not be on the bad side of the Norcrosses, which could help...

[Progressive]

Can someone explain to me how someone with Fulop's charisma and resume can't get a coalition to coalesce behind him but someone like Murphy, a rich Goldman Sachs executive who, as a result of wealth, held lots of party posts and eventually a diplomatic role as ambassador to Germany, is considered a serious candidate?

I feel like in NY at least that resume would not fly...

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Can someone explain to me how someone with Fulop's charisma and resume can't get a coalition to coalesce behind him but someone like Murphy, a rich Goldman Sachs executive who, as a result of wealth, held lots of party posts and eventually a diplomatic role as ambassador to Germany, is considered a serious candidate?

I feel like in NY at least that resume would not fly...

Fulop isn't corrupt

[pikachu]

Murphy's the frontrunner, and he might've just locked the entire thing up. He has the endorsements of pretty much of all of the important North Jersey counties, Ras Baraka (mayor of Newark), Brian Stack (important in Hudson County), and Frank Pallone.

Can someone explain to me how someone with Fulop's charisma and resume can't get a coalition to coalesce behind him but someone like Murphy, a rich Goldman Sachs executive who, as a result of wealth, held lots of party posts and eventually a diplomatic role as ambassador to Germany, is considered a serious candidate?

I feel like in NY at least that resume would not fly...

NJ's politics are patronage-based, and Murphy starting working the North Jersey party circuit much earlier than Fulop did. Also, this being New Jersey, there were rumors that Fulop was involved in some random shady stuff. Still, if/when Menendez goes, I'd guess that Fulop would be a top contender for his seat if he wants it.

[Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas]

Sweeney's campaign ended for all practical purposes ended when he threatened to prosecute unions for campaigning against his policies.

Murphy's got this unless he runs a terrible campaign and Guandango sneaks in.

[windjammer]

Regarding Murphy,
Are the unions favourable to him? They seem to be powerful in NJ.

[Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas]

Regarding Murphy,
Are the unions favourable to him? They seem to be powerful in NJ.

They generally lean Democrat and are sure as hell not backing Sweeney, so yeah.

[hurricanehink]

https://www.google.com/amp/www.philly.com/philly/news/politics/20161007_Sweeney_will_not_run_for_governor.html%3famphtml=y - Sweeney indeed not running next year!

[pikachu]

https://www.google.com/amp/www.philly.com/philly/news/politics/20161007_Sweeney_will_not_run_for_governor.html%3famphtml=y - Sweeney indeed not running next year!

It's really amazing what Murphy has managed to pull off. Fulop and Sweeney (among many others) have been plotting for this race for years now, and had the patronage of some of the most important men in the state (especially Sweeney), but Murphy's pretty much completely upended this. Even though I'm really ambivalent on his run, this is some pretty impressive maneuvering.

[windjammer]

What are Murphy's views by the way?

[Suburbia]

https://www.google.com/amp/www.philly.com/philly/news/politics/20161007_Sweeney_will_not_run_for_governor.html%3famphtml=y - Sweeney indeed not running next year!

Yes. It's a surprising development. Phil Murphy really impressed and influenced the N.J. Democratic party bosses. However, he'll have to win Essex County, where the black and Latino population is centered. He'll have to win South Jersey, where Sweeney would have had some sway.

Kean, Ciattarelli, Bramnick, or Guadagno could beat Murphy if they distance themselves from Chris Christie's gubernatorial reign. Kyrillos, maybe. I rate this election as Likely D.


http://www.nj.com/politics/index.ssf/2016/10/sweeney_says_he_wont_run_for_nj_governor.html#incart_most_shared-politics

[Suburbia]

If the Democratic primary is Murphy vs. Ray Lesniak vs. some other Democrat, then turnout in June 2017 will be pretty low. Black and Latino turnout will be low.

[Suburbia]

Murphy got the endorsement of Trenton mayor Eric Jackson and he may get the endorsement of Newark mayor Ras Baraka soon. Some people are wondering, why is a former Goldman Sachs CEO consolidating the N.J. Democratic Party?

http://www.nj.com/mercer/index.ssf/2016/10/trenton_mayor_to_endorse_phil_murphy_for_nj_govern.html

[pikachu]

Kean, Ciattarelli, Bramnick, or Guadagno could beat Murphy if they distance themselves from Chris Christie's gubernatorial reign. Kyrillos, maybe. I rate this election as Likely D.

Hell no. All of those people you mentioned do have a solid chance of defeating Murphy in 2021, though, as he's inevitably going to have an approval rating in the 30s. His tenure will look a lot like Corzine's IMO.

Let's wait until his term to bury him None of those candidates are as good as Christie 09, New Jersey is hostile to Republicans anyway (and it'll get worse for them before it gets better), and we don't know what the political climate will be in 2021. While the Corzine comparison is tempting, it's important to remember that the economy was completely in the shi**er in November 09, and he still kept it close. He'll also be an incumbent in a safe D state, and those are tough to take out.

[Kingpoleon]

I rate this Likely D, too, for now. Murphy probably wins by five to eight percent, but someone unexpected like Christine Todd Whitman or Don Guardian could narrow it far more or even win.

[pikachu]

I rate this Likely D, too, for now. Fulop probably wins by five to eight percent, but someone unexpected like Christine Todd Whitman or Don Guardian could narrow it far more or even win.

Fulop dropped out last week, Christie Todd Whitman literally hasn't done anything in state politics for 15 years, and Don Guardian has no statewide recognition and wouldn't look good for ditching Atlantic City. A Republican isn't winning this race barring some major scandal for Murphy (though considering this is New Jersey, maybe even with one...).

[rpryor03]

We need you now, Rush Holt!