MO-2nd

[YPestis25]

Mainly posting because Missouri might have it's first vaguely competitive district since 2010. So after redistricting in 2010, the Missouri 2nd district gave up much of the very conservative St. Charles County, and is now mainly limited to St. Louis county, as well as bits of St. Charles, Jefferson, and according to ballotpedia Franklin and Warren counties.

Old District
 

New District

This year it looks like Democratic State Representative Bill Otto will go up against incumbent Republican Ann Wagner. Interestingly, despite Wagner blowing her opponent out of the water in 2014, the total Democratic and Republican vote in the primary in 2014 was almost the same. 

I highly doubt this will be competitive come November, but given that St. Louis and St. Charles counties were some of Trump's weakest wins in Missouri, and with his nomination looking increasingly likely, could we see the 2nd District become competitive if 2016 turns into a blowout for the Democrats?

[publicunofficial]

R+8 is a pretty steep climb, and Missouri is largely becoming more and more of a Southern state voting wise. Plus, Wagner seems like a pretty strong incumbent.

Also, even if Trump is the nominee and he creates a disaster down-ballot; the St. Louis suburbs is one of the areas in the United States where I suspect Trump will do fantastic in.

There's a reason everyone is rating this as Safe R. Except Red Racing Horses, who for some reason have it as Likely R, but their ratings are total nonsense.

[user12345]

Yeah Wagner is gonna win yuge.

[YPestis25]

Yeah, y'all are probably right. I think I let my wishful thinking get a bit ahead of itself there. Interestingly, despite doing so poorly in St. Louis and St. Charles counties, he beat Cruz by almost 11 in Jefferson. Not sure if that means much, since most of Jefferson is in districts 3 and 8 which are Safe Republican no matter how you look at it. I guess a guy can dream.

[user12345]

Yeah, y'all are probably right. I think I let my wishful thinking get a bit ahead of itself there. Interestingly, despite doing so poorly in St. Louis and St. Charles counties, he beat Cruz by almost 11 in Jefferson. Not sure if that means much, since most of Jefferson is in districts 3 and 8 which are Safe Republican no matter how you look at it. I guess a guy can dream.

If Wagner were to run for a different office this year and Trump was the nominee maybe it would be slightly competitive but it would for sure still be at least lean R.

[PAK Man]

It's still Safe R, but it's nice to see a non-Some Dude taking on Wagner.

[Ebsy]

MO-2 will not be competitive at all. Wagner will cruise to reelection without even attempting to campaign.