Republican Acela Corridor Tuesday results thread (all polls close at 8pm ET)

[yourelection]

Too early to start speculating on Trump's VP pick? How about Christie?

[swf541]

Too early to start speculating on Trump's VP pick? How about Christie?

Well he did say he would have to consider him or something like that tonight

[Lyin' Steve]

With about half the votes in, these are now the leading unbound delegate candidates in every PA district:

PA-1:
Vogler (uncommitted, but will consider district winner)
Hackett (district winner)
Kaufer (considering district winner / Trump)

2/3

PA-2:
leading candidates are:
Havey (district winner)
Tucker (uncommitted)
Cohen (uncommitted)

1/3

PA-3:
leading candidates are:
English (Kasich)
Yates (uncommitted, but “strongly impressed by Kasich")
Ryan (supports Trump, but will vote for district winner)

1/1

PA-4:
leading candidates are:
Sacco (Trump)
Jansen (Trump)
Scaringi (Trump)

3/3

PA-5:
leading candidates are:
Klein (Trump)
McClure (Trump)
Khare (district winner)

3/3

PA-6:
Costello (district winner)
Lightcap (Trump)
Buckwalter (Trump)

3/3

PA-7:
Puppio (district winner)
Willert (district winner)
Miller ??

2/3

PA-8:
leading candidates are:
Worthington (Trump)
Casper (supports Trump, but will vote for district winner)
Loughery (uncommitted, but on Kasich PAC slate)

2/2

PA-9:
leading candidates are:
Ward (district winner)
Shuster (uncommitted)
Taylor (Trump)

2/3

PA-10:
leading candidates are:
Sides (Trump)
Scavello (district winner)
Pickett (district winner)

3/3

PA-11:
leading candidates are:
Morelli (Trump)
McElwee (Trump)
Shecktor (Trump)

3/3

PA-12:
leading candidates are:
Steigerwalt (Cruz)
Morrill (Trump)
Majernik (district winner)

2/2

PA-13:
leading candidates are:
Cox (district winner)
Ellis (district winner)
Casper (district winner)

3/3

PA-14:
Meloy (uncommitted)
Devanney (uncommitted)
Linton (Kasich)

0/2

PA-15:
leading candidates are:
Uehlinger (district winner)
Reber (Trump)
Kerwin (Trump)

3/3

PA-16:
leading candidates are:
Brubaker (Cruz)
Denlinger (uncommitted)
Dumeyer (district winner)

1/2

PA-17:
leading candidates are:
Villano (Trump)
Bonkoski (Trump)
Snover (supports Trump, but will vote for district winner)

3/3

PA-18:
leading candidates are:
Means (Cruz)
DePlato (Trump)
Petrarca (Trump)

2/3

Assuming Trump wins every CD (can't find results anywhere) this means he gets between 37 and 48 unpledged delegates.  Even with Cruz shenanigans like having his delegates lie and say they'd support Trump, then vote for Cruz on the first ballot, that's still at least 30 delegates.

So he has 981 delegates after tonight, and gets to 1237 with the following numbers:
Indiana:  39/57
Nebraska:  0/36
West Virginia:  34/34
Oregon:  12/28
Washington:  17/44
California:  100/172
Montana:  0/27
New Jersey:  51/51
New Mexico:  10/24
South Dakota:  0/29
Not hard numbers to get at all even if he wasn't outperforming expectations.  If he wins Indiana, it's over.  If he loses Indiana, he's probably still ok if he can get a dozen or so more uncommitted delegates.
Say hello to nominee Trump.  Boy, he surprised me.  I never thought he'd be able to get majorities in these northeastern states, but he's played this anti-Cruz strategy very, very smart.  I'm impressed.

[/]

[Derpist]

Great speech! And a massive delegate sweep - even higher than expected. Apparently also includes a majority of the unpledged delegates in Pennslyvania - which massively changes the math going forward.

A tie in Indiana and a win in California pushes TRUMP! to 1237, so it's definitely not too early to speculate on his Veep pick.

[Ljube]

TRUMP

[Xing]

Well, I guess that if Cruz can't win Indiana, Trump is victorious.

[NHI]

Great speech! And a massive delegate sweep - even higher than expected. Apparently also includes a majority of the unpledged delegates in Pennslyvania - which massively changes the math going forward.

A tie in Indiana and a win in California pushes TRUMP! to 1237, so it's definitely not too early to speculate on his Veep pick.

He's got it. Say hello to Nominee Trump.

[Fargobison]

Too early to start speculating on Trump's VP pick? How about Christie?

Well he did say he would have to consider him or something like that tonight

Ok Gov. Mary Fallin has been gaining some steam lately.

[MisSkeptic]

I wonder if John Kasich will drop out tonight.

[Fargobison]

Trump is very incoherent right now.

What else is new? He is a complete trainwreck.

[libertpaulian]

I wonder if John Kasich will drop out tonight.

Too egotistical to do so.

[Derpist]

MD is the one that really surprises me, considering how close VA was and how badly Trump lost the culturally Northern parts on 3/1.

As the field winnows, Trump gains more support. Many Rubio voters are probably pulling the lever for Donald Trump right now.

[Gass3268]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Hahaha!

[Derpist]

MD is the one that really surprises me, considering how close VA was and how badly Trump lost the culturally Northern parts on 3/1.

That's a DC suburb thing, not a culturally Northern thing. A lot of "very serious people".

fixed.

[Maxwell]

Too early to start speculating on Trump's VP pick? How about Christie?

Well he did say he would have to consider him or something like that tonight

Ok Gov. Mary Fallin has been gaining some steam lately.

That would be an amazing pick - for the Democrats.

Even Palin is a better pick than Fallin.

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

does AP have CD results?

[swf541]

Trump sweep in MD confirmed.  Carroll/Frederick margins more than enough to win MD-08.  Also, Anthony Brown is heading to congress, defeating Glenn Ivey in MD-04 (D).  Jamie Raskin, state senator and progressive establishment candidate, beat Trone and Matthews in MD-08 (D) in a reversal of Delaney's outsider win over state senator Garagiola 4 years ago in neighboring MD-06.

Well Gargiola was hated by the western marylanders so its not exactly the same but it is pretty similar

[Ronnie]

I think the answer to this question might be obvious, but did Trump win every CD in Pennsylvania?

[swf541]

I think the answer to this question might be obvious, but did Trump win every CD in Pennsylvania?

He won every county but one outstanding one so I assume so, would like to know that as well

[Gass3268]

Trump swept every CD in Maryland. Looks like he's going to get 110 pledged delegates tonight. What a dominate performance.

[swf541]

Trump swept every CD in Maryland. Looks like he's going to get 110 pledged delegates tonight. What a dominate performance.

Add on alot of the PA unbounds and its even more amazing

[Lyin' Steve]

Looks like Trump sweeps every state except Rhode Island and will probably get 11 delegates there.  Compared to the FiveThirtyEight experts (real experts, they got polling company CEOs to do this not their BuzzFeed dropout staff) predictions:
CT 28/19
DE 16/15
MD 38/31
PA 17/16
RI 11/10
+19 for the night.  Their predictions have him at 1191, so if he simply matches expectations for the remainder of the primary he'll get 1210.  But he should easily be able to get 27 of the 146 unpledged delegates -- if the spreadsheet is correct he got 37 just from Pennsylvania tonight.

[Vosem]

If he gets a similar resort boost in the general, could that put him over the top in FL and NV in a competitive race?  Trouble for him is that both states are also very Hispanic in the general electorate.

Primary electorates (for both parties) and general electorates are not similar. Trump is significantly weaker in both FL and NV than generic R because of how much weaker he is with the Hispanic vote (especially in Florida, which is home to one of the Republican-voting groups that Trump collapses with -- the Cubans).

Even in a victory scenario I don't think Trump carries Florida or Nevada.

[dax00]

Even in a victory scenario I don't think Trump carries Florida or Nevada.

Many of my (Nevadan) friends are young Hispanic Republicans who would vote Trump over Hillary.