2017: NJ Gubernatorial/legislative elections
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  2017: NJ Gubernatorial/legislative elections
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Gass3268
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« Reply #75 on: January 09, 2017, 12:18:04 PM »

Murphy is too connected to Wall Street to get my endorsement in the primary, but I'd be happy to see him replace Christie next year if and when it comes to it.
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LabourJersey
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« Reply #76 on: January 10, 2017, 09:27:33 PM »

Murphy will win this in a landslide, IMO

The only thing that could change that is a Sanders endorsement for Wisniewski.

A Sanders endorsement would be interesting and could upend things, but Sanders only won 35% of the vote in the primary last June. While I like Wisniewski more than Murphy, I think the establishment means a lot in the state, and Murphy has the whole establishment behind him at this point.
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pikachu
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« Reply #77 on: January 10, 2017, 09:40:31 PM »

Murphy will win. All of the state establishment wants Murphy, and Wisniewski likely doesn't have the firepower to make a good insurgent run; it doesn't even look like Wisniewski will win the endorsement of the Middlesex party (his home county). Progressives' best chance here would be to get a Rush Holt type endorsed by Sanders, and take advantage of Murphy's current anonymity.
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The Other Castro
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« Reply #78 on: January 12, 2017, 03:00:15 PM »

Lt. Gov Kim Guadagno is in.

http://www.app.com/story/news/2017/01/12/kim-guadagno-files-paperwork-run-governor/96492914/
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Beet
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« Reply #79 on: January 12, 2017, 03:08:23 PM »

Murphy will win this in a landslide, IMO

The only thing that could change that is a Sanders endorsement for Wisniewski.

A Sanders endorsement would be interesting and could upend things, but Sanders only won 35% of the vote in the primary last June. While I like Wisniewski more than Murphy, I think the establishment means a lot in the state, and Murphy has the whole establishment behind him at this point.

That was only because the DNC rigged it for Hillary, you see /s
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Tintrlvr
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« Reply #80 on: January 12, 2017, 03:20:52 PM »


Guadagno and Ciattarelli both seem like bad picks to even try to hold the governorship. They were both publicly anti-Trump which could offend a lot of Trumpists, and I doubt their bold stance on that makes a damn bit of difference to the people who utterly despise the Christie admin, which Guadagno will be tied to. Coattarelli might do marginally better than Guadagno, but I suspect this race is likely D, and more on the safe side than the lean side.

Realistically, the Republicans don't have the option of trying to retain the governorship, so who they pick is basically irrelevant (and they know this). They're just trying to salvage what they can in the state legislature. Guadagno is a sacrificial lamb. She's too tied to Christie to have a political career in New Jersey after the end of Christie's administration.
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houseonaboat
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« Reply #81 on: January 12, 2017, 08:20:18 PM »

Murphy will win. All of the state establishment wants Murphy, and Wisniewski likely doesn't have the firepower to make a good insurgent run; it doesn't even look like Wisniewski will win the endorsement of the Middlesex party (his home county). Progressives' best chance here would be to get a Rush Holt type endorsed by Sanders, and take advantage of Murphy's current anonymity.

Yeah New Jersey is a *very* establishment state. I'd argue it's a model for other state Democratic Parties, though that's up for debate, but virtually every township in the state has a local Democratic council, who're engaged with the county council, who are in turn engaged with statewide Dems, so winning the county line can bank you a lot of votes. That doesn't even begin to explain Norcross influence on South Jersey, Baraka influence in Newark, and Fulop/Menendez influence in Hudson County. Murphy has almost every important county line and Wisniewski is hated by state Dems because he was seen as a bad chair for the party, so Murphy probably has this locked up.
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bronz4141
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« Reply #82 on: January 12, 2017, 09:17:37 PM »

Yes, Guadagno is running for Governor in 2017. She will most likely lose this year, but she could come back in 2021 if Murphy screws up, or she could run for Senate in 2018 or 2020. If Booker runs for president in 2020, Guadagno may be the GOP Senate frontrunner in N.J., next to Bramnick, Jay Webber, or Tom Kean, Jr.
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Drew
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« Reply #83 on: January 12, 2017, 09:23:33 PM »

Murphy will win this in a landslide, IMO

The only thing that could change that is a Sanders endorsement for Wisniewski.

A Sanders endorsement would be interesting and could upend things, but Sanders only won 35% of the vote in the primary last June. While I like Wisniewski more than Murphy, I think the establishment means a lot in the state, and Murphy has the whole establishment behind him at this point.

That was only because the DNC rigged it for Hillary, you see /s

Didn't Bernie skip campaigning in NJ so that he could focus on CA over that last week?  That would be partly to blame for the particularly poor performance.  But yes, NJ is very establishment, and he basically had no chance of winning it anyway.
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bronz4141
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« Reply #84 on: January 12, 2017, 09:40:48 PM »


Guadagno and Ciattarelli both seem like bad picks to even try to hold the governorship. They were both publicly anti-Trump which could offend a lot of Trumpists, and I doubt their bold stance on that makes a damn bit of difference to the people who utterly despise the Christie admin, which Guadagno will be tied to. Coattarelli might do marginally better than Guadagno, but I suspect this race is likely D, and more on the safe side than the lean side.

Realistically, the Republicans don't have the option of trying to retain the governorship, so who they pick is basically irrelevant (and they know this). They're just trying to salvage what they can in the state legislature. Guadagno is a sacrificial lamb. She's too tied to Christie to have a political career in New Jersey after the end of Christie's administration.

The GOP could lose seats in the Senate and Assembly; that would be bad for Bramnick or Kean's Senate prospects in 2018 against Menendez.
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houseonaboat
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« Reply #85 on: January 13, 2017, 01:04:05 AM »

I'll also add that Ciatterelli is a very, very good candidate, and NJ Republicans would be foolish to offer him as a sacrificial lamb. He could compete for Leonard Lance's seat and probably win
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Miles
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« Reply #86 on: January 13, 2017, 05:03:59 AM »

TBH, I've always liked Guadagno for some reason, but the Democrats need more Governorships.
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smoltchanov
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« Reply #87 on: January 13, 2017, 05:14:56 AM »

TBH, I've always liked Guadagno for some reason, but the Democrats need more Governorships.

Their (Democrats)  previous experiment with Goldman Sachs wasn't completely successfull....
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bronz4141
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« Reply #88 on: January 13, 2017, 11:52:26 AM »

Two developments: Eversham, N.J. mayor Randy Brown will not run for N.J. governor. He's a Republican. He is probably seeing the writing on the wall.

Assemblyman Jack Ciattarelli has cancer, but he will continue to run for governor. He's a good man. He should run for Senate in 2018 or 2020, or he may Guadagno's lieutenant governor running mate in the fall.

http://www.nj.com/politics/index.ssf/2017/01/ciatterelli_discloses_cancer_says_he_will_continue.html#incart_most-read_politics_article

http://www.nj.com/politics/index.ssf/2017/01/nfl_coachmayor_nj_governor.html#incart_river_index

However, if Joe Piscopo runs for N.J. governor, could Guadagno lose the NJ GOP nomination? It's possible.
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LabourJersey
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« Reply #89 on: January 13, 2017, 03:27:39 PM »

Murphy will win. All of the state establishment wants Murphy, and Wisniewski likely doesn't have the firepower to make a good insurgent run; it doesn't even look like Wisniewski will win the endorsement of the Middlesex party (his home county). Progressives' best chance here would be to get a Rush Holt type endorsed by Sanders, and take advantage of Murphy's current anonymity.

Yeah New Jersey is a *very* establishment state. I'd argue it's a model for other state Democratic Parties, though that's up for debate, but virtually every township in the state has a local Democratic council, who're engaged with the county council, who are in turn engaged with statewide Dems, so winning the county line can bank you a lot of votes. That doesn't even begin to explain Norcross influence on South Jersey, Baraka influence in Newark, and Fulop/Menendez influence in Hudson County. Murphy has almost every important county line and Wisniewski is hated by state Dems because he was seen as a bad chair for the party, so Murphy probably has this locked up.

That is not true at all. A huge number of townships (and boroughs, towns, etc.) have Republican councils in NJ. One town direct north of mine is a bedroom community of New York, and has never elected a Democratic council member since the 1890s!

Also, at least half a dozens counties have all-GOP or mostly-GOP county councils (known as freeholders in NJ), such as Morris, Burlington, Warren, Salem, etc. So the Democrats by no means have a monopoly on local elections throughout the state.
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houseonaboat
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« Reply #90 on: January 13, 2017, 04:38:55 PM »

Murphy will win. All of the state establishment wants Murphy, and Wisniewski likely doesn't have the firepower to make a good insurgent run; it doesn't even look like Wisniewski will win the endorsement of the Middlesex party (his home county). Progressives' best chance here would be to get a Rush Holt type endorsed by Sanders, and take advantage of Murphy's current anonymity.

Yeah New Jersey is a *very* establishment state. I'd argue it's a model for other state Democratic Parties, though that's up for debate, but virtually every township in the state has a local Democratic council, who're engaged with the county council, who are in turn engaged with statewide Dems, so winning the county line can bank you a lot of votes. That doesn't even begin to explain Norcross influence on South Jersey, Baraka influence in Newark, and Fulop/Menendez influence in Hudson County. Murphy has almost every important county line and Wisniewski is hated by state Dems because he was seen as a bad chair for the party, so Murphy probably has this locked up.

That is not true at all. A huge number of townships (and boroughs, towns, etc.) have Republican councils in NJ. One town direct north of mine is a bedroom community of New York, and has never elected a Democratic council member since the 1890s!

Also, at least half a dozens counties have all-GOP or mostly-GOP county councils (known as freeholders in NJ), such as Morris, Burlington, Warren, Salem, etc. So the Democrats by no means have a monopoly on local elections throughout the state.

That came out wrong, I don't mean the City Council is Democratic. I mean there's a chapter of the Democratic Party specifically for that town. So Town X, NJ has a "Town Democratic Committee" which engages which the county party, which in turn engages with the state party, so winning the county line is huge because a lot of those local Democrats are engaged with primary voters throughout the year.
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Pandaguineapig
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« Reply #91 on: January 13, 2017, 04:49:32 PM »

Guadagno's only chance is for Christie to get an ambassadorshipso that she can run as an incumbent
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LabourJersey
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« Reply #92 on: January 13, 2017, 05:55:42 PM »

Murphy will win. All of the state establishment wants Murphy, and Wisniewski likely doesn't have the firepower to make a good insurgent run; it doesn't even look like Wisniewski will win the endorsement of the Middlesex party (his home county). Progressives' best chance here would be to get a Rush Holt type endorsed by Sanders, and take advantage of Murphy's current anonymity.

Yeah New Jersey is a *very* establishment state. I'd argue it's a model for other state Democratic Parties, though that's up for debate, but virtually every township in the state has a local Democratic council, who're engaged with the county council, who are in turn engaged with statewide Dems, so winning the county line can bank you a lot of votes. That doesn't even begin to explain Norcross influence on South Jersey, Baraka influence in Newark, and Fulop/Menendez influence in Hudson County. Murphy has almost every important county line and Wisniewski is hated by state Dems because he was seen as a bad chair for the party, so Murphy probably has this locked up.

That is not true at all. A huge number of townships (and boroughs, towns, etc.) have Republican councils in NJ. One town direct north of mine is a bedroom community of New York, and has never elected a Democratic council member since the 1890s!

Also, at least half a dozens counties have all-GOP or mostly-GOP county councils (known as freeholders in NJ), such as Morris, Burlington, Warren, Salem, etc. So the Democrats by no means have a monopoly on local elections throughout the state.

That came out wrong, I don't mean the City Council is Democratic. I mean there's a chapter of the Democratic Party specifically for that town. So Town X, NJ has a "Town Democratic Committee" which engages which the county party, which in turn engages with the state party, so winning the county line is huge because a lot of those local Democrats are engaged with primary voters throughout the year.


Sorry, I see what you meant now. And I do agree with you there; I think the average democratic primary voter in NJ has a better connection with the local establishment that those in, say, California or Colorado presumably. A legacy of the turn of the century machines, mostly.
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bronz4141
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« Reply #93 on: January 13, 2017, 08:12:55 PM »

Wisniewski feels that N.J. Democrats are doing a coronation with Phil Murphy being the frontrunner for N.J. governor. Wisniewski could be a good lieutenant governor running mate choice, or he could be a good House candidate if Frank Pallone runs for Senate in 2018 or 2020 if Menendez is indicted or retires or if Booker runs for president or is the VP choice in 2020.

http://observer.com/2017/01/gubernatorial-candidate-wisniewski-primary-shouldnt-be-coronation-for-murphy/
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houseonaboat
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« Reply #94 on: January 14, 2017, 03:18:15 PM »

I think this race is gonna heat up quite a bit, fwiw. Wouldn't discount the possibility of a Sanders endorsement at all.
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Oldiesfreak1854
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« Reply #95 on: January 14, 2017, 06:25:36 PM »

Hope Kean runs.  Guadogno is DOA, given her ties to Christie.  But Kean is moderate enough that he could definitely win it, and he has less Christie baggage.
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henster
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« Reply #96 on: January 15, 2017, 12:36:25 AM »

Christie is NJ's Bush no Dem is losing this race.
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Pandaguineapig
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« Reply #97 on: January 15, 2017, 01:10:42 AM »

Hope Kean runs.  Guadogno is DOA, given her ties to Christie.  But Kean is moderate enough that he could definitely win it, and he has less Christie baggage.
I guess it doesn't matter since this race is lean-likely D but apparently Christie and Guadogno hate each other's guts
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pikachu
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« Reply #98 on: January 15, 2017, 02:20:23 AM »

Hope Kean runs.  Guadogno is DOA, given her ties to Christie.  But Kean is moderate enough that he could definitely win it, and he has less Christie baggage.

The GOP is going to lose this race because Christie's beyond unpopular, and Kean, much like every other Republican in the state, isn't well-known enough to be seen as distinct from Christie.

I think this race is gonna heat up quite a bit, fwiw. Wouldn't discount the possibility of a Sanders endorsement at all.

A Sanders endorsement for Wisniewski would be an interesting test to see how strong the Sanders brand is. Like it's been said a lot on this thread, the NJ Democratic establishment is extremely strong, and it would be a big victory for the Sanders wing if they could somehow pull it off.
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Fusionmunster
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« Reply #99 on: January 15, 2017, 02:37:16 AM »

I think this race is gonna heat up quite a bit, fwiw. Wouldn't discount the possibility of a Sanders endorsement at all.

A Sander's endorsement wouldn't mean much in NJ. One just has to look at the NJ Dem Primary to see why.
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