Republican Acela Corridor Tuesday results thread (all polls close at 8pm ET)

[Mr. Morden]

Overview of all results: http://www.politico.com/2016-election/results/map/president

Polls in all five states close at 8pm.

Connecticut, Maryland, and Pennsylvania will all have exit polls.  Delaware and Rhode Island will not.

At 5pm, the networks will be given access to the early exit poll numbers.  So some time between about 5:10 and 5:30pm or so, we’ll start getting news reports from them about things like what percentage of the voters are Independents, what the top issues on voters’ minds are, etc.  But they’ll withhold the topline numbers (who is winning the exit poll) until all the polls have closed in the state.

Connecticut
CNN: http://edition.cnn.com/election/primaries/states/ct/Rep
NYT: http://www.nytimes.com/elections/2016/primaries/connecticut

Delaware
CNN: http://edition.cnn.com/election/primaries/states/de/Rep
NYT: http://www.nytimes.com/elections/2016/primaries/delaware

Maryland
CNN: http://edition.cnn.com/election/primaries/states/md/Rep
NYT: http://www.nytimes.com/elections/2016/primaries/maryland

Pennsylvania
Official state returns for delegates: link
CNN: http://edition.cnn.com/election/primaries/states/pa/Rep
NYT: http://www.nytimes.com/elections/2016/primaries/pennsylvania

Rhode Island
CNN: http://edition.cnn.com/election/primaries/states/ri/Rep
NYT: http://www.nytimes.com/elections/2016/primaries/rhode-island



Above: The “Cruzich” alliance is born, as Trump looks on.

[Mr. Morden]

National weather map:



Baltimore:

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Philadelphia:

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Pittsburgh:

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Providence:

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[Mr. Morden]

Since I guess it’s safe to assume that Trump will win all five states, the main thing I’ll actually be watching is who wins the delegate races in Pennsylvania.  PA will represent the largest catch of unbound delegates in the country, given the state’s loophole primary.  Note that I linked to the state’s official election returns site in the OP.  I assume they’ll tell us who is winning each individual delegate race, but I don’t know.  If you find another site with that info, post it here, and I’ll add a link in the OP.

In the “Delegate fight” thread, Classic Conservative found this useful Google doc, which allegedly provides the loyalties of all the delegate candidates:

I found this online about the PA Unbound Delegates
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1NfzyoWfwqjrYbc5Xqb9lyerxztNxLuZDzwPBarYZJFA/htmlview?pli=1

But we also have other lists.  E.g.:

http://www.pennlive.com/politics/index.ssf/2016/04/breakdown_of_gop_delegates_sup.html

And then the Cruz and Trump campaigns have their own list of delegate candidates that they want people to vote for:

[Mr. Morden]

CD's 1 and 14 don't have Trump or Cruz delegates?
CD 2 has a Cruz delegate but no Trump delegates?
CD 7 has Trump delegates but no Cruz delegates?
Or do some delegates have no preference in those districts?

The spreadsheet I linked to answers most of these questions.  3 delegates elected per district, but some of them only have 3 delegate candidates, so it doesn't actually matter who you vote for.  All 3 are getting in.  And some districts have delegate candidates with no preference, or else they say that they'll vote for whichever presidential candidate wins the district.

[Mr. Morden]

This may have already been answered in the delegate fight thread, but do we know if the Republican delegate candidates have their names listed on the ballot in alphabetical order?  I'd imagine that in a situation like this, where their presidential preferences aren't listed on the ballot and many names will be unfamiliar, whoever is listed first is going to have an advantage.

[Mr. Morden]

Business Insider talks to the PA delegate candidates:

http://www.businessinsider.com.au/donald-trump-pennsylvania-unbound-delegates-2016-4?r=US&IR=T

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[Mr. Morden]

http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/live-republican-primary-exit-poll-analysis/story?id=38654929

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[Mr. Morden]

[Mr. Morden]

Were you voting for your candidate or against someone else?

[Mr. Morden]

PA GOP exit: If XXX is the nominee...

Trump
Definitely vote for: 56%
Probably vote for: 20
Not vote for: 22

Cruz
Def 25%
Prob 36%
Not 37%

I really doubt that 37% number for Cruz. If it's accurate, it means a lot of Dems in PA would cross over and vote for him in General. Less than 2 weeks ago a Q. poll of PA showed him and Clinton basically tied in PA H2H in November.

But Marist has Clinton beating Trump by 15 points:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=235244.0

[Mr. Morden]

http://edition.cnn.com/2016/04/26/politics/super-tuesday-exit-polls/

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[Mr. Morden]

Using algebra from these sets of #s:









it’s pretty clear that the exit poll has Trump averaging over 50% of the vote among the three states being polled.  Why else would the over # be closer to Trump than non-Trump?

[Mr. Morden]

[Mr. Morden]

Added the official site for PA delegate results to the OP:

link

[Mr. Morden]

Exit poll discussion on Fox:

http://video.foxnews.com/v/4864634121001/early-look-at-exit-poll-data-from-super-tuesday-iii-states/

Kasich narrowly leads among late deciders in all three states that were polled.

Would not vote for Trump if he’s the nominee:

MD: 26%
CT: 25%
PA: 22%

[Mr. Morden]

[Mr. Morden]

[Mr. Morden]

[Mr. Morden]

PA exit poll toplines (if my math is right):

http://edition.cnn.com/election/primaries/states/pa/Rep

Trump 58%
Cruz 22.5%
Kasich 17.5%

[Mr. Morden]

CT exit poll toplines (if my math is right):

Trump 56.5%
Kasich 26%
Cruz 14.5%

MD exit poll toplines (if my math is right):

Trump 52.5%
Kasich 24.5%
Cruz 21%

[Mr. Morden]

PA by region in the exit poll:

http://edition.cnn.com/election/primaries/polls/pa/Rep

Philadelphia suburbs: Trump +18 over Kasich
Northeast: Trump +55 over Cruz
Central: Trump +36 over Cruz
West: Trump +31 over Kasich

[Mr. Morden]

PA by education level:

high school or less: Trump +56 over Cruz
some college: Trump +38 over Cruz
college graduate: Trump +26 over Cruz
postgraduate: Trump +9 over Kasich

PA by area type:

urban area: Trump +27 over Cruz
suburban area: Trump +25 over Kasich
rural area: Trump +48 over Cruz

[Mr. Morden]

Apparently, 5% of the CT primary electore on the Republican side was black? Per CNN exits?

Here’s the racial breakdown in the GOP primary in the three polled states:

CT:
white 92%
black 5%
latino 2%
asian 1%
other 1%

MD:
white 90%
black 4%
asian 2%
other 2%
latino 1%

PA:
white 94%
black 3%
latino 2%
asian 1%
other 1%

[Mr. Morden]

Super early delegate results in PA-18 has three Trump supporters leading:

Petrarca (Trump) 21 votes
Deplato (Trump) 20 votes
Uram (Trump) 18 votes

[Mr. Morden]

Very early PA delegate leaders on the Republican side (the unpledged district delegates)

PA-2:
leading candidates are:
Havey (district winner)
Tucker (uncommitted)
Cohen (uncommitted)

PA-3:
leading candidates are:
English (Kasich)
Yates (uncommitted, but “strongly impressed by Kasich")
Ryan (supports Trump, but will vote for district winner)

PA-4:
leading candidates are:
Rothman (district winner)
Sacco (Trump)
Scaringi (Trump)

PA-5:
leading candidates are:
Klein (Trump)
McClure (Trump)
Khare (district winner)

PA-8:
leading candidates are:
DiGirolamo (uncommitted, but on Kasich PAC slate)
Loughery (uncommitted, but on Kasich PAC slate)
Worthington (Trump)

PA-9:
leading candidates are:
Ward (district winner)
Shuster (uncommitted)
Taylor (Trump)

PA-10:
leading candidates are:
Sides (Trump)
Scavello (district winner)
Pickett (district winner)

PA-11:
leading candidates are:
Morelli (Trump)
McElwee (Trump)
Shecktor (Trump)

PA-12:
leading candidates are:
Vasilko (Trump)
Steigerwalt (Cruz)
Morrill (Trump)

PA-13:
leading candidates are:
Cox (district winner)
Ellis (district winner)
McMonagle ??

PA-16:
leading candidates are:
Brubaker (Cruz)
Denlinger (uncommitted)
Dumeyer (district winner)

PA-17:
leading candidates are:
Villano (Trump)
Bonkoski (Trump)
Snover (supports Trump, but will vote for district winner)

PA-18:
leading candidates are:
DePlato (Trump)
Uram (Trump)
Petrarca (Trump)