Republican Acela Corridor Tuesday results thread (all polls close at 8pm ET)
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
March 28, 2024, 03:55:47 AM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Election Archive
  Election Archive
  2016 U.S. Presidential Election
  Republican Acela Corridor Tuesday results thread (all polls close at 8pm ET)
« previous next »
Pages: 1 ... 8 9 10 11 12 [13] 14 15
Author Topic: Republican Acela Corridor Tuesday results thread (all polls close at 8pm ET)  (Read 13184 times)
Gass3268
Moderators
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,478
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #300 on: April 26, 2016, 10:31:23 PM »

There is no reason Kasich should have lost Montgomery County. Totally embarrassing.
Logged
MaxQue
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 12,600
Canada


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #301 on: April 26, 2016, 10:31:53 PM »

Even in a victory scenario I don't think Trump carries Florida or Nevada.
Many of my (Nevadan) friends are young Hispanic Republicans who would vote Trump over Hillary.

Yes, but as Hispanic Republicans, they are already Republicans. That's not the type of voter he needs to convince.
Logged
Vosem
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,618
United States


Political Matrix
E: 8.13, S: -6.09

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #302 on: April 26, 2016, 10:35:44 PM »

Even in a victory scenario I don't think Trump carries Florida or Nevada.
Many of my (Nevadan) friends are young Hispanic Republicans who would vote Trump over Hillary.

Anecdote isn't evidence. You know one Russian-American Republican, I presume (me), and I'm strongly anti-Trump; nevertheless, the community as a whole gave Trump over 80% of the vote. Essentially all polling has shown that Trump would receive less than half of the Hispanic support Mitt Romney got, and roughly a quarter of what George Bush got.

This is especially the case in Florida, where there is a community of Hispanic Republicans and they despise Trump. Nevada Hispanic Republicans are more likely to be individual contrarians who would consider pulling the lever for Trump; Trump loses there by ginning up turnout among normal, Democratic-leaning (or not even that, just very anti-Trump) Hispanics.
Logged
Gass3268
Moderators
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,478
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #303 on: April 26, 2016, 10:44:01 PM »

Northeast PA is ridockulous for Trump.
Logged
Ronnie
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,993
United States
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #304 on: April 26, 2016, 10:47:07 PM »

Trump now has over 10 million votes and 40% of the overall vote (rounded up):

http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P16/R
Logged
Lyin' Steve
SteveMcQueen
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,310


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #305 on: April 26, 2016, 10:52:13 PM »

Trump is getting presumptive nominee numbers at this point.  50-60%+ and his opponents around 10-20% is what Bill Clinton, John McCain and Mitt Romney were getting by the time they had basically won but hadn't yet forced out their opponents.
Logged
Ljube
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,986
Political Matrix
E: 2.71, S: -6.09

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #306 on: April 26, 2016, 10:57:04 PM »

Trump is getting presumptive nominee numbers at this point.  50-60%+ and his opponents around 10-20% is what Bill Clinton, John McCain and Mitt Romney were getting by the time they had basically won but hadn't yet forced out their opponents.

The people don't want contested conventions and delegate shenanigans. The voters are coalescing around Trump and the healing of the party has already begun. I expect Trump to exceed expectations in all future states due to the presumptive nominee effect.
Logged
Gass3268
Moderators
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,478
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #307 on: April 26, 2016, 11:06:16 PM »

Quote
You must be logged in to read this quote.
Logged
Lyin' Steve
SteveMcQueen
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,310


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #308 on: April 26, 2016, 11:07:13 PM »

Trump is getting presumptive nominee numbers at this point.  50-60%+ and his opponents around 10-20% is what Bill Clinton, John McCain and Mitt Romney were getting by the time they had basically won but hadn't yet forced out their opponents.

The people don't want contested conventions and delegate shenanigans. The voters are coalescing around Trump and the healing of the party has already begun. I expect Trump to exceed expectations in all future states due to the presumptive nominee effect.

Honestly, it's hard to say he doesn't deserve it.  He's run far and away the strongest, most effective and substantive campaign.  What was Cruz's substance?  What was his point, what was his message?  That he's a real conservative?  What even is Cruz's campaign slogan, is that what TrusTED is?  What are Cruz's campaign promises or big ideas?  I can't answer any of these questions.  I can answer all of them for Trump.
All Cruz really is is a default not-Trump choice.  Other than that, he's nothing.  People say he's tried oh-so-hard and campaigned oh-so-smart, but can you tell me one attack on Trump that's worked?  Can you tell me one thing he's said about himself that's helped him in any significant way, or any one performance or moment that's helped him?  The only thing I can think of is his CNBC debate performance.  Other than that, the main reason he survived while the others didn't is that he was more competent and disciplined than his opponents and that was enough to win Iowa and outlast Rubio.
Logged
libertpaulian
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,610
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #309 on: April 26, 2016, 11:21:44 PM »

Even in a victory scenario I don't think Trump carries Florida or Nevada.
Many of my (Nevadan) friends are young Hispanic Republicans who would vote Trump over Hillary.

Yes, but as Hispanic Republicans, they are already Republicans. That's not the type of voter he needs to convince.
True, but they could have been on the #NeverTrump bandwagon.
Logged
Ljube
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,986
Political Matrix
E: 2.71, S: -6.09

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #310 on: April 26, 2016, 11:25:47 PM »

Even in a victory scenario I don't think Trump carries Florida or Nevada.
Many of my (Nevadan) friends are young Hispanic Republicans who would vote Trump over Hillary.

Yes, but as Hispanic Republicans, they are already Republicans. That's not the type of voter he needs to convince.
True, but they could have been on the #NeverTrump bandwagon.


Arguably, to win, Trump needs to convince only the #NeverTrump bunch. He does not need to reach out to the Democrats. He's already got a number of them in states where it counts (OH, PA, MI).
Logged
Badger
badger
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 40,237
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #311 on: April 26, 2016, 11:26:15 PM »

Even in a victory scenario I don't think Trump carries Florida or Nevada.
Many of my (Nevadan) friends are young Hispanic Republicans who would vote Trump over Hillary.

Hate to break it t you , but your friends are an. EXTREME minority in their state .
Logged
Holmes
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 13,719
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -6.45, S: -5.74

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #312 on: April 26, 2016, 11:26:39 PM »

Trump is getting presumptive nominee numbers at this point.  50-60%+ and his opponents around 10-20% is what Bill Clinton, John McCain and Mitt Romney were getting by the time they had basically won but hadn't yet forced out their opponents.

The people don't want contested conventions and delegate shenanigans. The voters are coalescing around Trump and the healing of the party has already begun. I expect Trump to exceed expectations in all future states due to the presumptive nominee effect.

I agree on the first half, but I don't think the party is anywhere near the healing stage.
Logged
Mr. Morden
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 44,073
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #313 on: April 26, 2016, 11:29:35 PM »

With about half the votes in, these are now the leading unbound delegate candidates in every PA district:

PA-1:
Vogler (uncommitted, but will consider district winner)
Hackett (district winner)
Kaufer (considering district winner / Trump)

PA-2:
leading candidates are:
Havey (district winner)
Tucker (uncommitted)
Cohen (uncommitted)

PA-3:
leading candidates are:
English (Kasich)
Yates (uncommitted, but “strongly impressed by Kasich")
Ryan (supports Trump, but will vote for district winner)

PA-4:
leading candidates are:
Sacco (Trump)
Jansen (Trump)
Scaringi (Trump)

PA-5:
leading candidates are:
Klein (Trump)
McClure (Trump)
Khare (district winner)

PA-6:
Costello (district winner)
Lightcap (Trump)
Buckwalter (Trump)

PA-7:
Puppio (district winner)
Willert (district winner)
Miller ??

PA-8:
leading candidates are:
Worthington (Trump)
Casper (supports Trump, but will vote for district winner)
Loughery (uncommitted, but on Kasich PAC slate)

PA-9:
leading candidates are:
Ward (district winner)
Shuster (uncommitted)
Taylor (Trump)

PA-10:
leading candidates are:
Sides (Trump)
Scavello (district winner)
Pickett (district winner)

PA-11:
leading candidates are:
Morelli (Trump)
McElwee (Trump)
Shecktor (Trump)

PA-12:
leading candidates are:
Steigerwalt (Cruz)
Morrill (Trump)
Majernik (district winner)

PA-13:
leading candidates are:
Cox (district winner)
Ellis (district winner)
Casper (district winner)

PA-14:
Meloy (uncommitted)
Devanney (uncommitted)
Linton (Kasich)

PA-15:
leading candidates are:
Uehlinger (district winner)
Reber (Trump)
Kerwin (Trump)

PA-16:
leading candidates are:
Brubaker (Cruz)
Denlinger (uncommitted)
Dumeyer (district winner)

PA-17:
leading candidates are:
Villano (Trump)
Bonkoski (Trump)
Snover (supports Trump, but will vote for district winner)

PA-18:
leading candidates are:
Means (Cruz)
DePlato (Trump)
Petrarca (Trump)


With 95%+ of the votes in, the only revisions to the above are in these two CDs:

PA-6:
Costello (district winner)
Wert (Cruz)
Buckwalter (Trump)

PA-12:
Morrill (Trump)
Steigerwalt (Cruz)
Vasilko (Trump)
Logged
IceSpear
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 31,841
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.19, S: -6.43

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #314 on: April 26, 2016, 11:29:39 PM »

Trump's performance tonight is nothing short of astounding. If Cruz and Kasich had any shame they'd drop out tomorrow.
Logged
MaxQue
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 12,600
Canada


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #315 on: April 26, 2016, 11:30:42 PM »

Even in a victory scenario I don't think Trump carries Florida or Nevada.
Many of my (Nevadan) friends are young Hispanic Republicans who would vote Trump over Hillary.

Yes, but as Hispanic Republicans, they are already Republicans. That's not the type of voter he needs to convince.
True, but they could have been on the #NeverTrump bandwagon.


Arguably, to win, Trump needs to convince only the #NeverTrump bunch. He does not need to reach out to the Democrats. He's already got a number of them in states where it counts (OH, PA, MI).

I have an hunch 90% of the "Democrats" voting for Trump voted for Romney in 2012 general.
Logged
ElectionsGuy
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 21,107
United States


Political Matrix
E: 7.10, S: -7.65

P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #316 on: April 26, 2016, 11:35:40 PM »

Embarrassing performance tonight by Cruz and Kasich, but especially Cruz.
Logged
15 Down, 35 To Go
ExtremeRepublican
Moderators
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,659


Political Matrix
E: 7.35, S: 5.57


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #317 on: April 26, 2016, 11:39:33 PM »

Basically, Cruz needs to win Indiana and come close in California to force this to the convention (assuming that Trump gets most of the PA unpledged, as it seems).

http://53eig.ht/1237#CT:28,DE:16,MD:38,PA:17,RI:11,IN:9,WV:25,OR:12,WA:17,CA:118,NJ:51,NM:10,UN:37
Logged
Gass3268
Moderators
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,478
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #318 on: April 26, 2016, 11:41:31 PM »

Basically, Cruz needs to win Indiana and come close in California to force this to the convention (assuming that Trump gets most of the PA unpledged, as it seems).

http://53eig.ht/1237#CT:28,DE:16,MD:38,PA:17,RI:11,IN:9,WV:25,OR:12,WA:17,CA:118,NJ:51,NM:10,UN:37

The "and" is the keyword. Trump can win even with losing Indiana if he wins California by enough.
Logged
PeteB
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,874
Canada


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #319 on: April 26, 2016, 11:50:45 PM »

Wow just wow!

I have little time or patience for Trump but he cleaned it up tonight (I just got off a plane and am trying to absorb all the results).

A contested convention just became much less likely.

Do we know the CD delegate split in MD?
Logged
Vosem
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,618
United States


Political Matrix
E: 8.13, S: -6.09

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #320 on: April 26, 2016, 11:55:05 PM »

Even in a victory scenario I don't think Trump carries Florida or Nevada.
Many of my (Nevadan) friends are young Hispanic Republicans who would vote Trump over Hillary.

Yes, but as Hispanic Republicans, they are already Republicans. That's not the type of voter he needs to convince.
True, but they could have been on the #NeverTrump bandwagon.


Arguably, to win, Trump needs to convince only the #NeverTrump bunch. He does not need to reach out to the Democrats. He's already got a number of them in states where it counts (OH, PA, MI).

I can tell you from the ground here in Ohio that, whatever "Democrats" Trump may have, there are zero people who voted for Obama in 2012 who will vote for Trump. A small number who were particularly enthused to vote for Obama specifically may sit the election out, but nobody is voting for Trump.
Logged
dax00
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,422


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #321 on: April 26, 2016, 11:55:18 PM »

Wow just wow!

I have little time or patience for Trump but he cleaned it up tonight (I just got off a plane and am trying to absorb all the results).

A contested convention just became much less likely.

Do we know the CD delegate split in MD?
Trump wins all 38.
Logged
Wisconsin+17
Ben Kenobi
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,127
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #322 on: April 27, 2016, 01:18:44 AM »

Quote
You must be logged in to read this quote.

Actually, Trump managed to lose ground. He needed all the delegates tonight. Did well everywhere but Rhode Island.

My original tabs put him about 50 short of the nomination.
Logged
Alcon
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 30,867
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #323 on: April 27, 2016, 01:21:50 AM »

Quote
You must be logged in to read this quote.

Actually, Trump managed to lose ground. He needed all the delegates tonight. Did well everywhere but Rhode Island.

My original tabs put him about 50 short of the nomination.

I haven't looked at your methodology, but really?  It seems like it would make more sense to estimate where Trump is at in remaining states, and keep increasing his performance in each state linearly until he hits 1237.  That obviously wouldn't have involved winning every delegate in Rhode Island (unless I misremember their allocation methodology), because that would require such an absurdly strong performance that he would have clinched via big victories in Indiana and California first.  No?
Logged
Seriously?
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,029
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #324 on: April 27, 2016, 01:32:33 AM »
« Edited: April 27, 2016, 01:40:05 AM by Seriously? »

Quote
You must be logged in to read this quote.

Actually, Trump managed to lose ground. He needed all the delegates tonight. Did well everywhere but Rhode Island.

My original tabs put him about 50 short of the nomination.
Trump surely didn't lose ground tonight. 538 has him ahead of pace to get to 1237 by five (5) delegates.

The Donald took 110 of the 118 delegates tonight, cleaner than as clean of a sweep that was realistically possible. (I had him maxed out at about 109).

The most optimistic of projections did not have Trump getting to 11 delegates in Rhode Island. I figured the best Trump could get out of RI tonight was 10 delegates. Cruz managed to screw up CD-2 so badly that he fell under 10% and Trump got an unexpected extra delegate.

Trump could not have had a better night than he did tonight. The math in Rhode Island made a clean sweep impossible.

It's kind of ironic though, Trump's best state this cycle is Rhode Island (64%). He only took the delegation 11-8 due to how RI apportions its delegates.
Logged
Pages: 1 ... 8 9 10 11 12 [13] 14 15  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.072 seconds with 13 queries.