Republican Acela Corridor Tuesday results thread (all polls close at 8pm ET)

[NHI]

So #NeverTrump - it's either get on board with the people or rig the convention through undemocratic means.

[Badger]

I know that momentum is overrated this season, but does what happens today changes what will happen in Indiana?

Trump wins IN, narrowly, but essentially puts the race away.

Still have Cruz winning Indiana.

And you also "have" the Earth being only 6000 years old. kindly assert evidence in support of your posts. it'll be tough to adapt from sweeping baseless assertions i know, but give it a shot.

Well, patterns in the Northeast have been different to patterns elsewhere in the country the entire election, especially with regards to age. Undecideds in pretty much every Midwestern state to vote so far have broken very hard against _trump, and in places where it was clear who the main opponent was a large chunk of support for any tertiary candidate in the race went to that person too. _trump received 35% in WI, 36% in OH and MI, and 38% in IL, suggesting that if you think the change is limited to the Northeast _trump "should" be in the high 30s in Indiana (which is where polls conducted over the last week have shown him), and undecideds should mostly break Cruz. If you think the Cruz/Kasich drove undecided voters to _trump and is the reason they're doing so poorly tonight (and, furthermore, you think that will be reflected everywhere and isn't a Northeastern phenomenon), no polls have been conducted since then, so _trump may be stronger in Indiana now than he was a few days ago.

Tonight, undecideds broke for _trump. Very strongly. If you think that's because of momentum/the narrative shifting countrywide, and not limited to the Northeast, _trump will win Indiana. If you think it's because of location and not chronology, then Cruz wins Indiana. It's pretty simple.

Nah, that's a decent argument even if i'm not sure it'll hold water after tonight . but at least it's well thought out.

[dax00]

Hope Cruz gets under 10% in RI statewide so he can't get any delegates there.

Do CT CDs matter with Trump clearly >50% statewide?

Yes, but in this case he'd be getting all 28 anyways.

[Badger]

Hope Cruz gets under 10% in RI statewide so he can't get any delegates there.

Do CT CDs matter with Trump clearly >50% statewide?

Yes, but in this case he'd be getting all 28 anyways.

Seriously though, any delegate math estimates out there?

CT: Trump 28/28
DE: Trump 16/16
PA: Trump 17, Unpledged 54
MD: Probably of the 38 for Trump, but Kasick may win a CD in the suburbs (3 delegates then).
RI: Trump 13, Kasick 5, Cruz 1 or Trump 13, Kasick 6.

Thanks Max. It's probably too soon, but any firm PA delegate numbers?

[Mr. Morden]

Very early PA delegate leaders on the Republican side (the unpledged district delegates)

PA-2:
leading candidates are:
Havey (district winner)
Tucker (uncommitted)
Cohen (uncommitted)

PA-3:
leading candidates are:
English (Kasich)
Yates (uncommitted, but “strongly impressed by Kasich")
Ryan (supports Trump, but will vote for district winner)

PA-4:
leading candidates are:
Rothman (district winner)
Sacco (Trump)
Scaringi (Trump)

PA-5:
leading candidates are:
Klein (Trump)
McClure (Trump)
Khare (district winner)

PA-8:
leading candidates are:
DiGirolamo (uncommitted, but on Kasich PAC slate)
Loughery (uncommitted, but on Kasich PAC slate)
Worthington (Trump)

PA-9:
leading candidates are:
Ward (district winner)
Shuster (uncommitted)
Taylor (Trump)

PA-10:
leading candidates are:
Sides (Trump)
Scavello (district winner)
Pickett (district winner)

PA-11:
leading candidates are:
Morelli (Trump)
McElwee (Trump)
Shecktor (Trump)

PA-12:
leading candidates are:
Vasilko (Trump)
Steigerwalt (Cruz)
Morrill (Trump)

PA-13:
leading candidates are:
Cox (district winner)
Ellis (district winner)
McMonagle ??

PA-16:
leading candidates are:
Brubaker (Cruz)
Denlinger (uncommitted)
Dumeyer (district winner)

PA-17:
leading candidates are:
Villano (Trump)
Bonkoski (Trump)
Snover (supports Trump, but will vote for district winner)

PA-18:
leading candidates are:
DePlato (Trump)
Uram (Trump)
Petrarca (Trump)

[Ronnie]

Well...yikes.  Looks like he cleaned up with the unbound delegates.

[Vosem]

Halvorson winning on the back of the _trump wave is a profoundly amusing result, since the guy has said in the past he would join the (monolithically Cruz-supporting) House Freedom Caucus if he were actually elected. The primary is the real election in this district, of course.

Goes to demonstrate how, outside of the presidential race, _trump has utterly failed in changing the nature of the insurgency within the Republican Party. Where are all the _trumpist candidates? Hell, where are the candidates at least positioning themselves as _trumpist for the sake of an election? The only ones I can think of, in the entire country, are Mike Pape and Renee Ellmers, and both of them are, at least according to CW, massive underdogs.

[Suburbia]

Cruz could pick up some delegates in Maryland tonight. I think he will take at least 1.

[swf541]

Cruz could pick up some delegates in Maryland tonight. I think he will take at least 1.

Extremely unlikely

[The Free North]

Cruz at 7% in Dairen! Beautiful!

[Mr. Morden]

Updated vote leaders for delegate in some of the CDs:

***
PA-4:
leading candidates are:
Sacco (Trump)
Jansen (Trump)
Scaringi (Trump)

***
PA-6:
Costello (district winner)
Lightcap (Trump)
Buckwalter (Trump)

***
PA-7:
Puppio (district winner)
Willert (district winner)
Miller ??

***
PA-8:
leading candidates are:
Worthington (Trump)
Casper (supports Trump, but will vote for district winner)
Loughery (uncommitted, but on Kasich PAC slate)

***
PA-13:
leading candidates are:
Cox (district winner)
Ellis (district winner)
Casper (district winner)

***
PA-15:
leading candidates are:
Heydt ??
Hoffman (Cruz)
Smith (Cruz)

***
PA-18:
leading candidates are:
Means (Cruz)
DePlato (Trump)
Petrarca (Trump)

[yourelection]

Stand by for the Trump victory speech

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

LOL Christie is there.

[yourelection]

Woops what was happening at the start of the Trump speech?

[yourelection]

Okay they finally got the sound system under control

[Gass3268]

Haha Christie

[yourelection]

"Bernie should run as an independent" Oh yea Trump would really like that LOL

[Vosem]

Amusingly enough, the only place Cruz is even in second place in Connecticut that I could find is the town of Kent, where Kasich is at 58%, Cruz at 21%, _trump at 16%, and "other" at 5%. What a lovely place that must be

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

Where is the "what have I done?" Christie?

[dax00]

So Trump is winning roughly 27 of the unpledged delegates from PA - on target.

[Vosem]

Where is the "what have I done?" Christie?

Permanently out of a job after January 19, 2018.

[Gass3268]

Trump is probably going to win every county in all 5 states tonight.

[The Free North]

Only 22 towns with no results in CT...and mine is one of them

[Ronnie]

Trump is probably going to win every county in all 5 states tonight.

I don't think even the most bullish of Trump optimists expected that.  I'm absolutely stupefied he might even win the DC suburbs.

[Admiral Kizaru]

lol Trump needs to fire the sound technician after tonight.