Will Hillary reach 55% in the upcoming general election against Trump?

[Santander]

Hillary is a terrible candidate and Trump should not be underestimated. 50% will be a good vote share for Hillary.

[Lincoln Republican]

I would say Hillary wins the election with 52%. 

I fail to see how Trump can win after effectively alienating a vast majority of women voters, and after degrading millions of Hispanics.

[Ljube]

lolno

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

At this rate, she'll be lucky to hit 45%.

Corrected for your future mental health.

53-54% is a reasonable ceiling.

[HAnnA MArin County]

At this rate, she'll be lucky to hit 45%.

Corrected for your future mental health.

53-54% is a reasonable ceiling.

Perhaps he was thinking of his candidate, which I think would be about right, a 45-percent ceiling for DJT.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Right now its a even race and economy isnt performing all that great. However, 3+4th quarters economic conditions changes. Its a 271 Clinton electorate, and Castro should be running mate but Trump is a weak candidate.

[RR1997]

No.

Clinton has an absolute ceiling of 54% against Donald John Trump.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

Yes, but with turnout so dismal the headline will be how she won the election with fewer popular votes than Romney received in 2012.

Clinton: 60 million
Trump: 42 million
Other: 7 million

Total: 109 million votes cast, down from 129 million in 2012.

[Meclazine for Israel]

I dont think she will.

If you think how Trump was going to perform before the start of the Primaries, you just cannot write him off.

[Coolface Sock #42069]

No, but she doesn't need to hit 55% to win by double digits.

[Seriously?]

People on this forum think he will lose MS, UT, TX, AZ, GA, IN and MO and you think he's being overestimated? lol

I want a sip of the Kool-Aid the red avatars on this board are drinking.

This race will settle to typical equilibrium once the nominees are officially chosen and the healing process begins, which means that MS, UT, TX and IN will be safe Republican (likely tier 3), GA and AZ will be tier 2 Likely Republican. MO will Lean Republican.

The tossup states of FL, OH, VA, NH, etc. will be tossups. The playing field will be your typical tier 1 Republican leans (like NC), tossups and tier 1 Democrat leans (like PA) at the end of the day.

[Virginiá]

Right now its a even race and economy isnt performing all that great. However, 3+4th quarters economic conditions changes. Its a 271 Clinton electorate, and Castro should be running mate but Trump is a weak candidate.

This isn't an even race at all. Trump has been losing in the polls by lopsided margins for all but a month or so since he announced, and if the election was held today, he'd go down in flames.

People on this forum think he will lose MS, UT, TX, AZ, GA, IN and MO and you think he's being overestimated? lol

I want a sip of the Kool-Aid the red avatars on this board are drinking.

This race will settle to typical equilibrium once the nominees are officially chosen and the healing process begins, which means that MS, UT, TX and IN will be safe Republican (likely tier 3), GA and AZ will be tier 2 Likely Republican. MO will Lean Republican.

The tossup states of FL, OH, VA, NH, etc. will be tossups. The playing field will be your typical tier 1 Republican leans (like NC), tossups and tier 1 Democrat leans (like PA) at the end of the day.

The thing about Donald Trump and the healing process is that while his wounds are trying to heal, he is constantly pouring sulfuric acid on them. His wounds are too deep and too irritated to heal by November.

This is not, and will not be a typical race.

[SillyAmerican]

People on this forum think he will lose MS, UT, TX, AZ, GA, IN and MO and you think he's being overestimated? lol

I want a sip of the Kool-Aid the red avatars on this board are drinking.

This race will settle to typical equilibrium once the nominees are officially chosen and the healing process begins, which means that MS, UT, TX and IN will be safe Republican (likely tier 3), GA and AZ will be tier 2 Likely Republican. MO will Lean Republican.

The tossup states of FL, OH, VA, NH, etc. will be tossups. The playing field will be your typical tier 1 Republican leans (like NC), tossups and tier 1 Democrat leans (like PA) at the end of the day.

Yeah. Technically, we're not even in May yet. Relax people, there's lots more to come...

[ProudModerate2]

People on this forum think he will lose MS, UT, TX, AZ, GA, IN and MO and you think he's being overestimated? lol

I want a sip of the Kool-Aid the red avatars on this board are drinking.
This race will settle to typical equilibrium once the nominees are officially chosen and the healing process begins, which means that MS, UT, TX and IN will be safe Republican (likely tier 3), GA and AZ will be tier 2 Likely Republican. MO will Lean Republican.
The tossup states of FL, OH, VA, NH, etc. will be tossups. The playing field will be your typical tier 1 Republican leans (like NC), tossups and tier 1 Democrat leans (like PA) at the end of the day.

Yeah. Technically, we're not even in May yet. Relax people, there's lots more to come...

Yes, I agree.
There is still 6 more months of stupid and damaging things trump will do and say.
This will only depress his numbers even more than where they stand today.

[Seriously?]

The thing about Donald Trump and the healing process is that while his wounds are trying to heal, he is constantly pouring sulfuric acid on them. His wounds are too deep and too irritated to heal by November.

This is not, and will not be a typical race.

Fundamentally, at the end of the day, it will be. Republicans will still be Republicans. Democrats will still be Democrats. A 5-15% defection on either side is nothing new and is to be expected. Nor is this "I refuse to vote for the other guy" in the middle of a heated primary.

As always, Independents will swing the election. There's ample evidence for a swing into either camp at this point. Trump will run well with so-called Reagan Democrats. Hillary! should get Bernie's "Progressive" base.

I don't buy this "Trump is a terrible candidate" meme. He is on track to break the record for votes in a Republican primary in a race that started with 17 candidates for crying out loud. Underestimate him to your peril. 16 other Republican candidates already have.

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

No. We're too polarized for that. Her ceiling is probably Obama 2008, but like I said, if we enter a recession in the summer or fall, even Trump will have a chance to win. Don't underestimate him.

[Ljube]

This thread will look so funny after 6 or 7 months.

Yeah. The red avatars here are insufferable hacks as always. You weren't around to see them in 2012. But it seems that they will be even worse this time.

[Desroko]

This thread will look so funny after 6 or 7 months.

Yeah. The red avatars here are insufferable hacks as always. You weren't around to see them in 2012. But it seems that they will be even worse this time.

The complete lack of self-awareness here is astonishing.

[Doimper]

The thing about Donald Trump and the healing process is that while his wounds are trying to heal, he is constantly pouring sulfuric acid on them. His wounds are too deep and too irritated to heal by November.

This is not, and will not be a typical race.

Fundamentally, at the end of the day, it will be. Republicans will still be Republicans. Democrats will still be Democrats. A 5-15% defection on either side is nothing new and is to be expected. Nor is this "I refuse to vote for the other guy" in the middle of a heated primary.

As always, Independents will swing the election. There's ample evidence for a swing into either camp at this point. Trump will run well with so-called Reagan Democrats. Hillary! should get Bernie's "Progressive" base.

I don't buy this "Trump is a terrible candidate" meme. He is on track to break the record for votes in a Republican primary in a race that started with 17 candidates for crying out loud. Underestimate him to your peril. 16 other Republican candidates already have.

I agree that Trump shouldn't be underestimated, but of course a more competitive primary is going to increase turnout. Trump breaking the record won't be proof of anything.

[Virginiá]

The thing about Donald Trump and the healing process is that while his wounds are trying to heal, he is constantly pouring sulfuric acid on them. His wounds are too deep and too irritated to heal by November.

This is not, and will not be a typical race.

Fundamentally, at the end of the day, it will be. Republicans will still be Republicans. Democrats will still be Democrats. A 5-15% defection on either side is nothing new and is to be expected. Nor is this "I refuse to vote for the other guy" in the middle of a heated primary.

As always, Independents will swing the election. There's ample evidence for a swing into either camp at this point. Trump will run well with so-called Reagan Democrats. Hillary! should get Bernie's "Progressive" base.

I don't buy this "Trump is a terrible candidate" meme. He is on track to break the record for votes in a Republican primary in a race that started with 17 candidates for crying out loud. Underestimate him to your peril. 16 other Republican candidates already have.

1. "Reagan Democrats" are already either Republicans or are Democrats that have been voting Republican for decades. The term is no longer applicable as an electoral demographic.

2. Primaries have little to do with the actual general election result. A highly contested primary with 17 candidates for a party that has been out of the White House for 8 years is most certainly going to have high primary turnout, as history (and this cycle) shows us. What history also shows us is that high primary turnout means nothing for the GE. It's not a viable argument in this case.

Trum's teflon applies to a subset of Republican voters. If it applied to the general electorate, the bulk of his poll numbers wouldn't be as abysmal as they are.

I don't buy this "Trump is a terrible candidate" meme.

Are you kidding me? He is a terrible candidate, and I mean that in both that he is a terrible person and running a terrible campaign. Yes, his strategy has worked wonders for a primary. Unfortunately, that same strategy has managed to alienate broad swathes of the electorate and has energized minorities, particularly Hispanics like never before. These voters will be out in force come election day and that threatens his meager chances in critical states.

Perhaps as a Democrat I am overly generous in my criticisms of his electoral chances, but some Republicans here are overly generous in their assumptions that "nothing is wrong with him" or that "the race will be close" or that "Trump is a good candidate".


All I can say is that this picture seems to be the most accurate representation of how some of you guys are treating this election:

[IceSpear]

Yes, but with turnout so dismal the headline will be how she won the election with fewer popular votes than Romney received in 2012.

Clinton: 60 million
Trump: 42 million
Other: 7 million

Total: 109 million votes cast, down from 129 million in 2012.

Trump on the ballot is going to drive up turnout on both sides.

[IceSpear]

This thread will look so funny after 6 or 7 months.

Yeah. The red avatars here are insufferable hacks as always. You weren't around to see them in 2012. But it seems that they will be even worse this time.

Uh...what? This was one of your posts from 2012. But the red avatars are the hacks?

You must be logged in to read this quote.

How was the dinner by the way?

[Frozen Sky Ever Why]

People on this forum think he will lose MS, UT, TX, AZ, GA, IN and MO and you think he's being overestimated? lol

I want a sip of the Kool-Aid the red avatars on this board are drinking.

This race will settle to typical equilibrium once the nominees are officially chosen and the healing process begins, which means that MS, UT, TX and IN will be safe Republican (likely tier 3), GA and AZ will be tier 2 Likely Republican. MO will Lean Republican.

The tossup states of FL, OH, VA, NH, etc. will be tossups. The playing field will be your typical tier 1 Republican leans (like NC), tossups and tier 1 Democrat leans (like PA) at the end of the day.

Highly unlikely VA will be a swing state this year, Trump has been polling abysmally there.

[DS0816]

The shifts are toward the Democrats.

This is not just presidential but also the congressional levels.

Since the 17th Amendment of the 1910s, every presidential election in which one or both houses of congress had flipped party control went to the party which also won the presidency. This was the case in 1932, 1948, 1952, and 1980.

There is strong indication the Republicans will lose the U.S. Senate. The U.S. House is in question.

For a Democratic pickup of either house of Congress…that means the Republican nominee, likely Donald Trump, will not win a Republican pickup to be elected the next president of the United States.

And if Trump is having trouble with white women…yeah I can picture Hillary Clinton (and, if it wasn’t her winning the nomination, Bernie Sanders) elected in a landslide. In 2012, Barack Obama was re-elected by D+3.86. Let us call it +04. It would not be a stretch, if these polls trends sticks, to see the 2016 Democratic nominee elected with a margin closer to +14. And if that happens, we will get the first landslide since 1988 in which the winner will have reached an electoral-vote score of 400.

[pbrower2a]

That will take winning like Obama in the North and like Carter in 1976  in the South. Such is incompatible with the political culture of our time.