Republican Acela Corridor Tuesday results thread (all polls close at 8pm ET)
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Author Topic: Republican Acela Corridor Tuesday results thread (all polls close at 8pm ET)  (Read 13187 times)
#TheShadowyAbyss
TheShadowyAbyss
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« Reply #50 on: April 26, 2016, 05:02:19 PM »

Late deciders in Connecticut broke for Kasich 39% Trump 35% Cruz 16%

Fox News.
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RI
realisticidealist
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« Reply #51 on: April 26, 2016, 05:02:42 PM »


NY was 35/27/14/22
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #52 on: April 26, 2016, 05:03:43 PM »

Cruz really needed to put up a decent showing in PA. Sucks to be him right now.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #53 on: April 26, 2016, 05:05:04 PM »

Late deciders in Connecticut broke for Kasich 39% Trump 35% Cruz 16%

Fox News.

Aren't late deciders usually heavy anti-Trump?
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Boston Bread
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« Reply #54 on: April 26, 2016, 05:06:34 PM »

Late deciders in Connecticut broke for Kasich 39% Trump 35% Cruz 16%

Fox News.

Aren't late deciders usually heavy anti-Trump?
They are Anti Trump compared to the overall electorate which is over 50 percent Trump.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #55 on: April 26, 2016, 05:07:53 PM »

http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/live-republican-primary-exit-poll-analysis/story?id=38654929

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Fargobison
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« Reply #56 on: April 26, 2016, 05:10:27 PM »

Late deciders in Connecticut broke for Kasich 39% Trump 35% Cruz 16%
Fox News

Trump won late deciders in NY 44-39-17 but I doubt that number is enough to keep him under 50.
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Vosem
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« Reply #57 on: April 26, 2016, 05:11:01 PM »
« Edited: April 26, 2016, 05:14:33 PM by Vosem »

Late deciders in Connecticut broke for Kasich 39% Trump 35% Cruz 16%

Fox News.

Aren't late deciders usually heavy anti-Trump?

Undecideds in polling always break heavy anti-trump (outside of NY/NH/MA -- spot a pattern?), but self-identified "late deciders" in exit polls have had a more variable streak: trump won them in Wisconsin, for instance. Exit polling that forces the person responding to resort to memory (as opposed to something self-explanatory, like race/gender/age/ideology) tends to be very weird.

EDIT: Also, the % white evangelical in Pennsylvania is very good news for Cruz (northern evangelicals have basically been a safe constituency for him, unlike southern evangelicals), though the "feelings if trump is elected President" looks very bad for him. Guess we'll see if Pennsylvanian evangelicals are more like Michigan's or Virginia's very soon.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #58 on: April 26, 2016, 05:11:36 PM »


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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #59 on: April 26, 2016, 05:12:27 PM »

Yeah the late deciders aren't anything to fret about. Trump's probably around 60% of those who decided 'months ago'.
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ashridge
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« Reply #60 on: April 26, 2016, 05:21:34 PM »

PA GOP exit: If XXX is the nominee...

Trump
Definitely vote for: 56%
Probably vote for: 20
Not vote for: 22

Cruz
Def 25%
Prob 36%
Not 37%

I really doubt that 37% number for Cruz. If it's accurate, it means a lot of Dems in PA would cross over and vote for him in General. Less than 2 weeks ago a Q. poll of PA showed him and Clinton basically tied in PA H2H in November.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #61 on: April 26, 2016, 05:22:13 PM »

Were you voting for your candidate or against someone else?






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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #62 on: April 26, 2016, 05:24:54 PM »

PA GOP exit: If XXX is the nominee...

Trump
Definitely vote for: 56%
Probably vote for: 20
Not vote for: 22

Cruz
Def 25%
Prob 36%
Not 37%

I really doubt that 37% number for Cruz. If it's accurate, it means a lot of Dems in PA would cross over and vote for him in General. Less than 2 weeks ago a Q. poll of PA showed him and Clinton basically tied in PA H2H in November.

But Marist has Clinton beating Trump by 15 points:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=235244.0
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #63 on: April 26, 2016, 05:38:39 PM »

http://edition.cnn.com/2016/04/26/politics/super-tuesday-exit-polls/

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yankeesfan
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« Reply #64 on: April 26, 2016, 05:40:16 PM »

@ryangrim
Exit polls have Trump stomping mofos, pulling more than 60%
7m

The GOP race is over.
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Classic Conservative
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« Reply #65 on: April 26, 2016, 05:44:14 PM »

I am deciding whether to vote support Trump in the general if he gets there, but it will be conditional if his supporters especially Clash don't piss me off.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #66 on: April 26, 2016, 05:44:33 PM »

Using algebra from these sets of #s:









it’s pretty clear that the exit poll has Trump averaging over 50% of the vote among the three states being polled.  Why else would the over # be closer to Trump than non-Trump?
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Gass3268
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« Reply #67 on: April 26, 2016, 05:45:00 PM »

@ryangrim
Exit polls have Trump stomping mofos, pulling more than 60%
7m

The GOP race is over.

Daaaaym!
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15 Down, 35 To Go
ExtremeRepublican
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« Reply #68 on: April 26, 2016, 05:46:18 PM »

@ryangrim
Exit polls have Trump stomping mofos, pulling more than 60%
7m

The GOP race is over.

Daaaaym!

Which state?
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #69 on: April 26, 2016, 05:47:49 PM »




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yankeesfan
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« Reply #70 on: April 26, 2016, 05:47:56 PM »

@ryangrim
Exit polls have Trump stomping mofos, pulling more than 60%
7m

The GOP race is over.

Daaaaym!

Which state?

Since he didn't provide any context, my interpretation would be multiple states.
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Vosem
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« Reply #71 on: April 26, 2016, 05:56:43 PM »





it’s pretty clear that the exit poll has Trump averaging over 50% of the vote among the three states being polled.  Why else would the over # be closer to Trump than non-Trump?


Judging from these images, trump's average across the states being polled (what are they, btw) is 56%
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RI
realisticidealist
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« Reply #72 on: April 26, 2016, 05:57:15 PM »

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ExtremeRepublican
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« Reply #73 on: April 26, 2016, 05:59:59 PM »

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This is just the Northeast (four blue states and one swing state).  Wait until we go back to real America next week!!
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Holmes
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« Reply #74 on: April 26, 2016, 06:01:01 PM »

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This is just the Northeast (four blue states and one swing state).  Wait until we go back to real America next week!!

lul
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