Democrats Must Win 30 Seats to Take the House
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  Democrats Must Win 30 Seats to Take the House
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Author Topic: Democrats Must Win 30 Seats to Take the House  (Read 2792 times)
Frodo
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« on: April 27, 2016, 11:33:58 PM »
« edited: April 27, 2016, 11:36:28 PM by Frodo »

If Democrats do regain the House, their majority will look nothing like their previous majorities with all the Blue Dogs having been decimated over the years:

The Seats Democrats Must Win to Retake House

Nathan L. Gonzales
Posted at Apr 27, 2016 5:00 AM


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- See more at: http://www.rollcall.com/news/rothenblog/the-seats-democrats-must-win-to-retake-house#sthash.8Mbea5h1.dpuf
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IceSpear
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« Reply #1 on: April 28, 2016, 12:23:06 AM »

Yeah, this is underrated as a factor on why the House is such trouble for Dems. Gerrymandering is a huge part, but even without that they'd still be in the hole due to the decimation of the Blue Dogs and their inability to break through in many suburban districts that are friendly to them on the presidential level.
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jfern
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« Reply #2 on: April 28, 2016, 12:24:00 AM »

An unpopular Hillary Presidency will only make this worse after redistricting.
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Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #3 on: April 28, 2016, 12:34:14 AM »

An unpopular Hillary Presidency will only make this worse after redistricting.

Sanders would have a terrible midterm too. Socialism just isn't popular when it actually starts getting put into practice.
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Vosem
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« Reply #4 on: April 28, 2016, 12:56:47 AM »

The silver lining of 2016 is that 2018 is going to be a fantastic year. If Republicans manage to hold on to the Senate, I might even say an argument exists that it was worth it.
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smoltchanov
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« Reply #5 on: April 28, 2016, 03:24:05 AM »

The silver lining of 2016 is that 2018 is going to be a fantastic year. If Republicans manage to hold on to the Senate, I might even say an argument exists that it was worth it.

Well, may be. But - may be not too. With Republican party running too many right-wing idiots in too many districts (and districts favorable to such idiots (in the South, for example) are mostly represented by similar congressmen already).... And 2018 elections will be at least somewhat "tilted" to North-East (for example - out of 9 North-East states 8 will hold Senate elections and 8 - Gubernatorial in 2018)....
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« Reply #6 on: April 28, 2016, 06:50:20 AM »

The silver lining of 2016 is that 2018 is going to be a fantastic year. If Republicans manage to hold on to the Senate, I might even say an argument exists that it was worth it.

If people talk like that, then we will actually lose this election.  Don't give up!!!
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Gass3268
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« Reply #7 on: April 28, 2016, 08:07:28 AM »

The silver lining of 2016 is that 2018 is going to be a fantastic year. If Republicans manage to hold on to the Senate, I might even say an argument exists that it was worth it.

Luckily if Clinton gets to put a few more liberals on the Supreme Court, gerrymandering will probably be declared unconstitutional.
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Mr.Phips
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« Reply #8 on: April 28, 2016, 09:31:27 AM »

The silver lining of 2016 is that 2018 is going to be a fantastic year. If Republicans manage to hold on to the Senate, I might even say an argument exists that it was worth it.

Luckily if Clinton gets to put a few more liberals on the Supreme Court, gerrymandering will probably be declared unconstitutional.

This. 

After the blatantly partisan decision on Citizens United, a liberal majority Supreme Court has every right and reason to do this.
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The Other Castro
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« Reply #9 on: April 28, 2016, 12:31:51 PM »

Clinton would probably need around a 10 point win to have a chance at taking back the House.
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136or142
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« Reply #10 on: April 28, 2016, 12:34:56 PM »

That subject should actually be "Democrats must win a net of 30 seats to take the House."
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #11 on: April 28, 2016, 12:46:03 PM »

2002 and 1998 proved that inc presidents Buck trend. Can and IL and NY state legislatures have known to do that.  Hilary isn't Obama and she can campaign in red states to save Heikamp and McCaskill. 2018 won't be a Dem year but 2002and 1998 proved neutral years.
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Vosem
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« Reply #12 on: April 28, 2016, 01:06:00 PM »

The silver lining of 2016 is that 2018 is going to be a fantastic year. If Republicans manage to hold on to the Senate, I might even say an argument exists that it was worth it.

Well, may be. But - may be not too. With Republican party running too many right-wing idiots in too many districts (and districts favorable to such idiots (in the South, for example) are mostly represented by similar congressmen already).... And 2018 elections will be at least somewhat "tilted" to North-East (for example - out of 9 North-East states 8 will hold Senate elections and 8 - Gubernatorial in 2018)....

That's true, but there are Democratic Senate incumbents up in North Dakota, Montana, Missouri, Indiana, and West Virginia. Those are all states Trump is favored to win, and with the exception of Manchin in WV all of them won in 2012 through a mixture of bad opponents and presidential turnout; and the landscape in WV has shifted quite a lot from 2012 already, never mind by 2018. Even if Josh Mandel, whom I strongly support, doesn't succeed in his second Senate attempt here in Ohio, Republicans will still win back/significantly expand upon their Senate majority in 2018.

The silver lining of 2016 is that 2018 is going to be a fantastic year. If Republicans manage to hold on to the Senate, I might even say an argument exists that it was worth it.

Luckily if Clinton gets to put a few more liberals on the Supreme Court, gerrymandering will probably be declared unconstitutional.

Luckily that'll undo partisan gerrymanders in Illinois and Maryland. The net helps your party, I agree, but by no more than 10-15 seats; still not enough to take the House without a PV victory of a few points. The Democratic Party has the intractable problem that its areas of strength are both more compact and more intensely Democratic than Republican areas of strength, and therefore narrow Democratic victories will always result in Republican majorities under the system of single-member geographic districts (not as large as in 2012, but still). Remember how the neutral, non-partisan map in Illinois in the 2000s once gave Republicans a majority of the delegation? The only fix for this is either multi-member seats or a proportional system, and neither is achievable without a constitutional amendment.

I also question how easy it'll be and especially how long it'll take for a Clinton SCOTUS appointee to be confirmed, but that's incredibly difficult to discuss without knowing exact Senatorial numbers.

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Orser67
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« Reply #13 on: April 28, 2016, 01:33:16 PM »

Based on Cook's ratings, if Democrats swept all the seats that are Lean R or better for them, they would win a net of 31 seats (32 pick-ups minus Graham's seat). Another 13 seats are listed by Cook as likely Republican. At the moment, Cook's ratings are much more favorable to Democrats than are other prognosticators, but House Democrats are still much better positioned than I thought they would be.

Also, I'm glad that Democrats are focusing on the suburbs. Winning the suburbs seems like pretty much the only way that the party could re-take the House, and I expect that Cruz or Trump would perform terribly in many suburban districts.
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The Other Castro
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« Reply #14 on: April 28, 2016, 01:41:08 PM »

Sabato just made these rating changes:

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Maxwell
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« Reply #15 on: April 28, 2016, 02:24:28 PM »

I read his justification and I'm astonished that some random attorney could be out-raising Mike Bost atm.
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Figueira
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« Reply #16 on: April 28, 2016, 02:46:29 PM »

The House is winnable if there's a major Democratic landslide AND it carries over to House elections.
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136or142
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« Reply #17 on: April 28, 2016, 06:25:52 PM »

I read his justification and I'm astonished that some random attorney could be out-raising Mike Bost atm.

Have the first quarter fundraising figures been released, and, if so, are they on opensecrets.org?

Charles (CJ) Baricevic is the 'random attorney.'  He had previously been left for dead, just like Darth Vader.
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Devils30
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« Reply #18 on: April 29, 2016, 05:09:18 PM »

It's too early for 2018 panic, as President Hillary would get a national audience and be able to hit the reset button with a lot of the things such as the emails that currently cause her unfavorables.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #19 on: May 02, 2016, 12:03:33 PM »

2016 maybe a 2004 neutral election but Clinton narrowly winning or a 2012 winning in a landslide. But 2016 maybe the first time that Dems have duplicated am electoral map. But Dems can have a wave Senate seats without winning House

As far as 2018 goes, very little as far as impeachment is concerned without the Senate. If Clinton stays near 47-49% approvals D's will be fine
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Young Conservative
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« Reply #20 on: May 03, 2016, 12:39:19 AM »

Blue dogs don't even exist they've been purged from the party, i should know my aunt ran for congress as one and was harassed by the national party for her prolife, progun, probusiness stance and record. she's a republican now- staunchly for Trump
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jfern
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« Reply #21 on: May 03, 2016, 12:42:27 AM »

Yeah, this is underrated as a factor on why the House is such trouble for Dems. Gerrymandering is a huge part, but even without that they'd still be in the hole due to the decimation of the Blue Dogs and their inability to break through in many suburban districts that are friendly to them on the presidential level.

2014 was an almost total wipeout for Democrats in heavily Republican areas. Out of all the seats more Republican than R+1, only 4 Democrats won. Democratic incumbents were re-elected in an R+3 and R+6, and strangely there were 2 pickups in R+4s. And R+1s voted for Obama, so those are the only Romney district Democrats.
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Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #22 on: May 03, 2016, 01:29:30 AM »

Blue dogs don't even exist they've been purged from the party, i should know my aunt ran for congress as one and was harassed by the national party for her prolife, progun, probusiness stance and record. she's a republican now- staunchly for Trump

In what district and year?
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Figueira
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« Reply #23 on: May 03, 2016, 05:33:18 AM »

It's too early for 2018 panic, as President Hillary would get a national audience and be able to hit the reset button with a lot of the things such as the emails that currently cause her unfavorables.

I'm sure they'll have other things to attack her on by then, but I agree that conceding elections two and a half years in advance is stupid.
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« Reply #24 on: May 04, 2016, 11:49:22 AM »

An unpopular Hillary Presidency will only make this worse after redistricting.

A popular Hillary Presidency will make this better after redistricting.
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