Should Cruz drop out if he loses IN?

[Young Conservative]

Nope, Trump can't clinch before California.

Cruz should fight on to the convention.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Again, what would Cruz dropping out actually accomplish at this point?  It's not like he's clearing the field for an anti-Trump.

[Lyin' Steve]

"That blast gave us enough radiation, at best we'd only last a couple days... so I'm taking her in low, when we're over target, climbing to 5,000 feet.  Bombs are set to go at 5,000.  We'll go with them.  Okay?"

"What the hell.  There's nothing to go home to anyway."

[Wisconsin+17]

And here I thought you liked Trump.

[Meclazine for Israel]

Yes, but he wont.

Whilst ever there is a possibility, then he will hang in there.

[Vosem]

The fact that Ted Cruz thinks naming Carly Fiorina as his VP is an effective form of pandering just perfectly illustrates his political ineptitude.  Sad!  He should have dropped out after announcing his low-energy collusion with Joan Cusack.

The Blue Avatars still don't realize just how big a disaster Cruz would be in a general election. Trump is a high risk/high reward candidate, while Cruz is a high risk/low reward candidate.

You're right about Cruz being a high risk/low reward candidate, absolutely, but you're dead wrong on Trump. He's a high risk/no reward candidate.

Anyway, no, Cruz should keep going unless such a moment is reached when Trump cannot mathematically be stopped on the first ballot. In the (unlikely, but still reasonably possible) event of Cruz winning Indiana, Cruz can still totally win the nomination. It was demonstrated in South Carolina that Bernie's coalition was insufficient to win the Democratic nomination. He's been continuing because the chance on paper exists and he wants to influence the party. This has still not been demonstrated for Cruz, and there's lots of precedent for candidates continuing even afte rit has been.

[Ronnie]

Vosem, you said a couple days ago that Cruz is favored to win in Indiana.  What made you change your mind?

[Fargobison]

The fact that Ted Cruz thinks naming Carly Fiorina as his VP is an effective form of pandering just perfectly illustrates his political ineptitude.  Sad!  He should have dropped out after announcing his low-energy collusion with Joan Cusack.

The Blue Avatars still don't realize just how big a disaster Cruz would be in a general election. Trump is a high risk/high reward candidate, while Cruz is a high risk/low reward candidate.

Cruz is more low risk, low reward. He would lose in a boring 2012 esque election but he would lose hitting Clinton from the right.

Trump has the potential to seriously damage the party, he has no discipline and really no clue in regards to so many issues, especially conservative issues.

[Vosem]

Vosem, you said a couple days ago that Cruz is favored to win in Indiana.  What made you change your mind?

I said this prior to the mid-Atlantic primary; some of the patterns shown seem to indicate Trump has developed real momentum (especially the results in rural Pennsylvania as compared to Upstate New York very clearly show Trump gained a significant amount of support over the course of that week). So I now think Trump is likelier than not to carry Indiana; as I've said before, demographically certain tendencies in the Northeast (especially age) are totally different than in the rest of the country, which means it's not impossible for his success there not to translate to the rest of the country, but momentum being limited to just one region is extremely unusual in what is effectively a two-candidate presidential primary.

The Clout Research poll has made me less certain, because it shows basically no change from the pre-mid-Atlantic numbers. If we accept it as correct (Clout has very little track record, but what exists is generally pretty good), it can indicate one of three scenarios: either that the momentum was never real outside the Northeast (in which case Cruz is probably on track to win Indiana as he was beforehand), that the Fiorina choice actually worked and has caused support to return to Cruz (in which case Cruz is probably on track to win Indiana), or that the shift that occurred in the Northeast was in the way undecideds behave on Election Day, in which case Trump is on track to win Indiana regardless.

The other scenario, of course, is that the Clout poll is simply wrong. Clout is no fabled gold standard.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Vosem, you said a couple days ago that Cruz is favored to win in Indiana.  What made you change your mind?

I said this prior to the mid-Atlantic primary; some of the patterns shown seem to indicate Trump has developed real momentum (especially the results in rural Pennsylvania as compared to Upstate New York very clearly show Trump gained a significant amount of support over the course of that week). So I now think Trump is likelier than not to carry Indiana; as I've said before, demographically certain tendencies in the Northeast (especially age) are totally different than in the rest of the country, which means it's not impossible for his success there not to translate to the rest of the country, but momentum being limited to just one region is extremely unusual in what is effectively a two-candidate presidential primary.

The Clout Research poll has made me less certain, because it shows basically no change from the pre-mid-Atlantic numbers. If we accept it as correct (Clout has very little track record, but what exists is generally pretty good), it can indicate one of three scenarios: either that the momentum was never real outside the Northeast (in which case Cruz is probably on track to win Indiana as he was beforehand), that the Fiorina choice actually worked and has caused support to return to Cruz (in which case Cruz is probably on track to win Indiana), or that the shift that occurred in the Northeast was in the way undecideds behave on Election Day, in which case Trump is on track to win Indiana regardless.

The other scenario, of course, is that the Clout poll is simply wrong. Clout is no fabled gold standard.

The fourth possibility is that the Fiorina choice worked in the moment (remember that the Clout poll was taken over a period of only a few hours immediately after the Fiorina announcement) but will prove to be an ignis fatuus over the weekend.

[Vosem]

Vosem, you said a couple days ago that Cruz is favored to win in Indiana.  What made you change your mind?

I said this prior to the mid-Atlantic primary; some of the patterns shown seem to indicate Trump has developed real momentum (especially the results in rural Pennsylvania as compared to Upstate New York very clearly show Trump gained a significant amount of support over the course of that week). So I now think Trump is likelier than not to carry Indiana; as I've said before, demographically certain tendencies in the Northeast (especially age) are totally different than in the rest of the country, which means it's not impossible for his success there not to translate to the rest of the country, but momentum being limited to just one region is extremely unusual in what is effectively a two-candidate presidential primary.

The Clout Research poll has made me less certain, because it shows basically no change from the pre-mid-Atlantic numbers. If we accept it as correct (Clout has very little track record, but what exists is generally pretty good), it can indicate one of three scenarios: either that the momentum was never real outside the Northeast (in which case Cruz is probably on track to win Indiana as he was beforehand), that the Fiorina choice actually worked and has caused support to return to Cruz (in which case Cruz is probably on track to win Indiana), or that the shift that occurred in the Northeast was in the way undecideds behave on Election Day, in which case Trump is on track to win Indiana regardless.

The other scenario, of course, is that the Clout poll is simply wrong. Clout is no fabled gold standard.

The fourth possibility is that the Fiorina choice worked in the moment (remember that the Clout poll was taken over a period of only a few hours immediately after the Fiorina announcement) but will prove to be an ignis fatuus over the weekend.

That's sort of included in the possibility of "they could be wrong", though I don't really buy the idea that being conducted right afterwards is what made the poll wrong if it is. This isn't an offhand comment that people will forget, and I don't think anyone's opinion on Fiorina and the wisdom of picking her is going to change by Tuesday. Where the race was after Cruz made the announcement is where the race is now. If that's a 2-point margin with 8% undecided and 16% still pulling for Kasich...

[Seriously?]

Cruz should have followed his own words and dropped out once he was mathematically eliminated, which was Tuesday.

[Seriously?]

I think I read somewhere that Trump has more votes than Romney had at this point last time. 

Trump now has more votes than Romney got in all of 2012. He's on pace to smash George W. Bush's record of ~12 million primary votes in 2000.

[Seriously?]

Vosem, you said a couple days ago that Cruz is favored to win in Indiana.  What made you change your mind?

I said this prior to the mid-Atlantic primary; some of the patterns shown seem to indicate Trump has developed real momentum (especially the results in rural Pennsylvania as compared to Upstate New York very clearly show Trump gained a significant amount of support over the course of that week). So I now think Trump is likelier than not to carry Indiana; as I've said before, demographically certain tendencies in the Northeast (especially age) are totally different than in the rest of the country, which means it's not impossible for his success there not to translate to the rest of the country, but momentum being limited to just one region is extremely unusual in what is effectively a two-candidate presidential primary.

The Clout Research poll has made me less certain, because it shows basically no change from the pre-mid-Atlantic numbers. If we accept it as correct (Clout has very little track record, but what exists is generally pretty good), it can indicate one of three scenarios: either that the momentum was never real outside the Northeast (in which case Cruz is probably on track to win Indiana as he was beforehand), that the Fiorina choice actually worked and has caused support to return to Cruz (in which case Cruz is probably on track to win Indiana), or that the shift that occurred in the Northeast was in the way undecideds behave on Election Day, in which case Trump is on track to win Indiana regardless.

The other scenario, of course, is that the Clout poll is simply wrong. Clout is no fabled gold standard.

Clout's partner PJ WENZEL is firmly in the #NeverTrump camp. CNN reported that Cruz's internals has him down by 10 points. Trump's alleged internals have him up 20 points. Indiana is looking Trump despite Cruz and Kasich's shenanigans.

[Vosem]

Trump has no internals. The 20 points number isn't real. CNN did report that Cruz's internals had him down 10 points, but they also said Fiorina helped by "a couple of points" and in every Midwestern state that's voted to date undecideds have broken heavily toward whoever has the bets chance at stopping Trump where it was clear who that person was; in states where it wasn't clear, they were split among different anti-Trump candidates. Trump is receiving a lot of votes, but so are his opponents; the percent of the primary vote he's receiving is a record low.

Again, Trump could totally win this. He's probably up right now, as a matter of fact. But trying to insist this is a double-digit race is ludicrous.

[RJEvans]

Anyone think he's seriously thinking about a third-party run? He has to know he can't win.

[Ljube]

He should have dropped out already.

[PresidentTRUMP]

Its officially over for him and Trump will get 1,237 delegates if he wins Indiana. I still don't think he would drop out in the hope Trump comes up a few delegates short and he can pull off a miracle at the convention.

If hes smart if he loses Indiana he would call Trump and drop out which would officially give Trump the nomination so he can focus on the General election than in return for the current open supreme court seat.

[Stranger in a strange land]

The fact that Ted Cruz thinks naming Carly Fiorina as his VP is an effective form of pandering just perfectly illustrates his political ineptitude.  Sad!  He should have dropped out after announcing his low-energy collusion with Joan Cusack.

The Blue Avatars still don't realize just how big a disaster Cruz would be in a general election. Trump is a high risk/high reward candidate, while Cruz is a high risk/low reward candidate.

Cruz is more low risk, low reward. He would lose in a boring 2012 esque election but he would lose hitting Clinton from the right.

Trump has the potential to seriously damage the party, he has no discipline and really no clue in regards to so many issues, especially conservative issues.

Low risk, low reward would be someone like Jeb Bush: he wouldn't do any permanent damage to the party, and would allow them to keep the house and probably the senate, but would probably lose with around 200-250 EVs unless Hillary suffered a major scandal. Ted Cruz, on the other hand, is already trailing in the polls, despite the fact that he looks reasonable next to Trump, and hasn't been attacked from the Left at all yet: his favorables will drop like a rock once the public finds out how extreme his views are. The far bigger problem for Cruz is his unlikeability and smarminess. Trump is dangerous primarily because of his appeal to the white working class. Cruz is toxic to these voters. This is why Trump is a far more formidable opponent in a general election.

[MyRescueKittehRocks]

JCL in da house! How are you?!

Doing fine. Getting married in July. Voting for Cruz (wish Rand caught traction).

Trump isn't guaranteed to hit 1237 even if he wins Indiana. He'd have to run the table (which he won't).

[Leinad]

Cruz should keep going unless such a moment is reached when Trump cannot mathematically be stopped on the first ballot.

Basically, this.

I never like the idea of forcing candidates out. I mean, if Trump is already winning, why should Cruz and Kasich drop out? Won't he just continue onto his coronation? What are you afraid of?

And no, Cruz is not mathematically eliminated from winning. He is eliminated from winning *before* the convention, but not *at* the convention. Just as I scoffed at the Cruz shills who thought Kasich MUST drop out when he couldn't hit 1237, I scoff now at the Trump shills who think Cruz MUST drop out. I mean, yes, they can't hit 1237, but it's not at all a guarantee Trump will, either. If he doesn't, do they not have a nominee? Of course not. They settle it at the convention.

At that convention, if Trump is closest to 1237, he will have a YUGE advantage. But if Trump proves to be too incompetent at winning delegates at state conventions and Cruz wins, Cruz should be the winner. I mean, if Trump has such a piss-poor campaign he can't translate the most votes into the most delegates, why on earth do you want him taking on the Clinton machine in November?

[Orser67]

He still has a plausible, albeit small, chance of winning the nomination. Of course he should stay in. Even if he didn't want to stay in, he owes it to his supporters.

[Maxwell]

I hope he drops out because I think he's gross

That being said, he won't.