Republican Acela Corridor Tuesday results thread (all polls close at 8pm ET)

[dax00]

If the above list is indeed anti-Trump, Trump's ceiling has already been lowered by 3. All 3 delegates from the 14th district have already been picked, and are all on the #NeverTrump list.

They might be on the #NeverTrump list because there's no one else to vote for in the 14th?

No, those are actually Never Trump, but in all likelihood, that will be Trump's worst district, so it's OK.

The spreadsheet appears to have got 3 write-in Trump delegates on it for PA-14. Anyone attest to legitimacy of said write-ins?

[dax00]

Looks like Cruz is staying over 10% in RI-1. Just under in RI-2.

[dax00]

Hope Cruz gets under 10% in RI statewide so he can't get any delegates there.

Do CT CDs matter with Trump clearly >50% statewide?

Yes, but in this case he'd be getting all 28 anyways.

[dax00]

So Trump is winning roughly 27 of the unpledged delegates from PA - on target.

[dax00]

Currently 29 of Trump supporters/Trump PA slate winning.

[dax00]

Congratulations to Sen. Rafael Cruz for an amazing 10.3% in Rhode Island - 3 delegates.

Does anyone have any inclination as to whether Cruz made it above 10% in both districts in RI?

11.18% in RI-1
9.67% in RI-2

[dax00]

So Trump gets the 2nd RI-02 delegate for 11 total from RI?

Yes. Trump 11, Kasich 5, Cruz 3.

[dax00]

Even in a victory scenario I don't think Trump carries Florida or Nevada.

Many of my (Nevadan) friends are young Hispanic Republicans who would vote Trump over Hillary.

[dax00]

Wow just wow!

I have little time or patience for Trump but he cleaned it up tonight (I just got off a plane and am trying to absorb all the results).

A contested convention just became much less likely.

Do we know the CD delegate split in MD?

Trump wins all 38.

[dax00]

Am I missing something here?  Mr. Morden?  Anyone?

You are well-informed. His 'model' is wack. I think mine (see signature) is much better.

[dax00]

My model is obviously superior. Models here are only useful for analysing the over/under on what Trump needs, not what we think he'd get. My model has Trump getting less than what I think he'd get (in all states) and is overall extremely reasonable (unlike Kenobi's).

Also, I understand naught of his spiel about Delaware, for it was winner-take-all and thus simple to predict/model. I'd like to add that one cannot be 'behind' in this type of model, for necessities change with unpredicted outcomes. With new results, one must adjust his model. Kenobi apparently was not adjusting his and so it made no sense considering the 'model's' assumption of Trump being behind. Delegates are only more costly if you are expected to earn them (and don't) in a particular state.

[dax00]

It's confusing, but I think the deal is that if all three candidates broke 10% in a congressional district, all three of them get delegates.  However, if one candidate breaks 67%, they're guaranteed two of the three delegates -- but they only get all of them if no other candidate breaks 10%.

The way I understood it, You could still win all 3 delegates if the vote were split 84-13-3 or something, due to proportionality.