Has Trump essentially won the Republican nomination?

[Nathan Towne]

Has Trump all but won the nomination for the Republican Party? I think that he is at least in very good position. He currently stands at 846 delegates and is leading in all five states voting tomorrow according to the polling data. of those five states, three of the elections are winner-take-all elections (Delaware, Maryland and Pennsylvania) while the winner will take most of the delegates in Connecticut and the delegates are rewarded proportionally in Rhode Island. If he wins all five states, which it appears that he will, he will take delegates as follows:

Delaware: 16
Maryland: 38
Pennsylvania: 17 initially (54 more delegates at the convention as they will not move to block him if he is in position to win in my opinion)

That right there is 971 delegates, not including those which he will win in Connecticut (winner-take-most) and in Rhode Island (Proportional)

Indiana follows by voting on the 3rd of May, where Trump is leading by about five points currently and the state awards all of its 57 delegates to the winner. If Trump can carry Indiana, that is 1028 delegates not including those from Connecticut and Rhode Island.

On the last day of the primaries, both New jersey and California vote, two states where Trump is now leading by decisive margins and both states are winner-take-all states. If he takes both states, regardless of what any other states do (including Connecticut and Rhode Island), that is 1251 delegates and the nomination.

After everything that has happened to this point, it seems hard to believe that he couldn't be stopped, but it is appearing to me that he has all but done it. There are still the 54 delegates in Pennsylvania that aren't absolutely certain if he wins the state and he could still lose Indiana, but with there being plenty of other delegates available beyond those states, it is looking pretty close to sealed up at this point, in my opinion.

[Nathan Towne]

He's improved his position a bit, but he's still basically losing.

How so?

[Nathan Towne]

On the last day of the primaries, both New jersey and California vote, two states where Trump is now leading by decisive margins and both states are winner-take-all states.

California isn't winner-take-all.

California 3 10 159 172 0 172 Primary (closed) Winner-take-all Winner-take-all Jun 7 Slate Jun 7 Slate N/A

[Nathan Towne]

Well, Trump has accomplished the first of the three requisite steps in winning the nomination and he did so decisively last night. He took over 50% of the vote in all five states, losing only six counties in Connecticut and a single county in Rhode Island. Being that Trump crossed the 50% vote threshold in Connecticut, he won all of that state's delegates as well.

Trump took every county in the winner-take-all states of Pennsylvania, Maryland and Delaware. Every county! That is a resounding victory for Trump.

[Nathan Towne]

Trump will be the nominee.

It looks all but over to me. He now needs to go win Indiana on May 3rd, which is the biggest challenge remaining for him, but after that it will all come down to the winner-take-all votes in California and New Jersey on the 7th of June for the nomination. I can't see enough of the reserved Penn. delegates breaking from Trump after he won every county in the entire state last night.

I would score Trump as 95%+ to be the nominee of the party at this point.

[Nathan Towne]

Trump will be the nominee.

Are you content with Trump as the nominee of the party?