Cruz allowing Kasich to compete in New Mexico and Oregon

[Matty]

So is kasich basically telling his supporters to vote for ted cruz?

[Ronnie]

I could easily see something like a 33-33-33 split in Oregon now, lol.  NM will probably be a decisive Trump win, though, since Kasich does not suit the state well at all.  Still, very interesting development, and I'm now even more excited about this primary process than before.

[Fargobison]

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https://twitter.com/ShaneGoldmacher/status/724426822595829760

[Fargobison]

So is kasich basically telling his supporters to vote for ted cruz?

Basically he has by releasing that statement.

[Lief 🗽]

Wow. This confirms that the private polls are as bad for Lyin' Ted since he stole Colorado as the public ones! I haven't seen a dishonest campaign gimmick backfire this spectacularly since... Lyin' Ted lied about Carson dropping out and stole Iowa!

[Kingpoleon]

Good. Hopefully Kasich reciprocates. I'm supporting him, but I'm still a little mad about how quickly he threw Rubio under the bus when Rubio encouraged his Ohio voters to vote for Kasich.

I can't support this. A corrupt bargain like this makes Donald Trump right: everyone is willing to be corrupt to take him down.

I can't support anyone willing to take the low road to the highest office in the land.

It's not a corrupt bargain or a low road. It's the rules of the system. It's not like they're cheating or anything. This wouldn't even be an issue with IRV.

If Trump and Cruz did this to Kasich in an alternate scenario, we'd all be fussing about it. This is the first legitimate thing which I can honestly say I cannot respect about Kasich very easily.

[Fargobison]

Here's Donny!!

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[#TheShadowyAbyss]

Cruz has a better shot in Oregon than Kasich does, I'm interested in why Cruz and Kasich are coming up with this plan. Yeah, Cruz needs Kasich out of the way in IN in order to beat Trump there.

[Gass3268]

You can smell the desperation. Sad!

[The Free North]

Honestly they could actually do a lot of good if they worked together (good as in stopping Trump). Kasich and Cruz have supporters that dont really overlap much, but they do split the never-trump vote. If they coordinated states for each of them to focus on (even down to the CD level) they could probably deny Trump the nomination.

[Likely Voter]

Obviously they should have started doing this weeks ago. Will this be the limit of this 'collaboration'? I assume Kasich will avoid MT, NE and the Dakotas as well, but what about WV, KY, WA, NJ and most importantly..CA?  Certainly in CA they are going to have to split up the CDs between them. Keeping Trump from winning a majority of CA CDs is pretty much the whole ballgame for the Stop Trump movement. 

[PeteB]

I am not a big fan of this agreement although it will probably help both Kasich and Cruz. It seems to be giving one thing to Trump that he didn't have - a victim identity.

On the other hand, I do not agree that this is a better deal for Cruz. He still has to win IN and if, after this Kasich gift, he doesn't, it's all over for him. Kasich on the other hand was not expected to win OR or NM so any decent result will benefit him. In OR especially, where Kasich is getting media endorsements, not having Cruz as the third wheel, may propel him past Trump.

Not to mention that Kasich's people are boasting that they have the IN delegation on their side post first ballot anyway. Last, but not least, this sends a clear signal to Cruz voters in CT, RI and MD that they should vote strategically for Kasich, and opens up a real chance for a Kasich win (it also does the same for Cruz in MT and NE but he was probably doing well there anyway).

All in all, this is a Machiavellian move, which may or may not work. It will be interesting to see.

[Wisconsin+17]

Bad deal for Cruz, really.

[bballrox4717]

It really doesn't matter how many pledged delegates Cruz ends up with anymore, now that he has no path to 1237. It's all about preventing Trump a victory at the first ballot of the convention. Cruz knows that at a contested convention, it's all about the actual identities and loyalties of the delegates, not the total number of votes. Not only that, but if Kasich manages to beat Trump one on one, then it gives Cruz further legitimacy in a convention that the majority of the voters is against Trump's nomination, and that he only won due to the division of the field.

Both candidates have a serious problem in that voters are uncomfortable with denying the nomination to the leading candidate. They both know it and it's likely a reason why Trump has been surging. They have to do something to prove that the majority of Republicans are committed to denying Trump the nomination.

[Pragmatic Conservative]

Obviously they should have started doing this weeks ago. Will this be the limit of this 'collaboration'? I assume Kasich will avoid MT, NE and the Dakotas as well, but what about WV, KY, WA, NJ and most importantly..CA?  Certainly in CA they are going to have to split up the CDs between them. Keeping Trump from winning a majority of CA CDs is pretty much the whole ballgame for the Stop Trump movement.  

Kentucky has already voted on the GOP side , but anyways I thought Cruz had a good chance in Oregon why would he effectively want to cede Oregon, most of the more pro kasich areas have less votes in the GOP primary and the areas with more GOP voters are far more conservative. I am not sure why they did not do this before with Cruz ceeding the north east states for Indiana, Washington, Oregon, and the Dakotas.

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

the problem with this is that voters decide who they will vote for, not the campaigns of the candidate they support.

[Seriously?]

https://www.tedcruz.org/news/cruz-campaign-releases-statement-upcoming-primaries/

This is odd to say the least.

My first inkling is that these two losers attempting to openly collude is not going to go over very well with the non-GOPe base. Voters don't like being told what to do.

[Seriously?]

Looks like he's willing to do whatever it takes to get Kasich out of Indiana, even if it means ceding Oregon and New Mexico to Trump.

The ironic thing is that if the voters listen, which is dubious, Kasich gives up a winner take all state by CD and statewide in return for two proportional states Oregon is basically as proportional as it gets with like a 3% floor and New Mexico requires a 15% floor.

But I am not so convinced that the voters will like Cruz and Kasich telling them how to vote. They'll vote Trump instead.

At the end of the day, both Kay-sick and lyin' Ted have the same chance of winning the nomination on the first ballot as Lief.

[Illuminati Blood Drinker]

TRUMP SPEAKS!

https://www.donaldjtrump.com/press-releases/response-to-cruz-and-kasich

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

So it's 1836, and Trump is Van Buren and Cruz and Kasich are the Whigs?

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Looks like he's willing to do whatever it takes to get Kasich out of Indiana, even if it means ceding Oregon and New Mexico to Trump.

The ironic thing is that if the voters listen, which is dubious, Kasich gives up a winner take all state by CD and statewide in return for two proportional states Oregon is basically as proportional as it gets with like a 3% floor and New Mexico requires a 15% floor.

But I am not so convinced that the voters will like Cruz and Kasich telling them how to vote. They'll vote Trump instead.

At the end of the day, both Kay-sick and lyin' Ted have the same chance of winning the nomination on the first ballot as Lief.

TRUMP's chances of winning on the first ballot aren't great if he doesn't win Indiana. Is it doable? Sure. But it really puts him under pressure to surprise in Montana, Nebraska, or South Dakota.

[dax00]

If campaign strategy becomes public enough, it will be all the harder for Trump to win CDs in Indiana. However, the way his target delegate counts have played out, he doesn't need much in the way of Indiana. It would take complete forfeiture of votes by one of the anti-Trump delegates in California to truly dent the Trump march to 1237.

[Seriously?]

Looks like he's willing to do whatever it takes to get Kasich out of Indiana, even if it means ceding Oregon and New Mexico to Trump.

The ironic thing is that if the voters listen, which is dubious, Kasich gives up a winner take all state by CD and statewide in return for two proportional states Oregon is basically as proportional as it gets with like a 3% floor and New Mexico requires a 15% floor.

But I am not so convinced that the voters will like Cruz and Kasich telling them how to vote. They'll vote Trump instead.

At the end of the day, both Kay-sick and lyin' Ted have the same chance of winning the nomination on the first ballot as Lief.

TRUMP's chances of winning on the first ballot aren't great if he doesn't win Indiana. Is it doable? Sure. But it really puts him under pressure to surprise in Montana, Nebraska, or South Dakota.

Assuming the polls are true, Trump should take somewhere between 95 and 106 of the 118 pledged delegates up for grabs on Tuesday. He'll lose 9 or 10 in RI and a few CDs in MD.

Assuming PPP is right and Trump >50 in CT, he'll take all 28. He'll also take the 16 in DE and the 17 statewide in PA. The range in RI at 50% is likely 9-10. He should win the statewide in MD (38), but lose a CD or two. I put him in the 26-35 delegate range there.

After April 26, Trump will basically be at 950 of 1,237.

Worst case, assume 9-12 in Indiana.

Also assume Nebraska goes Cruz and West Virginia should be a near clear Trump sweep of the 37 delegates there the next week.

Piece those two together and you're now very close to 1,000.

Oregon (28) is straight proportional. Worst case, he'll take 1/3 of those delegates, so let's give him 9.

Washington State (44) is proportional for the statewide delegates (14) and modified WTA for the 10 CDs. >50% takes the district, <50% is 2/1. Trump will get 10-15 delegates even if the loses the state.

You're now roughly at 1,020. About 200-225 to go.

Trump takes New Jersey's 51 delegates. Roughly 1,070.

Trump gets 5-15 delegates out of proportional NM (24). Roughly 1,080.

Cruz wins SD and MT.

Trump would need about 140-160 or so of the 177 CA delegates to go over the top.

Also remember, that a number of the 54 CD delegates in PA have softly agreed to vote for the winner in that district. Trump is polling > 50% according to a PPP tweet in PA. That increases the likelihood that he'll get a decent portion of the unpledged there as well, minimizing California's significance a tad.

[dax00]

The range in RI at 50% is likely 9-10

50% in RI would win 1 each of CD1, CD2, and RNC delegates, as well as 5 of 10 statewide, for a total of 8.

[Seriously?]

The range in RI at 50% is likely 9-10

50% in RI would win 1 each of CD1, CD2, and RNC delegates, as well as 5 of 10 statewide, for a total of 8.

No, it would be 9 at minimum, 10 at maximum depending on how much over 50% and whether both Cruz and Kasich break 20%. RI rounds down and gives the extra delegates to the winner statewide. There are 10 statewide delegates.

It's very likely the CDs and RNCs will break down 3/3/3 as all 3 candidates will clear the 10% floor.

If it's Trump 50, Cruz, 25, Kasich 25, it would be Trump 6, Cruz 2, Kasich 2 for the statewide tally.
If it ends up Trump 55, Kaisch 26, Cruz 19, for example, it would be Trump 7, Kasich 2, Cruz 1.

(This obviously assumes PPP is right and Trump doesn't get over 60%).