Today (April 25) is the midpoint between Iowa and the Convention

[Simfan34]

And tomorrow night we will likely have some certainty of who wins the conventions. I would now guess that both Clinton and Trump have reduced their chances of losing the nominations of their Parties to actuarial risk -- basically, beware of stray lightning bolts.

Nah. _trump can win every bound delegate up for grabs tomorrow and still be under 50% of the total. His chances for victory in Indiana are diminishing rapidly, and after that the media will be back to saying his campaign is collapsing instead of Cruz's -- the May states are all pretty favorable for us except WV.

This is pure nonsense. Every Indiana poll shows Trump ahead by a larger margin than previously thought and he is on course to pull of a clean sweep tomorrow which will only boost his chances further. Whence does such a conclusion come?

[Simfan34]

And tomorrow night we will likely have some certainty of who wins the conventions. I would now guess that both Clinton and Trump have reduced their chances of losing the nominations of their Parties to actuarial risk -- basically, beware of stray lightning bolts.

Nah. _trump can win every bound delegate up for grabs tomorrow and still be under 50% of the total. His chances for victory in Indiana are diminishing rapidly, and after that the media will be back to saying his campaign is collapsing instead of Cruz's -- the May states are all pretty favorable for us except WV.

This is pure nonsense. Every Indiana poll shows Trump ahead by a larger margin than previously thought and he is on course to pull of a clean sweep tomorrow which will only boost his chances further. Whence does such a conclusion come?

Y'all aren't looking at the Republican primary as Trump vs. #NeverTrump, and #NeverTrump has more delegates than Trump right now.  With Kasich out of Indiana, there is only one #NeverTrump option, so Cruz is now all but certain to win the state.  If Trump has even 1236 pledged delegates, you bet that the party will do anything and everything to stop him.  I even think that Priebus should say that Trump is not a Republican and will not have the privilege of representing the party, even if he gets the necessary number of delegates.  Essentially kick him out of the party!

Simple delusion. People do not vote in this manner. Kasich will not be going to zero. Trump appears likely to win Indiana according to all the polls and I can't see why they'd all be wrong now.