Do First Exit Polls Normally Overstate Sanders Support?

[Reds4]

I'm remembering that CNN exit polls had Clinton 52-48 over Sanders which obviously wasn't close. Wondering if anyone has any data on whether the democratic exit polls have been too Sanders friendly in most states or not?

[Holmes]

I can't think of much that haven't. One that I seem to recall is Michigan that had him +3, and he won by a little less than 2.

[Lief 🗽]

Exit polls generally overstate youth turnout (not just this year, but in general), so Sanders has done better in early exit polls in many, though not all (IA, NV, OK off the top of my head), states.

[The Other Castro]

The NY exit poll was more of an anomaly. They heavily overused Buffalo due to the poll opening time differences and came up with a very Sanders-friendly number.

[Holmes]

Exit polls generally overstate youth turnout (not just this year, but in general), so Sanders has done better in early exit polls in many, though not all (IA, NV, OK off the top of my head), states.

To be fair, caucus entrance polls are sh**t.

[IceSpear]

Not always, but more often than not.

Overstated Hillary: Iowa, New Hampshire, Oklahoma
Overstated Bernie: Nevada, South Carolina, Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, Massachusetts, Tennessee, Texas, Mississippi, Ohio, New York

The rest were about right (within 5 points by my definition) or had no exit poll.

Aside from Massachusetts, it looks like the exit pollsters have a hard time polling minorities.

[Xing]

In states with high minority populations, yes, but the trend probably isn't strong enough to assume most exit polls will be biased in his favor.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

The NY exit poll was more of an anomaly. They heavily overused Buffalo due to the poll opening time differences and came up with a very Sanders-friendly number.

How would the poll opening times help Bernie in the exit poll? Bernie overwhelmingly won the counties that didn't open the polls until noon. The only 6am county he won was Putnam.

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

The NY exit poll was more of an anomaly. They heavily overused Buffalo due to the poll opening time differences and came up with a very Sanders-friendly number.

How would the poll opening times help Bernie in the exit poll? Bernie overwhelmingly won the counties that didn't open the polls until noon. The only 6am county he won was Putnam.

Losing 52-48 in Erie County counts as winning.

[The Other Castro]

The NY exit poll was more of an anomaly. They heavily overused Buffalo due to the poll opening time differences and came up with a very Sanders-friendly number.

How would the poll opening times help Bernie in the exit poll? Bernie overwhelmingly won the counties that didn't open the polls until noon. The only 6am county he won was Putnam.

Maybe they extrapolated how he would perform in other areas based on how he performed in certain earlier areas, but the sample friendly areas they used were disproportionately better for him and more than the exit pollsters expected.