Democratic Acela Corridor Tuesday results thread (all polls close at 8pm ET)

[Fusionmunster]

I know some of you guys hate these anecdotal turnout reports but it keeps up political junkies with too much time on our hands busy during these long hour waiting for the polls to close.

[Fusionmunster]

Turnout is very high in Pittsburgh.

Good for Clinton

More good news for her, extremely high turnout in Hanover.

Really? I was assuming that York and Lancaster counties would be good areas for Sanders.

Benchmark says Hannover has a high median age, i.e: old people.

[Fusionmunster]

As expected, long lines in Providence. Whether its because of turnout or the closing of polling stations still remains to be seen.

[Fusionmunster]

Kristen Welker at NBC News tweets:

"A top Dem official tells me turnout is strong in Philadelphia, particularly in areas w/large African-American populations."

Dan Merica at CNN tweets:

"Clinton's top aides are confident they will win at least four of five states tonight, eyeing RI as Sanders' best chance."

Their internals must be showing some good numbers for them. The Clinton camp have been the first group to downplay expectations.

[Fusionmunster]

Yeah, I remember Mook downplaying Michigan after Super Tuesday and thinking there was no way Clinton could lose there.

March 15th they were saying they might only win 2 states. And with NY they were adamant about tempering expectations for a single digit win. Hillarys camp isn't the type to play up expectations unless their super confident.

[Fusionmunster]

Benchmark posted a link with some info on Connecticut turnout if anyone's interested.

http://trumbull.dailyvoice.com/news/midday-voter-turnout-for-primary-already-tops-2012-in-connecticut/655592/

Apparently Fairfield County turnout is very high which is good news for Hillary.

[Fusionmunster]

Well, I used a bunch of free phone call apps to phonebank for Hillary in Rhode Island today. The 93-year-old woman was my favourite. Also a mom who I laughed with about Donald Trump. It's kind of fun!

I haven't been able to work up the nerve to phone bank. People say its actually a good way to tackle anxiety when talking to strangers but god forbid I screw up and push an undecided voter to the other side.

[Fusionmunster]

Anybody know when exit polls start trickling out tonight?

[Fusionmunster]

For Pennsylvania:
The Democratic Campaign..
71% energized the party
24% divided the party

Broken down by candidate:
Clinton:
82% energized the party
12% divided the party

Sanders:
58% energized the party
37% divided the party

[Fusionmunster]

65% 45 or over in Maryland.
67% 45 or over in Connecticut.

Big increase in olds in Maryland since '08. Connecticut is essentially unchanged.

CNNs exit poll from 2008 is showing Connecticut as 57% over 45.

[Fusionmunster]

65% 45 or over in Maryland.
67% 45 or over in Connecticut.

Big increase in olds in Maryland since '08. Connecticut is essentially unchanged.

CNNs exit poll from 2008 is showing Connecticut as 57% over 45.

I'm seeing it at 66% right here.

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/state/#val=CT

My bad, I cant do math.

[Fusionmunster]

For Pennsylvania:
The Democratic Campaign..
71% energized the party
24% divided the party

Broken down by candidate:
Clinton:
82% energized the party
12% divided the party

Sanders:
58% energized the party
37% divided the party

Implying 54% Clinton, 46% Sanders

Morden and myself did some similar math to that and got 55-45 in NY, then it somehow came out as 52-48. So I'm not sure if this works.

Yeah, best to ignore questions that arent directly asking about demographics or policies.

[Fusionmunster]

Benchmark saying exit polls are showing a +22 point win for Hillary right now.
Edit:
Oh, never mind.  They cant do math either.

[Fusionmunster]

Maryland Dem electorate:
43% white
46% black
6% Latino/Hispanic
2% Asian

CT Dem electorate:
76% white
14% black
7% Latino/Hispanic
1% Asian

PA Dem electorate:
White 71%
Black 17%
Latino/Hispanic 9%
Asian 1%

For the record, the 2012 Democratic electorate in the general election was:

MD: 46% White, 39% Black, 9% Latino, 6% Other
CT: 60% White, 19% Black, 11% Latino, 10% Other
PA: 70% White, 25% Black, 5% Other

Going to be a blackbath in MD; much blacker than even the 2012 presidential. CT & PA are substantially whiter than the general, though.

Less white than the 2008 dem primary electorate though.

[Fusionmunster]

For reference:

It was 38-59 in favor of Sanders in Wisconsin. 52-45 in favor of Clinton in New York.  So this result would indicate a close race.

Especially when you give or take a few points for the inevitable adjustment.

[Fusionmunster]

@ryangrim
Apply grains of salt, but here they are:

CT
Clinton 51%
Sanders 47%

MD
Clinton 64%
Sanders 34%

PA
Clinton 56%
Sanders 44%

I dont trust it, not after NY and WI.

[Fusionmunster]

@ryangrim
Apply grains of salt, but here they are:

CT
Clinton 51%
Sanders 47%

MD
Clinton 64%
Sanders 34%

PA
Clinton 56%
Sanders 44%

I dont trust it, not after NY and WI.

Were the WI exits that bad? They underestimated Sanders a bit but they weren't too far off IIRC.

They werent bad per se, but the exits showed a 7 point win and it ended up being a 13 point win.

[Fusionmunster]

Anyone else thinking Sanders is gonna win RI?

I'd like to see what happens when Providence comes in but more than likely, looking like a Sanders win I think.

[Fusionmunster]

Everyone on this thread must tune into TYT right now. It is golden.

I guess Cenk forgot about the blue dogs.

[Fusionmunster]

Hillary just took back the lead in CT.  NYC suburbs coming in hard for her.

[Fusionmunster]

Cenk is already talking about primarying Hillary in 2020.  Ana is basically saying she'll vote for Trump as a big screw you...these people are deranged.

[Fusionmunster]

CT called for Clinton

I was hoping for a sweep but 4/5 aint bad.