2048 Presidential Election.

[JohnathanOHughes]

Predictions.

[JohnathanOHughes]

Make sure that the electoral votes are the same as 2012.

[JohnathanOHughes]

Example:
Democratic Ticket:
P- Governor Thomas Shearson of Vermont
VP- Senator Margret Tellinghouse of South Carolina

Republican Ticket:
P- Vice President Edward Benson of Indiana
VP- Senator Juan Martinez of Texas

Results:
x= winner
Shearson/Tellinghouse: 272 Electoral Votes (49% of popular vote) x
Benson/Martinez: 266 Electoral Votes (51% of popular vote)

 

[NHI]

I believe the map will be radically different from 2016. The Republicans will be stronger in the east and the Democrats will be stronger in the west.

I think you're right.

[Sir Mohamed]

Just a suggestion: a popular president gets reelected.

✓ President Hannah Weinberger (D-NV)/Vice President James Blumenthal (D-FL): 54.0% and ~370 EVs.
Governor Maxwell Haywood (R-WI)/Representative Susana DeSantis (R-AZ): 45.5% and ~170 EVs.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Just a suggestion: a popular president gets reelected.

✓ President Hannah Weinberger (D-NV)/Vice President James Blumenthal (D-FL): 54.0% and ~370 EVs.
Governor Maxwell Haywood (R-WI)/Representative Susana DeSantis (R-AZ): 45.5% and ~170 EVs.

Interesting...Oregon being at least R+4

[libertpaulian]

Open seat at the end of President Tom Cotton's 2nd term:

Juliana Salazar (NM-SEN)/Isaac Washington* (MS-GOV) 278 EV 49.4%
Vice President Elise Stefanik**/Bill Anderson*** (MN-SEN) 260 EV 49.1%

*1st black governor of Mississippi, elected in 2043 and reelected in 2047
**Formerly NY-GOV
***Formerly President, United Teleportation Workers of America

In short, Republicans make peace with unions and Democrats make peace with Mormons, parts of the energy industry, and most libertarians by 2030ish.  MT and WY eventually go the way of Colorado.

So, by "make peace" with libertarians, the Dems essentially quit their gun control crusade?

[RFayette]

Open seat at the end of President Tom Cotton's 2nd term:

Juliana Salazar (NM-SEN)/Isaac Washington* (MS-GOV) 278 EV 49.4%
Vice President Elise Stefanik**/Bill Anderson*** (MN-SEN) 260 EV 49.1%

*1st black governor of Mississippi, elected in 2043 and reelected in 2047
**Formerly NY-GOV
***Formerly President, United Teleportation Workers of America

In short, Republicans make peace with unions and Democrats make peace with Mormons, parts of the energy industry, and most libertarians by 2030ish.  MT and WY eventually go the way of Colorado.

The only way this could happen is if climate change models dramatically overestimated warning (they have over the past 2 decades, but it's unknown whether this trend will continue).  I just don't see environmentalism going away on the Dem sides.

[Adam Griffin]

Make sure that the electoral votes are the same as 2012.

I'm not sure if you meant that the overall EV margin should look the same as it did in 2012 or to use 2011 redistricting EV totals, but I did the former:

DEM: 332 EV 53.7%
GOP: 206 EV 44.9%

[President Johnson]

It depends. I have three scenarios: First, an open and close election. Second and third, each with a popular Republican or Democratic president to be reelected. However, I think that urbanisation is a key to answer that question. States with large metropolitan areas will be more Democratic unless there is large electorate from the countryside to overcome this advantage and turn Republican.

An open election; very close.

Governor Richard E. Johnson (D-CA)/Businessman Gordon F. Smith (D-IL): approx. 300 EV. (50.11%)
Senator Peter Green (R-MI)/Former Governor Gerald V. Miller (R-SC): approx. 240 EV. (48.75%)

Republican president gets reelected in landslide:

President Clark Douglas (R-OR)/Vice President Sarah Hyden (R-FL): approx. 420 EV. (59.00%)
Governor Ricardo Morse (D-NV)/Former Attorney General Frederick Hart (D-PA): approx. 120 EV. (38.92%)

Democratic president gets reelected in a landslide:

President Richard E. Johnson (D-CA)/Vice President Gordon F. Smith (D-IL): approx. 475 EV. (61.11%)
Businesswoman Nancy Long (R-OR)/Senator Michael Owens (R-OH): approx. 65 EV. (37.35%)

[SATW]

Governor Nolan Widmark, D-Minnesota/ U.S. Senator Andres Sanchez, D-Nevada: 356 EVs; 53%
U.S. Senator Miles Connally, R-Ohio/ Fmr Governor Sandra Giamagglio, R-New Hampshire: 182 EVs; 45%
Other: 2%

After 8 years of a Republican President, Eric Flanagan of Virginia, the nation wanted a change. Charismatic, and extremely progressive, Governor of Minnesota, Nolan Widmark, was able to present his progressive economic proposals in an electable manner and stunned GOP establishment favorite, Sen. Mikes Connally of Ohio.

Andres Sanchez, a socially conservative democrat, was the Dem VP and his presence on the campaign trail helped tip over swing voters from the south his party's way.

Connally was pro-choice and a general moderate on most issues. Sandra Giamagglio was also a moderate. This was seen as a distancing from conservative President Flanagan and upset conservative voters.

[Pragmatic Conservative]

Republican 297 EV 50.7%
Democrats 241 EV 47.6%

[Goldwater64]

At first I laughed at this topic but the year you mention is significant.

First demographics play a huge role in politics.
In 1984 there was a book written about the baby boomers consumption spending predicting a boom from 1984 to about 2005. He was right.

Then it was written there would be a bust from 2005 to 2024 until millennials overcame the decline of baby boomer spending

In 2024 to 2042 there will be a boom of consumption spending which might lead to a stock market rally and housing boom as millennials reach their peak spending years.

By about 2048 which you speak of;
there will be a considerable decline as to expectations, and humans who often react too quickly to otherwise normal transition periods. They will overcompensate by voting in an elaborate character that is neither Trump like or Hillary like that will do more damage to America's psyche than otherwise perceived as a result of grossly exaggerated self-centered behavior. Good luck!

[AGA]

[JustinTimeCuber]

[Mayflower1978]

Actually Midwestern States/Rust Belt are Leaning towards Republican while Northeastern, West Coast, Southwestern and the South are Leaning Towards Democratic.

[Mayflower1978]

[P. Clodius Pulcher did nothing wrong]

I see the Southwest (mainly AZ and TX) and the South (GA, NC, MS, VA) becoming more Democratic, with the Midwest (OH, WI, IL) and Northeast (ME, CT, RI) becoming more Republican. The Flyovers (MT, WY, NE, etc) and the Northwest will stay the same.

That is, unless the trends we're seeing suddenly change course.

[Kingpoleon]

229: Governor Saira Blair(R-WV)/Senator Mia Love(R-UT)
229: Governor Pete Buttigieg(D-IN)/Senator Henry Carter(D-GA)
80: Tossup

[P. Clodius Pulcher did nothing wrong]

Nail-biter election between a charismatic moderate Democrat and a moderate Republican to succeed a popular Republican incumbent. Also, Puerto Rico!

United States presidential election, 2048


Sen. Marc Peña [D-FL] / Fmr. Gov. Frances Vercellotti [D-VA] — ~280 EV, 49.04% PV
Fmr. Gov. Jordan Merkley [R-MO] / Rep. Josué Mendoza [D-CA] — ~260 EV, 49,01% PV

[Blackacre]

(ignore the Maine districts, they don't count for anything, I just couldn't get the calculator to abandon them and make Maine only have 3 EVs)

Senator Taylor Whyson (R-TX)/Governor Brian McHenry (R-MN) - 276 Electoral Votes - 48.9% of PV
Governor Calvin Buckeye (D-OH)/House Minority Leader James Scalp (D-MO) - 262 Electoral Votes - 45.2% of PV

Senator Whyson was elected to succeed the outgoing two-term Democratic President and become the 50th President of the United States. In doing so, he made history as not only the first Republican to win without Ohio (a state decided by a single point despite a favourite son on the ticket) but also the first Republican to win Minnesota in 76 years. Not even the 48th President, Cory Gardner, could pull that off in either of his victories. The tipping-point state was little Connecticut, decided by less than .4 points.

After being out of power for eight years, Republicans return to the Presidency. Despite Buckeye's well-organised campaign, it was maligned by a terrorist attack in St. Louis, Missouri, and the current administration's decision to not go to war over it. While the Democratic line was that intelligence remained mixed on the origins of the attack, Whyson pointed his finger directly at Palestine and promised to retaliate. The Governor's unpresidential handling of the attack didn't exactly help.

However, what the Republicans did not get was the trifecta that they did not have since 2018. While the Republicans were able to pick up the House and Senate in 2046, their control was tenuous at best. A successful check-and-balance argument from the Democrats (opinion polls showed Whyson up by up to 8 points in October, before the debates) and strong Democratic Senate candidates allowed the Democrats to go from having 48 Senate seats to 53. Democratc picked up seats in New York, Wyoming, Arizona, and Nebraska, and got their 53rd seat in Texas. President-elect Whyson will be replaced by the appointee of the state's Democratic Governor.

There are already musings over 2052, especially if the outgoing administration proves to have been right in its decision to not go to war. The consensus is that the nomination belongs to Vice President and Senator-elect Spenser Dettsen (D-NY) if he wants it.
(names changed to protect the innocent)

A word on the state changes:
Florida remained a swing state, the balance between its white and hispanic populations cancelling each other out. It has, however, become less elastic.

Texas has become a lean-Democratic state, though the two parties trade Governorships frequently; Abbott was the last Governor in that state to be re-elected. It went for Weiss after going Democratic three times in a row because of a favourite son effect.

Georgia is a majority-minority state and votes solidly Democratic. North Carolina is a swing state; while it was trending D, in truth it has voted for the winner of every Presidential election since 2016. At the state level, the Republican party is building itself back up; though the state has two Democratic Senators, it just elected its first Republican Governor since McCrory.

Wisconsin is a likely-Republican state. Michigan leans Republican. Minnesota has leaned Democratic until now. Pennsylvania is pure tossup. Connecticut has grown more conservative and is now a lean-D state rather than safe D. Maine is safe Republican.

Arizona is likely D. Wyoming and Montana have become more metropolitan in the same vein as Colorado and are trending Democratic. Wyoming elected its first Democratic senator in a long, long time. Rhode Island is now the least populous state in the union.

[Maxwell]

Interesting people are looking at Oregon becoming a Lean R state.

[President of the great nation of 🏳️‍⚧️]

(ignore the Maine districts, they don't count for anything, I just couldn't get the calculator to abandon them and make Maine only have 3 EVs)

There.

[Mayflower1978]

(ignore the Maine districts, they don't count for anything, I just couldn't get the calculator to abandon them and make Maine only have 3 EVs)

Senator Taylor Whyson (R-TX)/Governor Brian McHenry (R-MN) - 276 Electoral Votes - 48.9% of PV
Governor Calvin Buckeye (D-OH)/House Minority Leader James Scalp (D-MO) - 262 Electoral Votes - 45.2% of PV

Senator Whyson was elected to succeed the outgoing two-term Democratic President and become the 50th President of the United States. In doing so, he made history as not only the first Republican to win without Ohio (a state decided by a single point despite a favourite son on the ticket) but also the first Republican to win Minnesota in 76 years. Not even the 48th President, Cory Gardner, could pull that off in either of his victories. The tipping-point state was little Connecticut, decided by less than .4 points.

After being out of power for eight years, Republicans return to the Presidency. Despite Buckeye's well-organised campaign, it was maligned by a terrorist attack in St. Louis, Missouri, and the current administration's decision to not go to war over it. While the Democratic line was that intelligence remained mixed on the origins of the attack, Whyson pointed his finger directly at Palestine and promised to retaliate. The Governor's unpresidential handling of the attack didn't exactly help.

However, what the Republicans did not get was the trifecta that they did not have since 2018. While the Republicans were able to pick up the House and Senate in 2046, their control was tenuous at best. A successful check-and-balance argument from the Democrats (opinion polls showed Whyson up by up to 8 points in October, before the debates) and strong Democratic Senate candidates allowed the Democrats to go from having 48 Senate seats to 53. Democratc picked up seats in New York, Wyoming, Arizona, and Nebraska, and got their 53rd seat in Texas. President-elect Whyson will be replaced by the appointee of the state's Democratic Governor.

There are already musings over 2052, especially if the outgoing administration proves to have been right in its decision to not go to war. The consensus is that the nomination belongs to Vice President and Senator-elect Spenser Dettsen (D-NY) if he wants it.
(names changed to protect the innocent)

A word on the state changes:
Florida remained a swing state, the balance between its white and hispanic populations cancelling each other out. It has, however, become less elastic.

Texas has become a lean-Democratic state, though the two parties trade Governorships frequently; Abbott was the last Governor in that state to be re-elected. It went for Weiss after going Democratic three times in a row because of a favourite son effect.

Georgia is a majority-minority state and votes solidly Democratic. North Carolina is a swing state; while it was trending D, in truth it has voted for the winner of every Presidential election since 2016. At the state level, the Republican party is building itself back up; though the state has two Democratic Senators, it just elected its first Republican Governor since McCrory.

Wisconsin is a likely-Republican state. Michigan leans Republican. Minnesota has leaned Democratic until now. Pennsylvania is pure tossup. Connecticut has grown more conservative and is now a lean-D state rather than safe D. Maine is safe Republican.

Arizona is likely D. Wyoming and Montana have become more metropolitan in the same vein as Colorado and are trending Democratic. Wyoming elected its first Democratic senator in a long, long time. Rhode Island is now the least populous state in the union.

Why Georgia a Majority-Minority? (No Offense, I'm not trying to be racist. Racism is Cancer).

[Mayflower1978]

I see the Southwest (mainly AZ and TX) and the South (GA, NC, MS, VA) becoming more Democratic, with the Midwest (OH, WI, IL) and Northeast (ME, CT, RI) becoming more Republican. The Flyovers (MT, WY, NE, etc) and the Northwest will stay the same.

That is, unless the trends we're seeing suddenly change course.

AZ and TX are leaning towards Democratic because of Large Growing Hispanic Population and also many Young Texans are more Liberal Democrat. also South might go back to Democratic Again because Young Southerners are more Liberal and More Voting for Democratic than the Older Generation Southerners are.