Will Hillary Clinton clinch the nomination tomorrow?

[Progressive]

If a number of super delegates boost her tomorrow she can clinch at night after the results are in

[NHI]

If she does, then cue the Bernie whining.

[Antonio the Sixth]

My criterion for "clinching the nomination" is winning a majority of the pledged delegates, so if my understanding of the delegate math is correct, probably not.

[TomC]

Clinton will never truly clinch it; it's always possible Superman can fly around the globe, turn back time, make the poor vote, make the South not count, and make caucuses add the raw votes they would have gotten were they in reality primaries.

Edit to add: and make the super delegates not count, but still keep the threshold 50% +1 of the total that includes the super delegates.

[Ronnie]

In the technical sense, no.  Otherwise, she's been the de facto presumptive nominee for a while now.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

My criterion for "clinching the nomination" is winning a majority of the pledged delegates, so if my understanding of the delegate math is correct, probably not.

Yeah, not happening until June 7th at the earliest.

[Lyin' Steve]

No, there's only 384 delegates available tomorrow and she's 439 away from victory.
It's pretty difficult for her to clinch before California.  Here are some reasonable delegate estimates for the remaining states:

Delaware:  13/21 => 426
Connecticut:  30/55 => 396
Rhode Island:  12/24 => 384
Maryland:  60/95 => 324
Pennsylvania:  113/195 => 209
Indiana:  46/83 => 163
West Virginia:  12/29 => 151
Kentucky:  28/55 => 123
Oregon: 21/61 => 102
Montana:  8/21 => 94
New Mexico:  21/34 => 73
South Dakota:  7/20 => 66
New Jersey:  70/126 => -4
California:  270/475 => -274
DC:  15/20 => -289

Without superdelegates, she's still 227 away from an outright win, so we'll almost certainly end up in the scenario where Jeff Weaver claims she hasn't really won and spends the summer calling superdelegates and trying to convince them to switch to Bernie.

Of course, these numbers could close up a little quicker as there are still 164 superdelegates that haven't endorsed yet, but unless she gets 100+ endorsements we'll still be waiting until June 7 for Clinch-ton.  A more likely scenario for an early clinch is that Bernie's support also starts to collapse as it becomes increasingly evident that his campaign is non-viable and his entire operation becomes spiteful and negative, turning people off.  We're already starting to see a lot of that with the swing towards Clinton in the last couple weeks.  In that case Clinton might only be 70-ish away from the nomination after Oregon and she gets enough superdelegates to put him out of his misery.

2026 are needed for a majority of pledged delegates, meaning she'd need 357 fewer delegates but also lose her 516 superdelegates, so if you're not counting superdelegates add 159 to all her margins above.  After Oregon, Bernie will be in a place where he needs 2/3rds of the remaining delegates to break even.

I'm forgetting Guam and the Virgin Islands here... who care

[Xing]

^^ You also forgot North Dakota. How dare you.

Short of a 70-30 win in PA, an 80-20 win in MD, and a 65-35 win in IN/KY/WV, Hillary's not clinching the nomination before California. Anyone with common sense can see that she's effectively won, though, and will clinch it on June 7th.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

My criterion for "clinching the nomination" is winning a majority of the pledged delegates, so if my understanding of the delegate math is correct, probably not.

[IceSpear]

No, because she won't have the majority of pledged delegates.

If you mean de facto clinched it, she already did a month or two ago.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Sanders is all but done and Clinton should focus on GE and Sanders need to help elect Senate Dems.

[HAnnA MArin County]

She already clinched it last month. Sanders is just now running a selfish campaign and doing what he does best: selling snake oil and deceiving his supporters into thinking that they actually have a chance, which he has every right to do, even though he's not about party unity whatsoever, but Hillary has a right to ignore him as well and focus her attacks on Trump or Cruz or whatever bozo the Republicans nominate at Cleveland, same as how Obama shifted to general election mode around this same time last year when the remaining primary states were voting.

[SillyAmerican]

No, because she won't have the majority of pledged delegates.

If you mean de facto clinched it, she already did a month or two ago.

Agreed.

[°Leprechaun]

She probably won't clinch the nomination until June, but any victory will get her a little closer. Even with a net gain of 30-40 delegates things won't change much. Today's states are not Sanders best. A narrow victory in California would not clinch it for Sanders. No matter what happens the fact is that Sanders is probably going to need a big win in California, which doesn't seem likely. We'll know more as we get more California polls. Right now it looks close, so even if Sanders does win California it won't be enough. I don't think Clinton will get a big enough net gain tonight to change things all that much, but winning all five states could make it that much harder for Sanders. Mathematically I don't expect her to get to a majority of pledged delegates before June, but it will be harder and harder with each primary to make a reasonable case for Sanders. If he doesn't get a majority of pledged delegates he probably won't get the nomination, however much he may try to swing super delegates. I can't imagine him convincing more that a majority of super delegates to switch without a majority of pledged delegates. He is falling behind and his odds are shrinking with each day.

[Wells]

Yes. Bernie Sanders is a disaster and very easy to beat - even by Hillary Clinton! Sad!

[Suburbia]

No.

[Likely Voter]

Obviously not, but the media usually report her delegate total with supers and after tonight she will have over 2100 and Sanders will have around 1400. The media will start treating Clinton as the 'almost certain' nominee. And if she rolls out more supers, she could get to 2383 before CA, maybe as early as May 17 after KY and OR, and then they will declare her the 'presumptive nominee'. It will drive Team Bernie crazy of course, but the media are counting the supers even though they don't vote until the convention.

[Progressive]

I can't see him continuing seriously if he gets routed today, just saying...

[Mehmentum]

Yeah, the way proportional primaries work, its very difficult for an opposed candidate to clinch the nomination until very late in the cycle.

[indietraveler]

No, she won't, but I'm pretty sure some of Bernie's supporters excuses will become more ridiculous along with theories of how he is still in this. I supported Sanders this year, but some of his followers are getting out of hand.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Her standing with Blacks is great when she won MD and along with Latinos make up the core of Dems. Sanders isn't winning.

[HAnnA MArin County]

Her standing with Blacks is great when she won MD and along with Latinos make up the core of Dems. Sanders isn't winning.

Thank you. It speaks volumes to a Democratic candidate's potential of winning a diverse electorate when all he wins are white people and college kiddies. The Vermont candidate is winning Vermont's demographics nationwide, but as anyone will tell you, Vermont is not representative of the country as a whole. Democrats must win big among women, racial and religious minorities, and the LGBTQIA community. That's not to say that white voters' and younger voices do not matter to our party, because they do as a big-tent party, but we have to have a candidate who can appeal more to a broader more diverse coalition of voters if we seek to stand a chance against the angry old WASP heterosexual male party.

[MisSkeptic]

Her standing with Blacks is great when she won MD and along with Latinos make up the core of Dems. Sanders isn't winning.

Thank you. It speaks volumes to a Democratic candidate's potential of winning a diverse electorate when all he wins are white people and college kiddies. The Vermont candidate is winning Vermont's demographics nationwide, but as anyone will tell you, Vermont is not representative of the country as a whole. Democrats must win big among women, racial and religious minorities, and the LGBTQIA community. That's not to say that white voters' and younger voices do not matter to our party, because they do as a big-tent party, but we have to have a candidate who can appeal more to a broader more diverse coalition of voters if we seek to stand a chance against the angry old WASP heterosexual male party.

Yes, I agree. If it came down to Hillary vs. Trump obviously she would have a strong advantage over Trump because of her support from diverse voters.