Assuming Trump is the Nominee...Which States Would Gary Johnson Win? Predictions

[mds32]

Alabama- Trump 52% Clinton 41% Johnson 7%
Alaska- Johnson 37% Clinton 33% Trump 30%
Arizona- Clinton 43% Trump 39% Johnson 18%
Arkansas- Clinton 44% Trump 42% Johnson 14%
California- Clinton 56% Trump 29% Johnson 15%
Colorado- Clinton 36% Trump 33% Johnson 31%
Connecticut- Clinton 51% Trump 44% Johnson 5%
Delaware- Clinton 53% Trump 41% Johnson 6%
Florida- Clinton 44% Trump 39% Johnson 17%
Georgia- Clinton 41% Trump 40% Johnson 19%
Hawaii- Clinton 59% Johnson 25% Trump 16%
Idaho- Johnson 38% Trump 31% Clinton 31%
Illinois- Clinton 49% Trump 38% Johnson 13%
Indiana- Clinton 37% Trump 36% Johnson 27%
Iowa- Clinton 44% Trump 40% Johnson 16%
Kansas- Trump 45% Clinton 42% Johnson 13%
Kentucky- Trump 46% Clinton 40% Johnson 14%
Louisiana- Trump 44% Clinton 43% Johnson 17%
Maine- Clinton 46% Trump 37% Johnson 17%
Maryland- Clinton 54% Trump 39% Johnson 7%
Massachusetts- Clinton 55% Trump 40% Johnson 5%
Michigan- Clinton 48% Trump 41% Johnson 11%
Minnesota- Clinton 45% Trump 37% Johnson 18%
Mississippi- Clinton 42% Trump 41% Johnson 17%
Missouri- Clinton 39% Trump 31% Johnson 30%
Montana- Johnson 37% Clinton 35% Trump 28%
Nebraska- Trump 43% Clinton 40% Johnson 17%
Nevada- Clinton 38% Johnson 32% Trump 30%
New Hampshire- Clinton 46% Trump 39% Johnson 15%
New Jersey- Clinton 50% Trump 41% Johnson 9%
New Mexico- Clinton 42% Johnson 36% Trump 22%
New York- Clinton 58% Trump 38% Johnson 4%
North Carolina- Clinton 41% Trump 34% Johnson 25%
North Dakota- Trump 45% Clinton 39% Johnson 16%
Ohio- Clinton 45% Trump 38% Johnson 17%
Oklahoma- Trump 49% Clinton 42% Johnson 9%
Oregon- Clinton 47% Trump 39% Johnson 14%
Pennsylvania- Clinton 44% Trump 37% Johnson 19%
Rhode Island- Clinton 60% Trump 29% Johnson 11%
South Carolina- Trump 39% Clinton 37% Johnson 24%
South Dakota- Trump 43% Johnson 34% Clinton 23%
Tennessee- Trump 42% Clinton 35% Johnson 23%
Texas- Trump 48% Clinton 39% Johnson 13%
Utah- Johnson 47% Clinton 33% Trump 20%
Vermont- Clinton 57% Trump 34% Johnson 9%
Virginia- Clinton 42% Trump 36% Johnson 22%
Washington State- Clinton 43% Trump 37% Johnson 20%
West Virginia- Trump 50% Clinton 44% Johnson 6%
Wisconsin- Clinton 44% Trump 39% Johnson 17%
Wyoming- Johnson 41% Trump 40% Clinton 19%
DC- Clinton 84% Trump 11% Johnson 5%

That could result in a 407-112-19 EV blowout, this would only be if Trump truly does injure himself enough to the point where Johnson could become a defacto nominee. They would split large sums of voters imo.

[Ronnie]

You're joking, right?

[Lyin' Steve]

Gary Johnson wouldn't get more than 1% of the vote in any state except New Mexico.

[beaver2.0]

Gary Johnson wouldn't get more than 1% of the vote in any state except New Mexico.

I think he would get between 2.5 and 10% in most states.  I doubt he wins anything outright.

That, of course, assumes that Johnson gets the nomination.  I think he would do better than any other candidate running for the Libertarian nomination due to his political experience.

[Famous Mortimer]

0

He might break 2% nationwide.

Maybe 5% in New Mexico and Alaska.

[standwrand]

Johnson would have a good showing in UT, MT, and NM, but nothing over 20% and it probably won't be enough to push UT or MT to Clinton. That's being generous.

[Phony Moderate]

You're joking, right?

No, it's perfectly plausible that a candidate who is arguably more socially liberal than any Democratic nominee in history could split the right-wing vote in MS, thus allowing Hillary to win the state.

[mencken]

You're joking, right?

No, it's perfectly plausible that a candidate who is arguably more socially liberal than any Democratic nominee in history could split the right-wing vote in MS, thus allowing Hillary to win the state.

One of Trump's best pre-NY states will have people defect en masse to Gary Johnson due to Trump's social liberalism?!

[user12345]

hahahhah

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

D.W. Perry is going to be the Libertarian nominee. Have fun stomaching that.

[Crumpets]

Seriously, if he ran the campaign of a lifetime and Hillary and Trump were found to be having a secret affair on the taxpayer's dime, he'd be lucky to hit 10% in New Mexico. People might want a third option, but when it comes to actually filling in that bubble, nobody wants Gary Johnson outside of Atlas.

[Bakersfield Uber Alles]

I think he would get between 2.5 and 10% in most states.  I doubt he wins anything outright.

That, of course, assumes that Johnson gets the nomination.  I think he would do better than any other candidate running for the Libertarian nomination due to his political experience.

[Vosem]

Nobody wants Clinton or Trump, and there's plenty of precedent for Libertarian or random Independent candidates in the high single digits when nobody wants either of the top two choices. As for states, I could see Utah if a really concerted campaign. Probably nowhere else, though in a strong campaign I could see him finishing 15-20 in the popular vote, a la Perot.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

Divide all your Johnson percentages by a factor of 5 and you have something resembling a realistic ceiling for him.

[sparkey]

Nothin (realistic Libertarian).

One way the LP nominee could make a major splash would be to get into the debates, and Clinton vs. Trump polls could result in just about any third option to poll above the necessary 15%. It would be a particular bonus if the polls reminded people who the candidates are, like, "former New Mexico Governor Gary Johnson" or "antivirus pioneer John McAfee" rather than "Gary Johnson" or "John McAfee," because let's be honest, very few people are paying attention to who is running for the LP nomination.

I'm worried about GJ's debate performance if he makes it, though. I think the only way we reach anywhere near the numbers in the OP is to (1) make the debates and (2) have a hugely successful debate performance. One reason I prefer McAfee is that I trust him much more on (2).

[Leinad]

99% chance he wins zero states. It's such an unlikely thing when you're getting zero media coverage, the vast majority of voting Americans religiously vote for one of the two major parties without giving it much of a second thought, and the fact that both parties will hate their nominee is cancelled out by the fact they hate the other team's nominee even more.

Third parties in total could get 5% nationwide. Maybe even 10%, because there is an appetite for that. And the LP nominee could cash in on a lot of that. But many of it they will not--upset Democrats could vote Green, while upset Republicans could "write in Cruz" () or "write-in Romney" (my god, now I wish there was a double-eye-roll), and anyone could just, you know, stay home.

For someone to vote Libertarian they have to realize third parties exist AND judge the LP to be better enough than the other two to vote for the party. The first part is made difficult by the "zero mainstream media coverage" thing, while the second part is made difficult by the "wasted vote" paradigm, and the fact that many people would actually prefer another ideology to libertarianism.

So, even if half the people voting went against the major parties, which is absurd, the Libertarian Party nominee could conceivably not win a single state.

Now, please, never ask this question again so I don't have to make another post this freaking depressing.

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

None

/thread

[Orser67]

I think Johnson will win between 1-4% of the vote, and will win between 4-8% of the vote in his best state. That would be really good for a third party, but I don't think he'll come anywhere close to winning a state.

[ProudModerate2]

I think this is one of the silliest threads I have ever seen.

[MT Treasurer]

God, Atlas #analysis is so terrible.

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

None. Maybe 5-10% in a few states.   I think there's a chance 3rd party combined vote in UT is greater than either Trump or Clinton, but more there will vote Constitution than Libertarian.

[IceSpear]

None. Jill Stein will win all 50 states. Reddit told me so.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

Now, please, never ask this question again so I don't have to make another post this freaking depressing.

The LP seriously missed its moment here.  Had they settled on a major celebrity candidate with huge likability and social media savvy, they could be sweeping up the Bernie defectors (I know it makes no logical sense, but Bernie bros don't) as well as disaffected independents.

Louis C.K.?  Is he a Libertarian?

[ElectionsGuy]

Nope. The best hope for libertarians to ever win a state is to win a lawsuit against the presidential debates commission (unlikely) to get into the debates and then seriously make resonating positions with the public (unlikely again, and with Johnson's speaking awkwardness, this is emphasized, assuming he's the nominee). Worst case scenario is a repeat of 2012 getting 1% and no media coverage. Best case scenario is a Ross Perot showing, getting a good chunk nationwide, possibly enough to win a state or two, but most likely not.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

A Libertarian candidate needs to do what Trump did: get free advertisement from the media for being a celebrity.