Has Trump essentially won the Republican nomination?

[Nathan Towne]

Has Trump all but won the nomination for the Republican Party? I think that he is at least in very good position. He currently stands at 846 delegates and is leading in all five states voting tomorrow according to the polling data. of those five states, three of the elections are winner-take-all elections (Delaware, Maryland and Pennsylvania) while the winner will take most of the delegates in Connecticut and the delegates are rewarded proportionally in Rhode Island. If he wins all five states, which it appears that he will, he will take delegates as follows:

Delaware: 16
Maryland: 38
Pennsylvania: 17 initially (54 more delegates at the convention as they will not move to block him if he is in position to win in my opinion)

That right there is 971 delegates, not including those which he will win in Connecticut (winner-take-most) and in Rhode Island (Proportional)

Indiana follows by voting on the 3rd of May, where Trump is leading by about five points currently and the state awards all of its 57 delegates to the winner. If Trump can carry Indiana, that is 1028 delegates not including those from Connecticut and Rhode Island.

On the last day of the primaries, both New jersey and California vote, two states where Trump is now leading by decisive margins and both states are winner-take-all states. If he takes both states, regardless of what any other states do (including Connecticut and Rhode Island), that is 1251 delegates and the nomination.

After everything that has happened to this point, it seems hard to believe that he couldn't be stopped, but it is appearing to me that he has all but done it. There are still the 54 delegates in Pennsylvania that aren't absolutely certain if he wins the state and he could still lose Indiana, but with there being plenty of other delegates available beyond those states, it is looking pretty close to sealed up at this point, in my opinion.

[This account no longer in use.]

Yes; the Cruz-Kasich coalition is the final straw.

[Vosem]

He's improved his position a bit, but he's still basically losing.

[swf541]

Yes; the Cruz-Kasich coalition is the final straw.

Agreed

[World politics is up Schmitt creek]

Considering the Cruz-Kasich pact appears to have (on Kasich's end) lasted like one day, yes, probably.

[Nathan Towne]

He's improved his position a bit, but he's still basically losing.

How so?

[The Other Castro]

He's better positioned now, but we still won't know until after Indiana and California.

[Fargobison]

He needs to win Indiana, otherwise it moves to CA where he is strongly favored but I guess anything could happen with Trump between then and now.

[Torie]

Not quite yet. Be patient.

[wolfsblood07]

He's improved his position a bit, but he's still basically losing.

Losing the general election?   I don't think the GOP will want to deny him the nomination on the convention floor.  We should have known after Iowa, certainly after SEC Super Tuesday.  Trump won this.  The first time a major party has been successfully infiltrated by an outsider in a hostile takeover!  This is only going to get more exciting.

[Likely Voter]

He's better positioned now, but we still won't know until after Indiana and California.

Certainly Trump's path to 1237 seems to pbe a function of how many CDs he wins in IN and CA. I don't think it is a given he will pass 1237.  However, he has a very good chance of getting close enough to win, assuming the bulk of the PA unbound vote with the winner of PA.

[Vosem]

He's improved his position a bit, but he's still basically losing.

How so?

He's still under 50% of total first-ballot delegates, whether you count just pledged or include the unpledged that have also made an endorsement. He cannot exceed 50% on the first number tomorrow, and it's unlikely for him to exceed it on the second. Even if he does, he's on track to do poorly in most of the May primaries (except West Virginia), and have negative momentum going in to California, where he needs to do well.

If he can't get to 50%+1 on the first ballot -- and odds are he can't -- then the whole thing falls apart and he loses. It was always a longshot, tbh.

[Torie]

He's better positioned now, but we still won't know until after Indiana and California.

Certainly Trump's path to 1237 seems to pbe a function of how many CDs he wins in IN and CA. I don't think it is a given he will pass 1237.  However, he has a very good chance of getting close enough to win, assuming the bulk of the PA unbound vote with the winner of PA.

The dicey bit, is that in places like PA, Cruz might do worse than Trump in the General. So to entice the PA delegates to give Trump the finger, many of them want to see the path to getting someone as the nominee who is neither of the two. Cruz is just toxic in the Northeast.

[The Other Castro]

He's better positioned now, but we still won't know until after Indiana and California.

Certainly Trump's path to 1237 seems to pbe a function of how many CDs he wins in IN and CA. I don't think it is a given he will pass 1237.  However, he has a very good chance of getting close enough to win, assuming the bulk of the PA unbound vote with the winner of PA.

If he sweeps the Northeast (and DE and MD) tomorrow as the polls suggest, wins WV and NJ as expected, assumes the PA unbound delegates aren't lying, and wins IN and CA (with at least 100 delegates in CA), it would be very difficult to stop him. The big unknown for me is what winning percentages correspond to particular delegate allocations (how big of a win does he need to get 100, 120, 140, etc, number of delegates there).

[Vosem]

He's better positioned now, but we still won't know until after Indiana and California.

Certainly Trump's path to 1237 seems to pbe a function of how many CDs he wins in IN and CA. I don't think it is a given he will pass 1237.  However, he has a very good chance of getting close enough to win, assuming the bulk of the PA unbound vote with the winner of PA.

The dicey bit, is that in places like PA, Cruz might do worse than Trump in the General. So to entice the PA delegates to give Trump the finger, many of them want to see the path to getting someone as the nominee who is neither of the two. Cruz is just toxic in the Northeast.

[IceSpear]

He's improved his position a bit, but he's still basically losing.

How so?

Vosem is the #NeverTrump version of Baghdad Bob.

But the answer is no. There's still a lot of time until CA votes and a lot can happen. However, it's looking more and more likely by the day.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

No, it's well under 50% that he will be the nominee.  He would have to have landslide victories in Indiana and California, and the Cruz-Kasich pact will stop that.  Close wins in both of those states wouldn't get him to 1237.  And, there is no way he gets much more than the 17 out of PA, because he is REALLY BAD with delegate ground game.  The same thing could really cost him in West Virginia.

[The Other Castro]

No, it's well under 50% that he will be the nominee.  He would have to have landslide victories in Indiana and California, and the Cruz-Kasich pact will stop that.  Close wins in both of those states wouldn't get him to 1237.  And, there is no way he gets much more than the 17 out of PA, because he is REALLY BAD with delegate ground game.  The same thing could really cost him in West Virginia.

It's not as simple as that. The winner of IN, even with a slim victory, will win the vast majority of delegates there (30 delegates are WTA for the state winner). He'll also still get somewhere in the high 20s for delegates in WV. At least 17 delegates in PA is a given, and it really seems Trump is bringing his act together there delegate ground game wise. He has named delegates in his slate for almost every district, and the ones he named that don't explicitly support him say they will vote for the district winner (in districts which he will probably win). At this point he could win over 30 unbound delegates from PA. CA is also partially WTA by CD, so slight victories could also result in big delegate hauls.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

No, it's well under 50% that he will be the nominee.  He would have to have landslide victories in Indiana and California, and the Cruz-Kasich pact will stop that.  Close wins in both of those states wouldn't get him to 1237.  And, there is no way he gets much more than the 17 out of PA, because he is REALLY BAD with delegate ground game.  The same thing could really cost him in West Virginia.

It's not as simple as that. The winner of IN, even with a slim victory, will win the vast majority of delegates there (30 delegates are WTA for the state winner). He'll also still get somewhere in the high 20s for delegates in WV. At least 17 delegates in PA is a given, and it really seems Trump is bringing his act together there delegate ground game wise. He has named delegates in his slate for almost every district, and the ones he named that don't explicitly support him say they will vote for the district winner (in districts which he will probably win). At this point he could win over 30 unbound delegates from PA. CA is also partially WTA by CD, so slight victories could also result in big delegate hauls.

Even if you give him solid victories in Indiana and California, he is still about 40 delegates shy of 1237.  The chances of him reaching 1237 pledged delegates before the convention is virtually nonexistent.

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/can-you-get-trump-to-1237/

[Gass3268]

It's a lock. Cruz should just pack it up and go home.

[The Other Castro]

No, it's well under 50% that he will be the nominee.  He would have to have landslide victories in Indiana and California, and the Cruz-Kasich pact will stop that.  Close wins in both of those states wouldn't get him to 1237.  And, there is no way he gets much more than the 17 out of PA, because he is REALLY BAD with delegate ground game.  The same thing could really cost him in West Virginia.

It's not as simple as that. The winner of IN, even with a slim victory, will win the vast majority of delegates there (30 delegates are WTA for the state winner). He'll also still get somewhere in the high 20s for delegates in WV. At least 17 delegates in PA is a given, and it really seems Trump is bringing his act together there delegate ground game wise. He has named delegates in his slate for almost every district, and the ones he named that don't explicitly support him say they will vote for the district winner (in districts which he will probably win). At this point he could win over 30 unbound delegates from PA. CA is also partially WTA by CD, so slight victories could also result in big delegate hauls.

Even if you give him solid victories in Indiana and California, he is still about 40 delegates shy of 1237.  The chances of him reaching 1237 pledged delegates before the convention is virtually nonexistent.

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/can-you-get-trump-to-1237/

When you factor in a near sweep on Tuesday, he's only about 30 delegates shy. If the unbound delegates in PA vote as they say they will, and Trump's margins by CD correspond to which delegates are elected, Trump should be able to get close to the 30 needed there (not even taking into account the idea that he could win the loyalties of some other uncommitted delegates out there besides PA).

[100% pro-life no matter what]

No, it's well under 50% that he will be the nominee.  He would have to have landslide victories in Indiana and California, and the Cruz-Kasich pact will stop that.  Close wins in both of those states wouldn't get him to 1237.  And, there is no way he gets much more than the 17 out of PA, because he is REALLY BAD with delegate ground game.  The same thing could really cost him in West Virginia.

It's not as simple as that. The winner of IN, even with a slim victory, will win the vast majority of delegates there (30 delegates are WTA for the state winner). He'll also still get somewhere in the high 20s for delegates in WV. At least 17 delegates in PA is a given, and it really seems Trump is bringing his act together there delegate ground game wise. He has named delegates in his slate for almost every district, and the ones he named that don't explicitly support him say they will vote for the district winner (in districts which he will probably win). At this point he could win over 30 unbound delegates from PA. CA is also partially WTA by CD, so slight victories could also result in big delegate hauls.

Even if you give him solid victories in Indiana and California, he is still about 40 delegates shy of 1237.  The chances of him reaching 1237 pledged delegates before the convention is virtually nonexistent.

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/can-you-get-trump-to-1237/

When you factor in a near sweep on Tuesday, he's only about 30 delegates shy. If the unbound delegates in PA vote as they say they will, and Trump's margins by CD correspond to which delegates are elected, Trump should be able to get close to the 30 needed there (not even taking into account the idea that he could win the loyalties of some other uncommitted delegates out there besides PA).

I have no reason to believe that almost every PA uncommitted delegate will be Cruz/anti-Trump, just like they have been elsewhere.  I bet most of those "I will vote for the winner of my district" delegates are just saying that, but are really anti-Trump.  And, Trump supporters would be the type to vote for Trump and then ignore the delegate stuff.

[Mehmentum]

Remember when everyone was freaking out after Cruz won Wisconsin?  At that point, most people thought Trump would get 85 delegates out of New York.  Trump ended up getting 90.  Is 5 delegates really that much of a game changer?  

Its not.  People are just over-reacting as usual to every single event in this race.  Just like how you guys over-reacted to Sanders winning New Hampshire and Michigan, just like how people over-reacted to Cruz winning Maine and Kansas, and then when Cruz won Wisconsin.

I would say Trump getting to 1237 is about 50/50, and it has been for a while now.  There's a decent chance that if Trump falls short, he can get some unpledged delegates to support him, so I'd put his overall chances of winning the nomination at around 70%.

So yes, Trump is favored to win.  No, he hasn't essentially won the nomination.

[Gass3268]

No, it's well under 50% that he will be the nominee.  He would have to have landslide victories in Indiana and California, and the Cruz-Kasich pact will stop that.  Close wins in both of those states wouldn't get him to 1237.  And, there is no way he gets much more than the 17 out of PA, because he is REALLY BAD with delegate ground game.  The same thing could really cost him in West Virginia.

It's not as simple as that. The winner of IN, even with a slim victory, will win the vast majority of delegates there (30 delegates are WTA for the state winner). He'll also still get somewhere in the high 20s for delegates in WV. At least 17 delegates in PA is a given, and it really seems Trump is bringing his act together there delegate ground game wise. He has named delegates in his slate for almost every district, and the ones he named that don't explicitly support him say they will vote for the district winner (in districts which he will probably win). At this point he could win over 30 unbound delegates from PA. CA is also partially WTA by CD, so slight victories could also result in big delegate hauls.

Even if you give him solid victories in Indiana and California, he is still about 40 delegates shy of 1237.  The chances of him reaching 1237 pledged delegates before the convention is virtually nonexistent.

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/can-you-get-trump-to-1237/

When you factor in a near sweep on Tuesday, he's only about 30 delegates shy. If the unbound delegates in PA vote as they say they will, and Trump's margins by CD correspond to which delegates are elected, Trump should be able to get close to the 30 needed there (not even taking into account the idea that he could win the loyalties of some other uncommitted delegates out there besides PA).

I have no reason to believe that almost every PA uncommitted delegate will be Cruz/anti-Trump, just like they have been elsewhere. I bet most of those "I will vote for the winner of my district" delegates are just saying that, but are really anti-Trump.  And, Trump supporters would be the type to vote for Trump and then ignore the delegate stuff.

Lolno! It's amazing how Lyin' Ted's supporters support lying to the voters. I guess they get that from Calgary Cruz.

[NHI]

Yes; the Cruz-Kasich coalition is the final straw.