If Trump wins Indiana Tuesday, is Trump the GOP nominee?

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

5 day poll, ends right before polls close Tuesday.

[ElectionsGuy]

Yes. He gets 30 just by winning. At that point, California would have to be a large Cruz win in order for him to be stopped.

[NHI]

It's already over. He is the presumptive nominee.

[standwrand]

Trump has been the GOP nominee since March 15th

[Fuzzy Bear]

Technically, no.  The Establishment is going to fight Trump tooth and nail, not because they want to stop him so much as they want to either (A) weaken his issue stances they find abhorrent, or (B) actually substitute their own favored candidate out of the blue.  (I think they've given up on Cruz; he didn't do what he had to do to convince the Establishment they HAD to ride with him.)

But if Trump wins California and Indiana, I think all this talk of a contested convention will go by the wayside.  The greater public will not tolerate the airlifting of a candidate into the convention under those circumstances.  At that point, every candidate before Trump was treated as a presumptive nominee, so not doing so would bring out in the open a number of issues the GOP really doesn't want on display during their convention.

[TDAS04]

He already is.

[Meclazine for Israel]

I think he has already won, so yes.

[Figueira]

Are you asking whether he'll eventually be the GOP nominee, or whether Indiana will seal the deal?

Because my answer to the first question is yes, but my answer to the second question is no.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Probably unless something happens to rule 16.

[Oldiesfreak1854]

No, he is still far from clinching the nomination.  Cruz and Kasich wouldn't even have to win many of the remaining states to prevent him from getting a majority of delegates; they would just have to make a showing.  And considering that most of Pennsylvania's delegates are unpledged, Tuesday didn't do that much for Trump, either.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

He's not the GOP nominee until he gets to 1237 without counting his PA unbounds. That won't happen until June 7, if it even happens at all. If he's going to walk in with even 1236 bound, trust me, the republican establishment will be bribing every uncommitted delegate over and over again until they get their way. I know the networks are pretending that some number of PA unbounds are 100% committed to him (AP says 40, CNN says 35, MSNBC says 37) but the real truth is they're only convinced until a few nice dinners convinces them otherwise.

[Lyin' Steve]

Yeah, the GOP's muscle for fighting Trump has gone limp since New York.  I don't hear the passion or hair-pulling about his candidacy or anyone with any real urge to fight him, just a lot of resigned people saying "well, I'm still not going to vote for him."  The will required for delegate shenanigans just isn't there.

[Nyvin]

AP has Trump at 994 delegates currently.    He's pretty much guaranteed to win NJ and WV, which is 79 delegates total, which brings him to 1073.

From there he's pretty much guaranteed to win "at least" 35 delegates in a combination of primaries in OR, WA, and NM.   That brings him to 1,108.

In California I would say a safe estimate for Trump is somewhere around ~85 delegates (around half).   That's 1,193.

Indiana is 57 delegates...and Trump would need 44 of those,  saying he doesn't perform any better on the west coast or NM.     

So yeah, if Trump wins the 30 delegates for winning statewide in IN....there's a very good chance he tops 1237.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

He's at 955 (roughly) in reality - I really don't think he can count on even one of the PA unbounds, so the networks shouldn't be including some in his count like they currently are. He needs to either get a ~120 haul out of CA, or win one of MT/SD/NE.

[morgieb]

Yes. It's hard to see how he doesn't reach 1237 if he wins Indiana.

[Doimper]

He's at 955 (roughly) in reality - I really don't think he can count on even one of the PA unbounds, so the networks shouldn't be including some in his count like they currently are. He needs to either get a ~120 haul out of CA, or win one of MT/SD/NE.

Most of the PA delegates have stated their intent to vote for whomever won their district. Trump swept all districts.

[The Other Castro]

Even if he loses Indiana, I think a CA win would get him over 115 delegates from there and put him over the top. A win in Indiana would bring that required CA number down to 80 or so, and he'd probably only get more than that amount by winning the state as a whole. Basically, Indiana is not that important since his winning the nomination depends on a win in CA, and it's hard to see him losing CA at this point.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

And considering that most of Pennsylvania's delegates are unpledged, Tuesday didn't do that much for Trump, either.

Do you understand any of the specifics of what happened in Pennsylvania on Tuesday?

[Indy Texas]

Technically, no.  The Establishment is going to fight Trump tooth and nail, not because they want to stop him so much as they want to either (A) weaken his issue stances they find abhorrent, or (B) actually substitute their own favored candidate out of the blue.  (I think they've given up on Cruz; he didn't do what he had to do to convince the Establishment they HAD to ride with him.)

But if Trump wins California and Indiana, I think all this talk of a contested convention will go by the wayside.  The greater public will not tolerate the airlifting of a candidate into the convention under those circumstances.  At that point, every candidate before Trump was treated as a presumptive nominee, so not doing so would bring out in the open a number of issues the GOP really doesn't want on display during their convention.

If that is, indeed, the case, then it really is over. Doing anything to prop up John Kasich is going to be futile, unless they want him to be the Ngo Dinh Diem of the 2016 RNC. Even if Trump doesn't go in there with 1,237 votes, who the hell is the GOP going to propose as an alternative? It's clear that the well is poisoned with Cruz and that Kasich lacks any substantive support. Mitt Romney? Paul Ryan? Jeb!?

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Technically, no.  The Establishment is going to fight Trump tooth and nail, not because they want to stop him so much as they want to either (A) weaken his issue stances they find abhorrent, or (B) actually substitute their own favored candidate out of the blue.  (I think they've given up on Cruz; he didn't do what he had to do to convince the Establishment they HAD to ride with him.)

But if Trump wins California and Indiana, I think all this talk of a contested convention will go by the wayside.  The greater public will not tolerate the airlifting of a candidate into the convention under those circumstances.  At that point, every candidate before Trump was treated as a presumptive nominee, so not doing so would bring out in the open a number of issues the GOP really doesn't want on display during their convention.

If that is, indeed, the case, then it really is over. Doing anything to prop up John Kasich is going to be futile, unless they want him to be the Ngo Dinh Diem of the 2016 RNC. Even if Trump doesn't go in there with 1,237 votes, who the hell is the GOP going to propose as an alternative? It's clear that the well is poisoned with Cruz and that Kasich lacks any substantive support. Mitt Romney? Paul Ryan? Jeb!?

If they seriously try to bring in that low-energy loser, I may just scream.

[Orser67]

He would probably have a 90% chance of winning the nomination, but he still wouldn't be the presumptive nominee. He's still cutting it too close, and still has a chance to lose out on California delegates due to it's WTA system.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Is it really that hard to image that some of Trump's PA unbound delegates, are actually true believers?   This is Pennyslvania we are talking about here. The T is not full of Pat Toomeys. It is full of Germanic-Irish-Italo-Polish people who are living in poverty and long for the days when the rust belt was the steel belt, their parents had great jobs and now those are all in China. It is going to take more a few dinners to bribe them away from their history

[Vosem]

Yes in the sense that he's won the election process. This being Ted Cruz, I don't think we can rule out the nuclear option being pulled until the moment of the first ballot being cast. Also no in the sense that I'm very confident Cruz and Kasich continue to California regardless of anything that happens in the interim.

[RR1997]

Donald John Trump will most likely seal the nomination if he wins Indiana.

[dspNY]

Yes. He gets to 1237 before the convention in this case, which is looking more and more likely