Post Kasich and Cruz collusion announcement: Who wins Indiana?

[dax00]

Kasich never publicly said "vote Cruz" in Wisconsin. A quarter of his supporters still switched to Cruz on election day.

Cruz never publicly said "vote Kasich" in Ohio. A quarter of his supporters still switched to Kasich on election day.

This is insurance. Cruz would've won Indiana even without this.

1. Cruz needs more help than any he received in Wisconsin.

2. That was Rubio.

3. No, he won't. Polls say otherwise.

[sportydude]

Gass, first time in my lifetime that Indiana has mattered in a primary season for the GOP.

I wasn't aware of that fact. Furthermore, it's an "isolated" state, meaning there's no other state voting that day, which makes the primary even more interesting.
The last time the Indiana Republican primary actually mattered was ... 1976!

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

The type of voter who wants to vote for Kasich is not going to vote for Cruz.  Trump wins.

Cruz won't need Kasich voters to beat Trump.  Cruz voters will, however, be galvanized by a renewed effort to stop Trump, and come out in greater numbers.  Cruz was going to win anyway, and will still win.

[ashridge]

Cruz was going to win Indiana anyway, but this may up his margin of win enough to win all the delegates there, instead of just most.

And lol at people citing polls in CA, which doesn't vote for 6 weeks.

[standwrand]

Cruz is basically living in IN for the next week; he's going to 6 different cities today. Trump will do maybe two more rallies: Cruz will win IN whether or not Kasich helps him.

[Gass3268]

Safe TRUMP after this. Voters don't vote for losers, and this is as sure a sign of someone who knows he's losing as I've ever seen.

That's a joke. Cruz is gonna win by 3-7 points in Indiana.

Gass, first time in my lifetime that Indiana has mattered in a primary season for the GOP.

It's a big deal because if Trump wins the race is over. However, it also doesn't matter because even if Cruz does win by 3-7 points, Trump is going to pick up 9-12 delegates which is all he needs with the polling numbers he's getting out of California and New Jersey.

It depends on how Trump's percentage in California will translate to delegates (also NJ is WTA so his percentage there doesn't matter). IF we assume Trump wins California and the only question is by how much, then a win in Indiana would probably get him the nomination. If he loses Indiana, Trump will probably need over 120 delegates from California. I'm not sure how big of a win PV that is though.

McCain won California by 7.69% over Romney in the competitive California race in 2008. McCain ended up winning 89.6% of the delegates to only 8.7% for Romney. Trump currently has a polling average lead of 20.5%. My guess is if he can keep his lead 10%, he's probably going to win enough in California to get where he needs to get.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

I think it is about time Cruz packs up in Indiana and starts focusing elsewhere. Polls keep on suggesting he's going to get crushed but Indiana. In my opinion though Cruz is a much better fit than Trump in the state so I still think Cruz could get within 1-5 points.

If Cruz loses Indiana it's over.  He's not packing it up.

[Vosem]

Kasich never publicly said "vote Cruz" in Wisconsin. A quarter of his supporters still switched to Cruz on election day.

Cruz never publicly said "vote Kasich" in Ohio. A quarter of his supporters still switched to Kasich on election day.

This is insurance. Cruz would've won Indiana even without this.

1. Cruz needs more help than any he received in Wisconsin.

2. That was Rubio.

3. No, he won't. Polls say otherwise.

1. No, he doesn't. Cruz won by 13 points in Wisconsin. He received way more help than was necessary.

2. That was all secondary anti-_trump candidates in Ohio. Rubio's final average was 4.2% and he received 2.9% (he lost 31% of his votes). Cruz's final average was 17.8% and he received 13.1% (he lost 26% of his votes). Me saying a quarter is an understatement.

3. They do not. Voters in Midwestern states that have individual, clear anti-_trump candidates make up their minds on Election Day in predictable ways. Kasich was never close enough to Cruz to challenge him for the clear anti-_trump position (he was actually stronger in early pre-primary Wisconsin polling), and _trump's lead over Cruz was never large enough for him to actually prevail on Election Day. Cruz has been on track for a narrow, 2-3 point win. If more Kasich supporters cross over to vote for him than is expected due to Kasich explicitly no longer campaigning in the state, Cruz will simply win by more.

Anyway, the way Indiana is going it seems clear to me that _trump needs to play the expectations game, write the state off, and go straight to California. He's played the game terribly by convincing everyone he's favored to win in a state where he doesn't have much of a shot. The media cries of "UPSET" when he loses will be much more damaging than "_trump decides to focus early on California", and the latter will at least help him in California, where he will need to rally and perform very strongly if he wants to win the nomination.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Trump

[Torie]

The odds are 62.37854% that Trump will win Indiana. Time to move on. There is nothing left to say. Man Forumites just love jacking off with these guessing games. I find the exercise masochistic myself.

[IceSpear]

The odds are 62.37854% that Trump will win Indiana. Time to move on. There is nothing left to say. Man Forumites just love jacking off with these guessing games. I find the exercise masochistic myself.

Don't be a hack. They're more like 66.325774366818429174823664716%.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

You Trump supporters (and Democrats rooting for Trump) are pathetic.  After this, the chance of Trump winning Indiana is less than zero!!

[Gass3268]

You Trump supporters (and Democrats rooting for Trump) are pathetic.  After this, the chance of Trump winning Indiana is less than zero!!

Lolno

[Holmes]

The odds are 62.37854% that Trump will win Indiana. Time to move on. There is nothing left to say. Man Forumites just love jacking off with these guessing games. I find the exercise masochistic myself.

You're more into jacking off with young Hudson Valley men.

[Torie]

The odds are 62.37854% that Trump will win Indiana. Time to move on. There is nothing left to say. Man Forumites just love jacking off with these guessing games. I find the exercise masochistic myself.

You're more into jacking off with young Hudson Valley men.

Not exactly. But you are on the right track.

[Classic Conservative]

100% Trump, but it's giving me Iowa flashbacks with Cruz leading a few weeks ago by a lot and then Trump leading, but if you asked me today. I am positive that Trump would win big. Also with the polls were they conducted with only landline or landline and cellular phones. I would think Cruz would do better amongst cell phones as he has a middle aged, wealthier and younger crowd.

[RaphaelDLG]

I would really like to see Trump release a campaign video called "Still T.R.U.M.P" (a parody of "Still D.R.E.") where he and Ben Carson ride around in a low rider insulting the remaining candidates and talking about how amazing Trump's poll numbers are.

[Holmes]

The odds are 62.37854% that Trump will win Indiana. Time to move on. There is nothing left to say. Man Forumites just love jacking off with these guessing games. I find the exercise masochistic myself.

You're more into jacking off with young Hudson Valley men.

Not exactly. But you are on the right track.

I'm trying to keep it PG-13 here, Torie.

[Fuzzy Bear]

The type of voter who wants to vote for Kasich is not going to vote for Cruz.  Trump wins.

They did in Wisconsin.

They aren't voting for Cruz, they are voting for an open convention.

I think you underestimate how unsavory this kind of posturing is to voters.  It contrasts Trump, who plays to win, with two (2) guys who would throw the game to help a weaker team get into the playoffs.  It makes Trump look like more of a frontrunner and a winner without making either Kasich or Cruz look like an even slightly likable underdog.  What a stupid move!

[bigedlb]

The type of voter who wants to vote for Kasich is not going to vote for Cruz.  Trump wins.

They did in Wisconsin.

They aren't voting for Cruz, they are voting for an open convention.

I think you underestimate how unsavory this kind of posturing is to voters.  It contrasts Trump, who plays to win, with two (2) guys who would throw the game to help a weaker team get into the playoffs.  It makes Trump look like more of a frontrunner and a winner without making either Kasich or Cruz look like an even slightly likable underdog.  What a stupid move!

Agree.  "Strategic Voting" is a English thing.   We resent foolishness

[NHI]

Trump by a point or two, but a win is still a win.

[SillyAmerican]

The type of voter who wants to vote for Kasich is not going to vote for Cruz.  Trump wins.

They did in Wisconsin.

They aren't voting for Cruz, they are voting for an open convention.

I think you underestimate how unsavory this kind of posturing is to voters.  It contrasts Trump, who plays to win, with two (2) guys who would throw the game to help a weaker team get into the playoffs.  It makes Trump look like more of a frontrunner and a winner without making either Kasich or Cruz look like an even slightly likable underdog.  What a stupid move!

I agree with Fuzzy: this is exactly the kind of thing that voters are rejecting at this time. Yes, this is both unsavory and a very stupid move...