Assuming Trump is the Nominee...Which States Would Gary Johnson Win? Predictions
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
March 29, 2024, 08:07:05 AM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Election Archive
  Election Archive
  2016 U.S. Presidential Election
  Assuming Trump is the Nominee...Which States Would Gary Johnson Win? Predictions
« previous next »
Pages: 1 [2] 3
Author Topic: Assuming Trump is the Nominee...Which States Would Gary Johnson Win? Predictions  (Read 2712 times)
Enduro
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,073


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #25 on: April 28, 2016, 03:36:49 PM »

I'd be happy with the results you posted.
Logged
sparkey
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,103


Political Matrix
E: 6.71, S: -7.30

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #26 on: April 28, 2016, 03:45:24 PM »

The LP seriously missed its moment here.  Had they settled on a major celebrity candidate with huge likability and social media savvy, they could be sweeping up the Bernie defectors (I know it makes no logical sense, but Bernie bros don't) as well as disaffected independents.

Louis C.K.?  Is he a Libertarian?

Louis CK is pretty libertarian in his views, but not doctrinaire, and doesn't think he's qualified for politics: http://hollowverse.com/louis-ck/

John McAfee is honestly probably the most famous person to ever run for the LP nomination. Ron Paul may be more famous now, but wasn't so famous back when he ran.

Some other famous libertarians include: Kurt Russell, Vince Vaughn, Drew Carey, Trey Parker, and Penn Jillette. I guess Jesse Ventura would also count. Bruce Willis and Clint Eastwood have been mentioned as libertarians before too, but are heterodox at best.
Logged
Wisconsin+17
Ben Kenobi
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,127
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #27 on: April 28, 2016, 03:51:27 PM »

Zero. Why would socons go for Gary Johnson?

Quote
You must be logged in to read this quote.

I mean, I'm practically your target audience, socon, willing to vote third party, has voted third party in the last election. Didn't vote for Romney. Conservative.

And yet I'm *still* not voting for Johnson.
Logged
sparkey
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,103


Political Matrix
E: 6.71, S: -7.30

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #28 on: April 28, 2016, 03:55:01 PM »


Libertarians honestly expect to perform poorly in states with significant socon presence. If we ran a nationally competitive campaign, we'd first be getting Western states that are conservative but not socon, in particular the mountain west region.
Logged
Wisconsin+17
Ben Kenobi
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,127
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #29 on: April 28, 2016, 04:12:06 PM »

Quote
You must be logged in to read this quote.

The same regions that Cruz is dominating? Non socon libertarian isn't going to get any traction against Trump.
Logged
Leinad
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,049
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.03, S: -7.91

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #30 on: April 28, 2016, 04:48:52 PM »

Now, please, never ask this question again so I don't have to make another post this freaking depressing.

The LP seriously missed its moment here.  Had they settled on a major celebrity candidate with huge likability and social media savvy, they could be sweeping up the Bernie defectors (I know it makes no logical sense, but Bernie bros don't) as well as disaffected independents.

Louis C.K.?  Is he a Libertarian?

As much as I love Louis C.K., I don't think #CK4LP would work. But I'd show up to all his rallies with an "Awesome Possum" shirt on if he did. Doug Stanhope (who was on a great episode of Louie) is libertarian, of course, but doesn't have the name recognition for the type of candidate you're wanting.

I get what you're saying, but this "celebrity" needs to be an actual libertarian, and not a publicity stunt. Trump, your example, is doing well, but he's alienating 80% of the country. He won't win. To get enough to win without the mass of zombie voters who devoutly support a major party in this "lesser of two evils" world, you need a very, VERY good candidate. Someone who can make the case that they can lead the country, and that their ideology is better than the other two. I doubt any mega-celebrity candidate can do that. Honestly, Johnson and McAfee are probably the best at that--Johnson with the former, McAfee with the latter.

The LP can bring in some Cruz defectors if Trump wins, and/or Bernie defectors when Clinton wins. They could even do both, but not in large enough quantities (since a candidate that would max out one--say, Austin Petersen for the Tea Partiers--would suck at the other).

Now, you want celebrity libertarians? Jimmy Wales and Elon Musk immediately come to mind, plus the guys Sparkey mentioned. But, again, while a celebrity would generate media coverage, to get votes without built-in machines I think you need a political office on the resume (I know he's awkward, but Gary Johnson is FAR more qualified than the top two candidates in either major party).
Logged
sparkey
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,103


Political Matrix
E: 6.71, S: -7.30

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #31 on: April 28, 2016, 06:31:05 PM »
« Edited: April 28, 2016, 06:36:46 PM by sparkey »

Now, you want celebrity libertarians? Jimmy Wales and Elon Musk immediately come to mind, plus the guys Sparkey mentioned. But, again, while a celebrity would generate media coverage, to get votes without built-in machines I think you need a political office on the resume (I know he's awkward, but Gary Johnson is FAR more qualified than the top two candidates in either major party).

Jimmy Wales and Elon Musk would both be great candidates, I think I'd be more enthusiastic about them than any of the actors I mentioned if they became the LP nominee sometime in the future. I wonder if either could be pried from their work. It might be very difficult, but then again, it's not like any of the actors I mentioned are likely to jump in a Presidential race, either. (EDIT: Just realized that Elon Musk isn't even qualified to be President, he was born in South Africa. Well, there goes that thought.)

Trying to think of libertarians or libertarian-leaners who are actually interested in involving themselves in electoral politics is more difficult than thinking of celebrity libertarians. Maybe Krist Novoselic? Not that he would be a better candidate than Johnson or McAfee.

I think it's amazing that so many LP members think we have a bad slate of candidates this year. In my opinion, Johnson and McAfee are probably our 2 best candidates ever, maybe tied with Ron Paul. What do they think a good year of candidates was? 2000, when the LP was picking between a retread investment analyst and an NH state rep? 2004, when the LP was picking between a radio host, a film producer, and a software engineer (and the software engineer won)? I really don't think we can expect much better than this, in terms of qualifications or celebrity or anything.
Logged
Adam Griffin
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 20,090
Greece


Political Matrix
E: -7.35, S: -6.26

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #32 on: April 28, 2016, 06:53:20 PM »

Honestly, the best scenario for any Libertarian candidate in this election is one in which Trump isn't the nominee, if you catch my drift.
Logged
Kingpoleon
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 22,144
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #33 on: April 28, 2016, 07:36:03 PM »


No, it's perfectly plausible that a candidate who is arguably more socially liberal than any Democratic nominee in history could split the right-wing vote in MS, thus allowing Hillary to win the state.

+Blacks

If a minority is VP, MS is Safe D if Hillary is the nominee.
Logged
Heisenberg
SecureAmerica
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,110
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #34 on: April 28, 2016, 07:49:11 PM »

Johnson would have a good showing in UT, MT, and UT, but nothing over 20% and it probably won't be enough to push UT or MT to Clinton. That's being generous.
You said UT twice.  What other state did you mean?
Logged
Badger
badger
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 40,258
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #35 on: April 28, 2016, 07:54:00 PM »

Of course not. Don't be silly.


And...

I think this is one of the silliest threads I have ever seen.
Logged
standwrand
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 592
United States


Political Matrix
E: 8.55, S: -2.74

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #36 on: April 28, 2016, 07:55:25 PM »

Johnson would have a good showing in UT, MT, and UT, but nothing over 20% and it probably won't be enough to push UT or MT to Clinton. That's being generous.
You said UT twice.  What other state did you mean?

lol I meant NM
Logged
Figueira
84285
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 12,175


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #37 on: April 28, 2016, 07:59:16 PM »

Libertarians' support is fairly evenly spread across the country. Even if they get 20%, they're not winning any states.

And if you're a Libertarian, you should be fine with that. Winning states doesn't do anything except make the map look slightly more interesting.
Logged
🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸
shua
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 25,665
Nepal


Political Matrix
E: 1.29, S: -0.70

WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #38 on: April 28, 2016, 08:03:00 PM »

Libertarians' support is fairly evenly spread across the country. Even if they get 20%, they're not winning any states.

And if you're a Libertarian, you should be fine with that. Winning states doesn't do anything except make the map look slightly more interesting.

there are these things called electoral votes.
Logged
Badger
badger
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 40,258
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #39 on: April 28, 2016, 08:08:16 PM »

Anyone willing to bet $100 that Johnson hits 10% in even 1 state please contact me. I'll gladly take your bet. Seriously.

I understand most libertards have their wealth invested in "mint in box" action figures, but if you're able to put your money where your grossly unrealistic analysis is, I'm right here.
Logged
MyRescueKittehRocks
JohanusCalvinusLibertas
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,763
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #40 on: April 28, 2016, 08:34:34 PM »

D.W. Perry is going to be the Libertarian nominee. Have fun stomaching that.

More like Austen Petersen
Logged
sparkey
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,103


Political Matrix
E: 6.71, S: -7.30

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #41 on: April 28, 2016, 08:52:56 PM »

D.W. Perry is going to be the Libertarian nominee. Have fun stomaching that.

More like Austen Petersen

Nuh uh, John McAfee



(substantive internet arguments goin' on in here)
Logged
Leinad
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,049
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.03, S: -7.91

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #42 on: April 29, 2016, 12:51:32 AM »

If a minority is VP, MS is Safe D if Hillary is the nominee.

Uh, no. No it is not.

But it could, perhaps, be an Indiana or North Carolina '08 type state if that happens.
Logged
Beefalow and the Consumer
Beef
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,123
United States


Political Matrix
E: -2.77, S: -8.78

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #43 on: April 29, 2016, 07:35:38 AM »


No, it's perfectly plausible that a candidate who is arguably more socially liberal than any Democratic nominee in history could split the right-wing vote in MS, thus allowing Hillary to win the state.

+Blacks

If a minority is VP, MS is Safe D if Hillary is the nominee.

There's still LOTS of time to pass some new voter ID laws.
Logged
VPH
vivaportugalhabs
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,682
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.13, S: -0.17

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #44 on: April 29, 2016, 08:13:10 AM »

There is no way he breaks 15% in ANY state. At most (!) he will get 10-12% in Utah, 8% or so in Idaho, Wyoming, and Montana, and 7% in New Mexico.
Logged
Young Conservative
youngconservative
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,029
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #45 on: April 29, 2016, 08:19:31 AM »

He wouldn't get over 3%
Logged
Coolface Sock #42069
whitesox130
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,695
United States


Political Matrix
E: 4.39, S: 2.26

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #46 on: April 29, 2016, 11:01:03 AM »

If he could consolidate the anti-Trump Republican vote in Utah, he could carry it.

Not sure about anywhere else.
Logged
°Leprechaun
tmcusa2
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,117
Uruguay


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #47 on: April 29, 2016, 12:45:57 PM »

To get an idea:

https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/party.php?year=2000&type=national&no=3&f=1&off=0&elect=0

Although I am not predicting anything. It could be worse or better.
Libertarians have, in a lot of ways outperformed Greens and the question remains if either of their candidates can do as well as Nader did. I wouldn't expect a third party or independent to carry any states, but this is certainly not a typical year.
Logged
°Leprechaun
tmcusa2
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,117
Uruguay


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #48 on: April 29, 2016, 12:56:44 PM »

Years when top third party candidate got more than 5%:

27.39%    1912 (came in second)
16.62%    1924
13.53%    1968
  6.61%    1980
18.91%    1992
 8.40%     1996

I currently see no reason that anyone this year will get more than 5%, although I suppose it's possible given the volatility this year.
Logged
°Leprechaun
tmcusa2
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,117
Uruguay


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #49 on: April 29, 2016, 01:00:23 PM »

Also, without ballot access in 50 states, unlikely for either Green or Libertarian parties, there isn't going to be a strong showing. Nader didn't even make it on all 50 states.

People can write in candidates, but those states usually have poor results for write in candidates.
Logged
Pages: 1 [2] 3  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.05 seconds with 13 queries.