Beef's OFFICIAL 2016 Presidential Prediction

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

The Republicans will nominate some guy.  The Democrats will nominate Bernie.  A third candidate will ramp up at the last minute at great expense.  Bernie Sanders will get a plurality.  The race is thrown to the House where...

Republicans win back the White House!! (With a Democratic VP)

You read it here first.

[Gog]

Well... That's unique.

Here's my most chaotic prediction

[COLOR="Red"]Fmr. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton/Senator Mark Warner (Democratic): 37.51% 364 Electoral Votes[/COLOR]
[COLOR="Orange"]Businessman Donald Trump/Representative Louie Ghormert (Populist): 32.24% 127 Electoral Votes[/COLOR]
[COLOR="Lime"]Senator Bernard Sanders/Represenative Raul Grijalva (Progressive): 18.32% 31 Electoral Votes[/COLOR]
[COLOR="Blue"]Fmr. Governor Jeb Bush/Governor John Kasich (Republican): 12.93% 16 Electoral Votes[/COLOR]

[Eraserhead]

Good luck with that one.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

Good luck with that one.

I base this on three things:

1. No one the Republicans nominate will be electable.

2. While Bernie Sanders is electable, there will be enough of a center backlash against him and the GOP nominee to support a third-party ticket.  If it were someone with genuine name recognition and executive credentials, it would be enough to steal swing states.  I don't know if you could get Michiganders hyped up about a Bayh/O'Malley ticket, though.

3. The GOP Congressional caucus would elect Caligula President if he were the GOP nominee and the choice devolved to them.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

The VP prediction is based on the Democrats coming from behind in the Senate and picking up Wisconsin (my man Russ Feingold), Illinois (Tammy Duckworth), Ohio (Ted Strickland), and Pennsylvania (Not Pat Toomey DIE ALONE).  And I think the GOP nominee will have negative coattails in all four states.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

Something like this could happen:

Sanders (D): 235
Trump or whatever (R): 168
Bayh (I): 135

[Gog]

Something like this could happen:

Sanders (D): 235
Trump or whatever (R): 168
Bayh (I): 135

Who is bayh?

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

Something like this could happen:

Sanders (D): 235
Trump or whatever (R): 168
Bayh (I): 135

Who is bayh?

Former Governor and Senator from Indiana? Evan Bayh

[Gog]

Something like this could happen:

Sanders (D): 235
Trump or whatever (R): 168
Bayh (I): 135

Who is bayh?

Former Governor and Senator from Indiana? Evan Bayh

Okay, why is he being touted here as indie if he couldn't do much in 2008 campaign?

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

Okay, why is he being touted here as indie if he couldn't do much in 2008 campaign?

Doesn't have to be Evan Bayh.  A centrist ham sandwich will do.

There's nothing particularly special about him, but someone with executive, national, and centrist credibility, who could step in and hold his own in three-way debates between Trump and Bernie Sanders.

Hell, put me in a three-way debate against Trump and Sanders and I'd wipe the floor.

The reason Evan Bayh couldn't amount to anything in 2008 is because he couldn't excite the Democratic base.  In a general election against Trump and Sanders, while he wouldn't win, he'd stand a good chance of stealing a lot of EVs.

[Former Senator Haslam2020]

Bayh wouldn't run, if there were to be an indie in Trump vs Sanders, it'd be Jon Huntsman. Still, I doubt it.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

Bayh wouldn't run, if there were to be an indie in Trump vs Sanders, it'd be Jon Huntsman. Still, I doubt it.

In Hoosierland there's talk of drafting him kicking and screaming into the race.

[ProgressiveCanadian]

Something like this could happen:

Sanders (D): 235
Trump or whatever (R): 168
Bayh (I): 135

No way bayh is running

[defe07]

I don't know if Bayh would run but he could be a good independent ticket with Jon Huntsman, for example. A moderate Democrat and a moderate Republican team up, I wonder if a GOP House would choose the third party ticket in case of a hung Electoral College!

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

I don't know if Bayh would run but he could be a good independent ticket with Jon Huntsman, for example. A moderate Democrat and a moderate Republican team up, I wonder if a GOP House would choose the third party ticket in case of a hung Electoral College!

In the event of a Sanders plurality, the question would be "would there be enough principled Republicans who would cross aisles and vote with the Democrats for Sanders," and the answer would be "You're joking, right?"

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

The idea that someone like Bayh could break out of the low single digits, much less win any states, is fairly ludicrous. He'd hardly be the first person who held a "serious" office to run for President on a third party before, but look at how well Cynthia McKinney, Bob Barr and Gary Johnson did. Bayh would be some guy who hasn't ran for office in 12 years who'd have a couple months to scrabble together a nationwide campaign structure, and raise funds for it, thus raising another issue, who's going to donate to him? Big money donors and corporate interests wouldn't be interested because they'd figure he has no chance, and small donations come from committed activist types on each side, neither of who'd be interested in Bayh. Who's going to be willing to go canvas and knock on doors for Bayh? Most people who do such things aren't interested in centrism, and Bayh is hardly of the principle variety, "I sold out to George W. Bush on most of his agenda but supported Obamacare" isn't something that'll endear him to either side. Then there's also the question of ballot access, no non-major party candidate since Ross Perot has made it in all 50 states, and it's not a coincidence the last one too was a billionaire who basically self-funded and built his entire campaign. Bayh has no infrastructure, little time to build it, and no appeal allowing for it.

There's a reason why such "centrist" candidates rarely go anywhere and serve only as sort of a generic protest vote for anyone who doesn't like the main two (see the success of Minnesota's Independence Party after Ventura). For a national campaign that requires such money and infrastructure, it's kind of screwed from the start.

[defe07]

But Huntsman could do it, if there was a parallel campaign going on. Running a parallel independent campaign for President would be weird but not impossible. Huntsman and Bayh would be the type of third party ticket that brings in moderate Democrats and moderate Republicans.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

But Huntsman could do it, if there was a parallel campaign going on. Running a parallel independent campaign for President would be weird but not impossible. Huntsman and Bayh would be the type of third party ticket that brings in moderate Democrats and moderate Republicans.

Once again, where is Huntsman going to get all the money and campaign infrastructure?

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

Bayh is probably not the best choice.  But the premise is, this is 1980, except instead of Reagan it's an utterly offensive pustule who calls Mexicans rapist drug dealers, and instead of Carter you have a cantankerous old New Englander that everyone calls a "Socialist," and into that fray steps someone who can look presidential and provide enough of a relief that he/she can actually steal EVs.

As far as donor support: Let's say we're dealing with the prospect of a President Trump.  This is a Very Bad Thing for a lot of corporate America.  President Sanders is CLEARLY better, strange as that may sound.  If I'm CEO of anything other than a too-big-to-fail bank, I would rather have Bernie Sanders than Trump stumbling through our regulatory systems like a bull in a china shop.  But if polls show voters unable to hold their noses and vote for the "socialist," the smart thing to do would be to back the third-way ticket as a spoiler.  Even if they get 0 EVs, they will steal lots of Trump votes and throw the election to the much, much, MUCH safer Bernie Sanders.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Well...

[Higgs]

So the guy who runs indie will be the person who has said he can get behind Trump and says that the Republican Party needs to unify behind Trump?

Let's dispel with this fiction that Huntsman doesn't support Trump.