Democratic Acela Corridor Tuesday results thread (all polls close at 8pm ET)

[Eraserhead]

I wish they'd release more info from the CT exit poll since that's the only state that they did an exit for that might be close.

[IceSpear]

Oh yeah, since I don't think anyone mentioned this yet...that black number in MD could potentially cause an upset in the Senate primary.

[dspNY]

Oh yeah, since I don't think anyone mentioned this yet...that black number in MD could potentially cause an upset in the Senate primary.

Edwards has a very good chance, yes

[Eraserhead]

Oh yeah, since I don't think anyone mentioned this yet...that black number in MD could potentially cause an upset in the Senate primary.

That actually was mentioned a couple of times but yeah, possibly.

[Eraserhead]

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[Mr. Morden]

[Baki]

CNN saying record turnout in early voting in Maryland.

[Adam Griffin]

Maryland Dem electorate:
43% white
46% black
6% Latino/Hispanic
2% Asian

CT Dem electorate:
76% white
14% black
7% Latino/Hispanic
1% Asian

PA Dem electorate:
White 71%
Black 17%
Latino/Hispanic 9%
Asian 1%

For the record, the 2012 Democratic electorate in the general election was:

MD: 46% White, 39% Black, 9% Latino, 6% Other
CT: 60% White, 19% Black, 11% Latino, 10% Other
PA: 70% White, 25% Black, 5% Other

Going to be a blackbath in MD; much blacker than even the 2012 presidential. CT & PA are substantially whiter and/or less black than the general, though.

[Fusionmunster]

Maryland Dem electorate:
43% white
46% black
6% Latino/Hispanic
2% Asian

CT Dem electorate:
76% white
14% black
7% Latino/Hispanic
1% Asian

PA Dem electorate:
White 71%
Black 17%
Latino/Hispanic 9%
Asian 1%

For the record, the 2012 Democratic electorate in the general election was:

MD: 46% White, 39% Black, 9% Latino, 6% Other
CT: 60% White, 19% Black, 11% Latino, 10% Other
PA: 70% White, 25% Black, 5% Other

Going to be a blackbath in MD; much blacker than even the 2012 presidential. CT & PA are substantially whiter than the general, though.

Less white than the 2008 dem primary electorate though.

[Mr. Morden]

http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/live-democratic-exit-poll-analysis/story?id=38655223

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[Mr. Morden]

For the record, the 2012 Democratic electorate in the general election was:

MD: 46% White, 39% Black, 9% Latino, 6% Other
CT: 60% White, 19% Black, 11% Latino, 10% Other
PA: 70% White, 25% Black, 5% Other

Going to be a blackbath in MD; much blacker than even the 2012 presidential. CT & PA are substantially whiter and/or less black than the general, though.

Wouldn't you expect a Democratic primary to be blacker than a general election, since blacks go overwhelmingly for the Dems?

[Mehmentum]

For reference:

It was 38-59 in favor of Sanders in Wisconsin. 52-45 in favor of Clinton in New York.  So this result would indicate a close race.

[Fusionmunster]

For reference:

It was 38-59 in favor of Sanders in Wisconsin. 52-45 in favor of Clinton in New York.  So this result would indicate a close race.

Especially when you give or take a few points for the inevitable adjustment.

[Adam Griffin]

For the record, the 2012 Democratic electorate in the general election was:

MD: 46% White, 39% Black, 9% Latino, 6% Other
CT: 60% White, 19% Black, 11% Latino, 10% Other
PA: 70% White, 25% Black, 5% Other

Going to be a blackbath in MD; much blacker than even the 2012 presidential. CT & PA are substantially whiter and/or less black than the general, though.

Wouldn't you expect a Democratic primary to be blacker than a general election, since blacks go overwhelmingly for the Dems?

Not necessarily. There are plenty of states where the primary has been less black than the general, especially from 2008 onward; anecdotally, it seems more to be the rule than the exception. It's quite common in the South, though not universal.

[Adam Griffin]

For the record, the 2012 Democratic electorate in the general election was:

MD: 46% White, 39% Black, 9% Latino, 6% Other
CT: 60% White, 19% Black, 11% Latino, 10% Other
PA: 70% White, 25% Black, 5% Other

Going to be a blackbath in MD; much blacker than even the 2012 presidential. CT & PA are substantially whiter and/or less black than the general, though.

Wouldn't you expect a Democratic primary to be blacker than a general election, since blacks go overwhelmingly for the Dems?

Not necessarily. There are plenty of states where the primary has been less black than the general, especially from 2008 onward; anecdotally, it seems more to be the rule than the exception. It's quite common in the South, though not universal.

Note: I'd expect this to not apply in states where state/local primaries are held on the same day as presidential primaries. Especially in conservative-leaning states and/or places with large swaths of R-dominated territory, you'll likely have many white Democrats crossing over to vote in the Republican primary due to that being the de-facto general election at the local level.

[Eraserhead]

It looks like Connecticut could end up being pretty interesting.

[Wells]

It looks like Connecticut could end up being pretty interesting.

Or the exit poll could be completely wrong again.

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

Remember guys, NY was supposed to be 51% Hillary 49% Bernie!

[yankeesfan]

@ryangrim
Apply grains of salt, but here they are:

CT
Clinton 51%
Sanders 47%

MD
Clinton 64%
Sanders 34%

PA
Clinton 56%
Sanders 44%

[Eraserhead]

Remember guys, NY was supposed to be 51% Hillary 49% Bernie!

52%-48% actually.

[Landslide Lyndon]

@ryangrim
Apply grains of salt, but here they are:

CT
Clinton 51%
Sanders 47%

MD
Clinton 64%
Sanders 34%

PA
Clinton 56%
Sanders 44%

Let's just say that if these prove to be the final results nobody will be surprised.

[Eraserhead]

@ryangrim
Apply grains of salt, but here they are:

CT
Clinton 51%
Sanders 47%

MD
Clinton 64%
Sanders 34%

PA
Clinton 56%
Sanders 44%

Pretty much as expected.

[Fusionmunster]

@ryangrim
Apply grains of salt, but here they are:

CT
Clinton 51%
Sanders 47%

MD
Clinton 64%
Sanders 34%

PA
Clinton 56%
Sanders 44%

I dont trust it, not after NY and WI.

[Hydera]

I can't wait for Bernie supporters to hang on to Rhode Island like a head horse like they did with Oklahoma and Michigan.

[Eraserhead]

@ryangrim
Apply grains of salt, but here they are:

CT
Clinton 51%
Sanders 47%

MD
Clinton 64%
Sanders 34%

PA
Clinton 56%
Sanders 44%

I dont trust it, not after NY and WI.

Were the WI exits that bad? They underestimated Sanders a bit but they weren't too far off IIRC.