Republican Acela Corridor Tuesday results thread (all polls close at 8pm ET)

[Wisconsin+17]

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Actually, Trump managed to lose ground. He needed all the delegates tonight. Did well everywhere but Rhode Island.

My original tabs put him about 50 short of the nomination.

[Wisconsin+17]

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He needed to be at 1k after April and the NE.  Getting zero delegates in Colorado and Wyoming and losing Wisconsin bigly hurt him badly for the nomination.

Coming into WI and CO put him right at 1235. Right now I have him at 1185, falling short of the nomination.

I had him winning every delegate tonight and 75 in New York. So my prediction ran about spot on.

[Wisconsin+17]

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I ran off the delegate totals and estimated that Trump would be regionally stronger in the NE, with additional Kasich support and Cruz support. You're right, he wasn't expected to do as well in RI, but that was the only path I saw to him getting to 1237.

I was not far off. I had him under in NY and so the numbers come out correct. He still needed to be at 1k to be on course for the nomination.

[Wisconsin+17]

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538 has him winning Indiana. I do not. I was closer than 538's predictions.

[Wisconsin+17]

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Given Trump's inability to retain his own delegates, I can't see him picking up the unpledged PA delegates.

[Wisconsin+17]

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Again, no I'm not. Trump needs 1237. To get there, there are several paths, but all of them have him at 1k delegates at this point in the race.

This is why he threw his trumpertantrum over Colorado's delegates. He did the math and realized that even with a sweep tonight - which he was denied, he would fall short.

[Wisconsin+17]

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Your two statements contradict each other. If he's under 1237 pledged delegates, he will not be the nominee.

Right now, he's odds on to fall short. He's hardly the 'presumptive nominee', less than 50 percent chance of taking the nomination.

[Wisconsin+17]

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He needs to get 1237 pledged delegates on the first ballot. If he doesn't get them he will not be the nominee.

That is the problem that Trump has at this point. Enough Republicans will not vote for him and will not support him.

The other problem is that he's irreparably damaged at this point. There has never been a nominee with fewer than 50 percent of the overall republican votes.

McCain got 52 percent. Romney also got 52. Bush Jr got 62. Dole, 58. Bush Sr. 68 percent, Reagan, 60 percent. Ford got 53 percent.

68, 62, 60 were winners. 58, 52, 52, 53 were all losers.

Basically, Trump is looking at a Goldwaterish landslide loss, just looking at the ballot boxes.

[Wisconsin+17]

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One, Kasich delegates are not going Trump. Cruz has already secured them. Same with Rubio.

Two, I think that the vast majority of unpledged will go Cruz. Cruz probably already has a plan to win them over. Trump can't keep his own delegates. Why would this change now?

Trump has to win on the first ballot, or he will lose and the Republican party will choose someone else.

Trump has what, 37 percent of Republican voters now? That's why he has to win on the first ballot from pledged delegates. It's also why he's gonna get screwed when delegates are free to vote for whomever they want.

[Wisconsin+17]

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Because my model predicts that Trump falls about 50 delegates short of the nomination.

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The delegates have to come from somewhere. I didn't feel comfortable predicting a sweep of NY, and I felt more comfortable in predicting a sweep tonight. I come out just about right, and more right than 538.

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So far it's called Wyoming (Cruz sweep), Colorado (Cruz sweep), Wisconsin within a point, and got the delegate totals correct for NY and the corridor tonight.

You're right, that perhaps Indiana will be a win for Trump, but I'm predicting a Cruz victory here.

What were your predictions tonight?

[Wisconsin+17]

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Would we have predicted after Florida, South Carolina and Super Tuesday that Trump would still be fighting off Cruz?

They are unpledged meaning they don't have to cast their vote until the convention. Lots can change in the meantime.

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If it goes to the convention, (and it should), lots can happen. PA vote was today. Convention won't be until August. That's 4, 5 months.

Trump has to win 1237 before the convention in pledged delegates. If it's even *close*, the majority of Republicans who did not vote for Trump will want their say.

They will also be more likely to dump Trump because of his inability to close it out. We shall see.

Indiana will be crucial. If Cruz wins we'll be going to a contested nomination.

[Wisconsin+17]

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I'm sorry, the math was done long before Wisconsin, and before Wyoming and Colorado. Trump has been in trouble for a long time, since he lost Ohio to Kasich. Said it then, say it now.

We are just about done the primary season. Romney had it wrapped up by Wisconsin, and his run was very late. Trump has not managed to do that. By losing in Wisconsin, he assured that he would not mathematically be able to clinch pledged delegates before California. Cruz now has no incentive to drop before California.

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You're assuming that each state is linked to each other. I am not. I am treating each state as it's own mini-election. Trump's strongest states are in this corridor, ergo I assign delegates to his strong states before assigning them to his weak states.

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It's not nonsense. I'm sorry you can't understand that Trump has been behind since he lost Ohio. Those delegates need to be made up. It's like Alice and Wonderland. He has to run twice as hard to catch up.

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That it predicted the delegate counts correctly is a solid indicator that my model is working well.

[Wisconsin+17]

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Estimating above and below is a good way to erase bias. Small errors consistently on one side of the line will inflate totals. I agree that it was unlikely he would sweep Delaware, but in the end, my model predicted he'd be about 50 short.

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I have him at 162 in CA right now, but I don't have him winning Indiana. Indiana is closer to Wisconsin than it is to New York, and Trump has not done well in this area.

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That's silly logic. If Trump were already ahead, he would continue to be ahead. The reason the sweep doesn't mean that Trump is ahead is because he was behind.

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Yes, it does because he lost delegates that a sweep would have gotten him. Every delegate counts. I said the same after New York and folks laughed at me then.

1 delegate in Delaware is no more nor less valuable than any delegate anywhere else. This is why CO and WY and WI cost Trump so much.

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If I don't assign delegates to Delaware than he's even further behind. The baseline is 1237.

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I'm saying he's about 50 behind. The reason I say that is because I had him at 1k to be 'on track' for the nomination, and it's also why I said that Ohio was crucial.

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In the end what matters is the delegate total, which was spot on. I was low in New York and high in Delaware and the two counterbalance each other.