Republican Acela Corridor Tuesday results thread (all polls close at 8pm ET)

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Since I guess it’s safe to assume that Trump will win all five states, the main thing I’ll actually be watching is who wins the delegate races in Pennsylvania.  PA will represent the largest catch of unbound delegates in the country, given the state’s loophole primary.  Note that I linked to the state’s official election returns site in the OP.  I assume they’ll tell us who is winning each individual delegate race, but I don’t know.  If you find another site with that info, post it here, and I’ll add a link in the OP.

In the “Delegate fight” thread, Classic Conservative found this useful Google doc, which allegedly provides the loyalties of all the delegate candidates:

I found this online about the PA Unbound Delegates
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1NfzyoWfwqjrYbc5Xqb9lyerxztNxLuZDzwPBarYZJFA/htmlview?pli=1

But we also have other lists.  E.g.:

http://www.pennlive.com/politics/index.ssf/2016/04/breakdown_of_gop_delegates_sup.html

And then the Cruz and Trump campaigns have their own list of delegate candidates that they want people to vote for:

Extremely helpful on PA. Awesome find.

For me, the three biggest questions are: 1) Whether Trump gets to 10 of 19 in Rhode Island, ironically the state he is doing best in; 2) How many MD CDs go Cruz or Kasich inside the Beltway; and 3) Whether Trump ends up above 50% in CT and takes all the delegates (he likely will).

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Actually, Trump managed to lose ground. He needed all the delegates tonight. Did well everywhere but Rhode Island.

My original tabs put him about 50 short of the nomination.

Trump surely didn't lose ground tonight. 538 has him ahead of pace to get to 1237 by five (5) delegates.

The Donald took 110 of the 118 delegates tonight, cleaner than as clean of a sweep that was realistically possible. (I had him maxed out at about 109).

The most optimistic of projections did not have Trump getting to 11 delegates in Rhode Island. I figured the best Trump could get out of RI tonight was 10 delegates. Cruz managed to screw up CD-2 so badly that he fell under 10% and Trump got an unexpected extra delegate.

Trump could not have had a better night than he did tonight. The math in Rhode Island made a clean sweep impossible.

It's kind of ironic though, Trump's best state this cycle is Rhode Island (64%). He only took the delegation 11-8 due to how RI apportions its delegates.

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I ran off the delegate totals and estimated that Trump would be regionally stronger in the NE, with additional Kasich support and Cruz support. You're right, he wasn't expected to do as well in RI, but that was the only path I saw to him getting to 1237.

I was not far off. I had him under in NY and so the numbers come out correct. He still needed to be at 1k to be on course for the nomination.

But, again, unless I'm missing something, that makes no sense.  You're saying he fell short of what he "needed," but you had him winning all delegates in Rhode Island.  A world in which Donald Trump wins Rhode Island by enough to win all of its delegates, is a world where Donald Trump obviously wins California and Indiana by enough that it doesn't matter.  You're incorrectly modeling what Trump "needs."

Trump needed 90% of the vote to get all the delegates in RI under their formula. That's hard to get even in a dictatorship for crying out loud. There's a definite math fail here.

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the idea that trump underperformed in Rhode Island because he didn't get the 67% he needed in both districts to get a sweep is silly; especially since making a landslide prediction like that based on absolutely no evidence for it (no polls had him that high, he were in the high 50s sure but he'd have needed literally every undecided voter to get to the 2/3rds mark and that almost happened, surprisingly).  Its almost as if you didn't actually look to see what the delegate rules where in every state before you began randomly giving numbers to people...

He needed 90% in both CDs and statewide to sweep or he needed Cruz AND Kasich under 10%. That wasn't happening. Ever.

He overperformed by getting 11 delegates instead of 10 in my opinion doing the math, which seems to be a fail here.

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It's confusing, but I think the deal is that if all three candidates broke 10% in a congressional district, all three of them get delegates.  However, if one candidate breaks 67%, they're guaranteed two of the three delegates -- but they only get all of them if no other candidate breaks 10%.

The way I understood it, You could still win all 3 delegates if the vote were split 84-13-3 or something, due to proportionality.

Even then, statewide, it would have been split 9 Trump, 1 Kasich for the state delegation. Only way Trump clean sweeps is if both Cruz and Kasich were held under 10% or Trump got over 90% of the vote in BOTH CDs and statewide, which essentially would have done the same thing.

It is utter Fantasyland to think that that was possible in a contested primary.