UK parliamentary boundary review 2016-2018

[Harry Hayfield]

The initial suggestions by the Boundary Commissions will be published in the week starting September 12th with England starting off (then Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland) which will then start a six month response period. It is that period that members of the public can make submissions during (but not before)

[Harry Hayfield]

Updated schedule for release of initial recommendations:
Northern Ireland: September 6th (specifically 0000 BST on the Northern Ireland Boundary Commission website)
England and Wales: September 13th
Scotland: October 8th

After each release there will be a six month consultation period during which public inquiries will be held along with written and online submissions. I will certainly try and attend the public inquiry held in Swansea which will look in detail at the proposals for Powys and Dyfed and either congratulate the Commission or make some alternative suggestions to them

[Harry Hayfield]

The Provisional Recommendations for Northern Ireland are in, and they're... different.  You can access the report, an interactive map, etc. here.

I have Sinn Fein winning seven seats (although four could be won by Unionists if there were a single candidate), the DUP win seven, the SDLP two and Lady Hermon holds North Down.

[Harry Hayfield]

Anthony Wells of UK Polling Report has come up with the following estimates

Conservatives 320 seats (including the Speaker) -27 proportionally
Labour 203 seats -22 proportionally
Liberal Democrats 3 seats -4 proportionally
United Kingdom Independence Party 1 unchanged
Plaid Cymru 3 seats unchanged

The suggestion is that Caroline Lucas would not win Brighton North (Con 32%, Lab 31%, Green 27%)