Republican Acela Corridor Tuesday results thread (all polls close at 8pm ET)

[Lyin' Steve]

Amusingly enough, the only place Cruz is even in second place in Connecticut that I could find is the town of Kent, where Kasich is at 58%, Cruz at 21%, _trump at 16%, and "other" at 5%. What a lovely place that must be

I'm going to ask this very nicely, but could you please please stop putting Trump in sub-text?  I usually like your posts but I just can't read them anymore, it's like they're littered with periods because I have to stop-start in my head when I read.

[Lyin' Steve]

Amusingly enough, the only place Cruz is even in second place in Connecticut that I could find is the town of Kent, where Kasich is at 58%, Cruz at 21%, _trump at 16%, and "other" at 5%. What a lovely place that must be

I'm going to ask this very nicely, but could you please please stop putting Trump in sub-text?  I usually like your posts but I just can't read them anymore, it's like they're littered with periods because I have to stop-start in my head when I read.

I'm not seeing a lot of capitalization of Trump's name in this thread (my subtexting of his name was a reaction to people constantly capitalizing his name a few months ago), so I'll quit for y'all's sake.

Thanks!

[Lyin' Steve]

Cruz's average tonight is 15%.

[Lyin' Steve]

With about half the votes in, these are now the leading unbound delegate candidates in every PA district:

PA-1:
Vogler (uncommitted, but will consider district winner)
Hackett (district winner)
Kaufer (considering district winner / Trump)

2/3

PA-2:
leading candidates are:
Havey (district winner)
Tucker (uncommitted)
Cohen (uncommitted)

1/3

PA-3:
leading candidates are:
English (Kasich)
Yates (uncommitted, but “strongly impressed by Kasich")
Ryan (supports Trump, but will vote for district winner)

1/1

PA-4:
leading candidates are:
Sacco (Trump)
Jansen (Trump)
Scaringi (Trump)

3/3

PA-5:
leading candidates are:
Klein (Trump)
McClure (Trump)
Khare (district winner)

3/3

PA-6:
Costello (district winner)
Lightcap (Trump)
Buckwalter (Trump)

3/3

PA-7:
Puppio (district winner)
Willert (district winner)
Miller ??

2/3

PA-8:
leading candidates are:
Worthington (Trump)
Casper (supports Trump, but will vote for district winner)
Loughery (uncommitted, but on Kasich PAC slate)

2/2

PA-9:
leading candidates are:
Ward (district winner)
Shuster (uncommitted)
Taylor (Trump)

2/3

PA-10:
leading candidates are:
Sides (Trump)
Scavello (district winner)
Pickett (district winner)

3/3

PA-11:
leading candidates are:
Morelli (Trump)
McElwee (Trump)
Shecktor (Trump)

3/3

PA-12:
leading candidates are:
Steigerwalt (Cruz)
Morrill (Trump)
Majernik (district winner)

2/2

PA-13:
leading candidates are:
Cox (district winner)
Ellis (district winner)
Casper (district winner)

3/3

PA-14:
Meloy (uncommitted)
Devanney (uncommitted)
Linton (Kasich)

0/2

PA-15:
leading candidates are:
Uehlinger (district winner)
Reber (Trump)
Kerwin (Trump)

3/3

PA-16:
leading candidates are:
Brubaker (Cruz)
Denlinger (uncommitted)
Dumeyer (district winner)

1/2

PA-17:
leading candidates are:
Villano (Trump)
Bonkoski (Trump)
Snover (supports Trump, but will vote for district winner)

3/3

PA-18:
leading candidates are:
Means (Cruz)
DePlato (Trump)
Petrarca (Trump)

2/3

Assuming Trump wins every CD (can't find results anywhere) this means he gets between 37 and 48 unpledged delegates.  Even with Cruz shenanigans like having his delegates lie and say they'd support Trump, then vote for Cruz on the first ballot, that's still at least 30 delegates.

So he has 981 delegates after tonight, and gets to 1237 with the following numbers:
Indiana:  39/57
Nebraska:  0/36
West Virginia:  34/34
Oregon:  12/28
Washington:  17/44
California:  100/172
Montana:  0/27
New Jersey:  51/51
New Mexico:  10/24
South Dakota:  0/29
Not hard numbers to get at all even if he wasn't outperforming expectations.  If he wins Indiana, it's over.  If he loses Indiana, he's probably still ok if he can get a dozen or so more uncommitted delegates.
Say hello to nominee Trump.  Boy, he surprised me.  I never thought he'd be able to get majorities in these northeastern states, but he's played this anti-Cruz strategy very, very smart.  I'm impressed.

[Lyin' Steve]

Looks like Trump sweeps every state except Rhode Island and will probably get 11 delegates there.  Compared to the FiveThirtyEight experts (real experts, they got polling company CEOs to do this not their BuzzFeed dropout staff) predictions:
CT 28/19
DE 16/15
MD 38/31
PA 17/16
RI 11/10
+19 for the night.  Their predictions have him at 1191, so if he simply matches expectations for the remainder of the primary he'll get 1210.  But he should easily be able to get 27 of the 146 unpledged delegates -- if the spreadsheet is correct he got 37 just from Pennsylvania tonight.

[Lyin' Steve]

Trump is getting presumptive nominee numbers at this point.  50-60%+ and his opponents around 10-20% is what Bill Clinton, John McCain and Mitt Romney were getting by the time they had basically won but hadn't yet forced out their opponents.

[Lyin' Steve]

Trump is getting presumptive nominee numbers at this point.  50-60%+ and his opponents around 10-20% is what Bill Clinton, John McCain and Mitt Romney were getting by the time they had basically won but hadn't yet forced out their opponents.

The people don't want contested conventions and delegate shenanigans. The voters are coalescing around Trump and the healing of the party has already begun. I expect Trump to exceed expectations in all future states due to the presumptive nominee effect.

Honestly, it's hard to say he doesn't deserve it.  He's run far and away the strongest, most effective and substantive campaign.  What was Cruz's substance?  What was his point, what was his message?  That he's a real conservative?  What even is Cruz's campaign slogan, is that what TrusTED is?  What are Cruz's campaign promises or big ideas?  I can't answer any of these questions.  I can answer all of them for Trump.
All Cruz really is is a default not-Trump choice.  Other than that, he's nothing.  People say he's tried oh-so-hard and campaigned oh-so-smart, but can you tell me one attack on Trump that's worked?  Can you tell me one thing he's said about himself that's helped him in any significant way, or any one performance or moment that's helped him?  The only thing I can think of is his CNBC debate performance.  Other than that, the main reason he survived while the others didn't is that he was more competent and disciplined than his opponents and that was enough to win Iowa and outlast Rubio.