Republican Acela Corridor Tuesday results thread (all polls close at 8pm ET)

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Late deciders in Connecticut broke for Kasich 39% Trump 35% Cruz 16%

Fox News.

Aren't late deciders usually heavy anti-Trump?

Undecideds in polling always break heavy anti-_trump (outside of NY/NH/MA -- spot a pattern?), but self-identified "late deciders" in exit polls have had a more variable streak: _trump won them in Wisconsin, for instance. Exit polling that forces the person responding to resort to memory (as opposed to something self-explanatory, like race/gender/age/ideology) tends to be very weird.

EDIT: Also, the % white evangelical in Pennsylvania is very good news for Cruz (northern evangelicals have basically been a safe constituency for him, unlike southern evangelicals), though the "feelings if _trump is elected President" looks very bad for him. Guess we'll see if Pennsylvanian evangelicals are more like Michigan's or Virginia's very soon.

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it’s pretty clear that the exit poll has Trump averaging over 50% of the vote among the three states being polled.  Why else would the over # be closer to Trump than non-Trump?

Judging from these images, _trump's average across the states being polled (what are they, btw) is 56%

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Presumably, considering the concentration of anti-_trump in the DC suburbs, Baltimore would be more _trumpy than the state as a whole, correct?

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I keep thinking if it were Jeb Bush or Marco Rubio in Donald Trump's position tonight this race would already be over.

_trump is a very uniquely polarizing candidate.

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Another way age in Northeastern exits seems different than age everywhere else -- very strong positive correlation between youth and voting for Cruz in Connecticut. Didn't show up in Pennsylvania or Maryland; looking back, nonexistent in Massachusetts, but showed up in New Hampshire, and was weakly true in Vermont and New York. (In Vermont, in a pattern more typical of the South and West, younger voters were very strong for Rubio, who won under-45s them even as he was below the threshold statewide).

Seems to imply there's a very large number of young Republicans -- everywhere around the country, though least prominently in the Northeast -- simply voting for the prevailing national anti-_trump rather than their ideological preferences (in preference to the local anti-_trump if that countervails the national one), whatever those might be. (In 2012, they loved Paul, suggesting libertarianism has a lot of appeal to this demographic).

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I know that momentum is overrated this season, but does what happens today changes what will happen in Indiana?

Trump wins IN, narrowly, but essentially puts the race away.

Still have Cruz winning Indiana.

And you also "have" the Earth being only 6000 years old. kindly assert evidence in support of your posts. it'll be tough to adapt from sweeping baseless assertions i know, but give it a shot.

Well, patterns in the Northeast have been different to patterns elsewhere in the country the entire election, especially with regards to age. Undecideds in pretty much every Midwestern state to vote so far have broken very hard against _trump, and in places where it was clear who the main opponent was a large chunk of support for any tertiary candidate in the race went to that person too. _trump received 35% in WI, 36% in OH and MI, and 38% in IL, suggesting that if you think the change is limited to the Northeast _trump "should" be in the high 30s in Indiana (which is where polls conducted over the last week have shown him), and undecideds should mostly break Cruz. If you think the Cruz/Kasich drove undecided voters to _trump and is the reason they're doing so poorly tonight (and, furthermore, you think that will be reflected everywhere and isn't a Northeastern phenomenon), no polls have been conducted since then, so _trump may be stronger in Indiana now than he was a few days ago.

Tonight, undecideds broke for _trump. Very strongly. If you think that's because of momentum/the narrative shifting countrywide, and not limited to the Northeast, _trump will win Indiana. If you think it's because of location and not chronology, then Cruz wins Indiana. It's pretty simple.

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Halvorson winning on the back of the _trump wave is a profoundly amusing result, since the guy has said in the past he would join the (monolithically Cruz-supporting) House Freedom Caucus if he were actually elected. The primary is the real election in this district, of course.

Goes to demonstrate how, outside of the presidential race, _trump has utterly failed in changing the nature of the insurgency within the Republican Party. Where are all the _trumpist candidates? Hell, where are the candidates at least positioning themselves as _trumpist for the sake of an election? The only ones I can think of, in the entire country, are Mike Pape and Renee Ellmers, and both of them are, at least according to CW, massive underdogs.

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Amusingly enough, the only place Cruz is even in second place in Connecticut that I could find is the town of Kent, where Kasich is at 58%, Cruz at 21%, _trump at 16%, and "other" at 5%. What a lovely place that must be

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Where is the "what have I done?" Christie?

Permanently out of a job after January 19, 2018.

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Amusingly enough, the only place Cruz is even in second place in Connecticut that I could find is the town of Kent, where Kasich is at 58%, Cruz at 21%, _trump at 16%, and "other" at 5%. What a lovely place that must be

I'm going to ask this very nicely, but could you please please stop putting Trump in sub-text?  I usually like your posts but I just can't read them anymore, it's like they're littered with periods because I have to stop-start in my head when I read.

I'm not seeing a lot of capitalization of Trump's name in this thread (my subtexting of his name was a reaction to people constantly capitalizing his name a few months ago), so I'll quit for y'all's sake.

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Trump is very incoherent right now.

Unnecessarily verbose

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If he gets a similar resort boost in the general, could that put him over the top in FL and NV in a competitive race?  Trouble for him is that both states are also very Hispanic in the general electorate.

Primary electorates (for both parties) and general electorates are not similar. Trump is significantly weaker in both FL and NV than generic R because of how much weaker he is with the Hispanic vote (especially in Florida, which is home to one of the Republican-voting groups that Trump collapses with -- the Cubans).

Even in a victory scenario I don't think Trump carries Florida or Nevada.

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Even in a victory scenario I don't think Trump carries Florida or Nevada.

Many of my (Nevadan) friends are young Hispanic Republicans who would vote Trump over Hillary.

Anecdote isn't evidence. You know one Russian-American Republican, I presume (me), and I'm strongly anti-Trump; nevertheless, the community as a whole gave Trump over 80% of the vote. Essentially all polling has shown that Trump would receive less than half of the Hispanic support Mitt Romney got, and roughly a quarter of what George Bush got.

This is especially the case in Florida, where there is a community of Hispanic Republicans and they despise Trump. Nevada Hispanic Republicans are more likely to be individual contrarians who would consider pulling the lever for Trump; Trump loses there by ginning up turnout among normal, Democratic-leaning (or not even that, just very anti-Trump) Hispanics.

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Even in a victory scenario I don't think Trump carries Florida or Nevada.

Many of my (Nevadan) friends are young Hispanic Republicans who would vote Trump over Hillary.

Yes, but as Hispanic Republicans, they are already Republicans. That's not the type of voter he needs to convince.

True, but they could have been on the #NeverTrump bandwagon.

Arguably, to win, Trump needs to convince only the #NeverTrump bunch. He does not need to reach out to the Democrats. He's already got a number of them in states where it counts (OH, PA, MI).

I can tell you from the ground here in Ohio that, whatever "Democrats" Trump may have, there are zero people who voted for Obama in 2012 who will vote for Trump. A small number who were particularly enthused to vote for Obama specifically may sit the election out, but nobody is voting for Trump.