Republican Acela Corridor Tuesday results thread (all polls close at 8pm ET)

[Badger]

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This is just the Northeast (four blue states and one swing state).  Wait until we go back to real America next week!!

Like Texas, Oklahoma and Utah?

[Badger]

I know that momentum is overrated this season, but does what happens today changes what will happen in Indiana?

Trump wins IN, narrowly, but essentially puts the race away.

Still have Cruz winning Indiana.

And you also "have" the Earth being only 6000 years old. kindly assert evidence in support of your posts. it'll be tough to adapt from sweeping baseless assertions i know, but give it a shot.

[Badger]

Seriously though, any delegate math estimates out there?

[Badger]

Seriously though, any delegate math estimates out there?

CNN has it at:

Trump: 914
Cruz:   563
Kasich: 147

Is that including tonight though? that's what i meant

[Badger]

I know that momentum is overrated this season, but does what happens today changes what will happen in Indiana?

Trump wins IN, narrowly, but essentially puts the race away.

Still have Cruz winning Indiana.

And you also "have" the Earth being only 6000 years old. kindly assert evidence in support of your posts. it'll be tough to adapt from sweeping baseless assertions i know, but give it a shot.

Well, patterns in the Northeast have been different to patterns elsewhere in the country the entire election, especially with regards to age. Undecideds in pretty much every Midwestern state to vote so far have broken very hard against _trump, and in places where it was clear who the main opponent was a large chunk of support for any tertiary candidate in the race went to that person too. _trump received 35% in WI, 36% in OH and MI, and 38% in IL, suggesting that if you think the change is limited to the Northeast _trump "should" be in the high 30s in Indiana (which is where polls conducted over the last week have shown him), and undecideds should mostly break Cruz. If you think the Cruz/Kasich drove undecided voters to _trump and is the reason they're doing so poorly tonight (and, furthermore, you think that will be reflected everywhere and isn't a Northeastern phenomenon), no polls have been conducted since then, so _trump may be stronger in Indiana now than he was a few days ago.

Tonight, undecideds broke for _trump. Very strongly. If you think that's because of momentum/the narrative shifting countrywide, and not limited to the Northeast, _trump will win Indiana. If you think it's because of location and not chronology, then Cruz wins Indiana. It's pretty simple.

Nah, that's a decent argument even if i'm not sure it'll hold water after tonight . but at least it's well thought out.

[Badger]

Hope Cruz gets under 10% in RI statewide so he can't get any delegates there.

Do CT CDs matter with Trump clearly >50% statewide?

Yes, but in this case he'd be getting all 28 anyways.

Seriously though, any delegate math estimates out there?

CT: Trump 28/28
DE: Trump 16/16
PA: Trump 17, Unpledged 54
MD: Probably of the 38 for Trump, but Kasick may win a CD in the suburbs (3 delegates then).
RI: Trump 13, Kasick 5, Cruz 1 or Trump 13, Kasick 6.

Thanks Max. It's probably too soon, but any firm PA delegate numbers?

[Badger]

Even in a victory scenario I don't think Trump carries Florida or Nevada.

Many of my (Nevadan) friends are young Hispanic Republicans who would vote Trump over Hillary.

Hate to break it t you , but your friends are an. EXTREME minority in their state .

[Badger]

Ben, are you seriously postulating that Trump gets little to none of the "unpledged" PA delegates, even among those who've publicly endorsed Trump or at least to support their district's winner? if so, Alcon's rght that your model is whack.

[Badger]

Updated national popular vote (Kasich finally catches up to Carson):

http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P16/R

Trump 40%
Cruz 27%
Kasich 14%
Rubio 14%
Carson 3%
Bush 1%

though sadly, he's still in 4th behind Rubio for number of delegates. he'll probably eventually surpass Rubio there if he stays in through CA though.