Will Hillary reach 55% in the upcoming general election against Trump?
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
March 28, 2024, 10:45:45 AM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Election Archive
  Election Archive
  2016 U.S. Presidential Election
  Will Hillary reach 55% in the upcoming general election against Trump?
« previous next »
Pages: 1 2 [3] 4
Poll
Question: you know the drill
#1
Yes
 
#2
No
 
Show Pie Chart
Partisan results

Total Voters: 146

Author Topic: Will Hillary reach 55% in the upcoming general election against Trump?  (Read 7738 times)
Ljube
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,987
Political Matrix
E: 2.71, S: -6.09

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #50 on: April 30, 2016, 07:04:07 AM »

This thread will look so funny after 6 or 7 months.

Yeah. The red avatars here are insufferable hacks as always. You weren't around to see them in 2012. But it seems that they will be even worse this time.

Uh...what? This was one of your posts from 2012. But the red avatars are the hacks?

Quote
You must be logged in to read this quote.

How was the dinner by the way? Wink

I paid the dinner, of course. And it was delicious. Smiley
This time he's paying, though (I bet on Trump and he bet on Jeb!) Smiley
Logged
Wisconsin+17
Ben Kenobi
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,127
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #51 on: April 30, 2016, 07:25:09 AM »

No. She'll get 60.
Logged
Fuzzy Stands With His Friend, Chairman Sanchez
Fuzzy Bear
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 25,502
United States


WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #52 on: April 30, 2016, 09:48:31 AM »

Hillary could well do this.

On the other hand, Trump could get 53% of the vote against her if things went well.

Trump will prove to be a boom-or-bust for the GOP.  His upside, IMO, is greater than any other candidate, including Kasich.
Logged
beaver2.0
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,769


Political Matrix
E: -2.45, S: -0.52

P P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #53 on: April 30, 2016, 09:51:52 AM »

No.
Logged
SillyAmerican
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,052
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #54 on: April 30, 2016, 01:06:53 PM »

The shifts are toward the Democrats.

This is not just presidential but also the congressional levels.

Since the 17th Amendment of the 1910s, every presidential election in which one or both houses of congress had flipped party control went to the party which also won the presidency. This was the case in 1932, 1948, 1952, and 1980.

There is strong indication the Republicans will lose the U.S. Senate. The U.S. House is in question.

For a Democratic pickup of either house of Congress…that means the Republican nominee, likely Donald Trump, will not win a Republican pickup to be elected the next president of the United States.

And if Trump is having trouble with white women…yeah I can picture Hillary Clinton (and, if it wasn’t her winning the nomination, Bernie Sanders) elected in a landslide. In 2012, Barack Obama was re-elected by D+3.86. Let us call it +04. It would not be a stretch, if these polls trends sticks, to see the 2016 Democratic nominee elected with a margin closer to +14. And if that happens, we will get the first landslide since 1988 in which the winner will have reached an electoral-vote score of 400.

Things are shifting towards the Democrats, huh? Perhaps Republicans should simply spend time reminding folks why they voted the way they did during the midterm elections. Just remind us about that beautiful thing called Obamacare, remind us how great our economy is running, remind us how wonderful our job creation has been of late, remind us again how the fight against the unnamable Islamic terrorist groups is going. Yeah, who could predict anything but a Democratic landslide?
Logged
Virginiá
Virginia
Administratrix
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 18,856
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -6.97, S: -5.91

WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #55 on: April 30, 2016, 01:11:31 PM »

Things are shifting towards the Democrats, huh? Perhaps Republicans should simply spend time reminding folks why they voted the way they did during the midterm elections. Just remind us about that beautiful thing called Obamacare, remind us how great our economy is running, remind us how wonderful our job creation has been of late, remind us again how the fight against the unnamable Islamic terrorist groups is going. Yeah, who could predict anything but a Democratic landslide?

Because that worked so well in 2012
Logged
Seriously?
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,029
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #56 on: April 30, 2016, 05:22:32 PM »

I don't buy this "Trump Hillary is a terrible candidate" meme.

Are you kidding me? He she is a terrible candidate, and I mean that in both that he she is a terrible person and running a terrible campaign. Yes, his her strategy has worked wonders for a primary. Unfortunately, that same strategy has managed to alienate broad swathes of the Progressive electorate and has energized minorities, particularly Hispanics white males like never before. These voters will be out in force come election day and that threatens his her meager chances in critical states.

Perhaps as a Democrat Republican I am overly generous in my criticisms of his her electoral chances, but some Republicans Democrats here are overly generous in their assumptions that "nothing is wrong with him her" or that "the race will be close" or that "Trump Hillary! is a good candidate".
Take the word "Trump" and replace it with Hillary! and you'll get an idea of what Republicans think of Clinton. My sole point here is that at the end of the day, it's going to be mainly status quo. Hillary! is not winning Arizona. Trump is not winning Oregon. The map will settle into its traditional place after the conventions are over and both parties are unified.
Logged
Virginiá
Virginia
Administratrix
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 18,856
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -6.97, S: -5.91

WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #57 on: April 30, 2016, 06:26:21 PM »

I don't buy this "Trump Hillary is a terrible candidate" meme.

Are you kidding me? He she is a terrible candidate, and I mean that in both that he she is a terrible person and running a terrible campaign. Yes, his her strategy has worked wonders for a primary. Unfortunately, that same strategy has managed to alienate broad swathes of the Progressive electorate and has energized minorities, particularly Hispanics white males like never before. These voters will be out in force come election day and that threatens his her meager chances in critical states.

Perhaps as a Democrat Republican I am overly generous in my criticisms of his her electoral chances, but some Republicans Democrats here are overly generous in their assumptions that "nothing is wrong with him her" or that "the race will be close" or that "Trump Hillary! is a good candidate".
Take the word "Trump" and replace it with Hillary! and you'll get an idea of what Republicans think of Clinton. My sole point here is that at the end of the day, it's going to be mainly status quo. Hillary! is not winning Arizona. Trump is not winning Oregon. The map will settle into its traditional place after the conventions are over and both parties are unified.

Alright, well, all I can say is that by almost all objective measures, Trump looks set to lose big based on the data available right now. The only "evidence" I've seen of him not losing is people assuming things will even out, or his polls will improve, but all of this is just opinions. Right now, and basically the entire time he's been running has showed him lagging behind, a lot of times by gaping margins. So there is more proof, and thus more reason to believe he will lose than not, and not in a close race either.

Also in relation to your change regarding her meager chances - That's not true. It's Trump losing in the polls. That's why I said meager, because he is so far behind her in critical states. Hillary is not behind Trump, so that is not meager.

It kind of bothers me how everyone around here is like "but Trump will do this or that, and win the primary, because he's defied all conventional wisdom!", yet when it comes to him losing badly in the polls for the GE, suddenly conventional wisdom is relevant again? That's such a double standard.

This race is not even right now and there is no evidence yet to suggest it will become even/competitive.
Logged
Maxwell
mah519
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 28,459
Germany


Political Matrix
E: -6.45, S: -6.96

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #58 on: April 30, 2016, 06:40:37 PM »

The shifts are toward the Democrats.

This is not just presidential but also the congressional levels.

Since the 17th Amendment of the 1910s, every presidential election in which one or both houses of congress had flipped party control went to the party which also won the presidency. This was the case in 1932, 1948, 1952, and 1980.

There is strong indication the Republicans will lose the U.S. Senate. The U.S. House is in question.

For a Democratic pickup of either house of Congress…that means the Republican nominee, likely Donald Trump, will not win a Republican pickup to be elected the next president of the United States.

And if Trump is having trouble with white women…yeah I can picture Hillary Clinton (and, if it wasn’t her winning the nomination, Bernie Sanders) elected in a landslide. In 2012, Barack Obama was re-elected by D+3.86. Let us call it +04. It would not be a stretch, if these polls trends sticks, to see the 2016 Democratic nominee elected with a margin closer to +14. And if that happens, we will get the first landslide since 1988 in which the winner will have reached an electoral-vote score of 400.

Things are shifting towards the Democrats, huh? Perhaps Republicans should simply spend time reminding folks why they voted the way they did during the midterm elections. Just remind us about that beautiful thing called Obamacare, remind us how great our economy is running, remind us how wonderful our job creation has been of late, remind us again how the fight against the unnamable Islamic terrorist groups is going. Yeah, who could predict anything but a Democratic landslide?

We should be reminded of our really low unemployment, wages finally going in the right direction, how people are getting healthcare, and how Hillary is going to continue to marked level of success under the Obama administration despite facing the most vicious level of opposition ever.
Logged
Nyvin
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,623
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #59 on: April 30, 2016, 06:49:39 PM »

The shifts are toward the Democrats.

This is not just presidential but also the congressional levels.

Since the 17th Amendment of the 1910s, every presidential election in which one or both houses of congress had flipped party control went to the party which also won the presidency. This was the case in 1932, 1948, 1952, and 1980.

There is strong indication the Republicans will lose the U.S. Senate. The U.S. House is in question.

For a Democratic pickup of either house of Congress…that means the Republican nominee, likely Donald Trump, will not win a Republican pickup to be elected the next president of the United States.

And if Trump is having trouble with white women…yeah I can picture Hillary Clinton (and, if it wasn’t her winning the nomination, Bernie Sanders) elected in a landslide. In 2012, Barack Obama was re-elected by D+3.86. Let us call it +04. It would not be a stretch, if these polls trends sticks, to see the 2016 Democratic nominee elected with a margin closer to +14. And if that happens, we will get the first landslide since 1988 in which the winner will have reached an electoral-vote score of 400.

Things are shifting towards the Democrats, huh? Perhaps Republicans should simply spend time reminding folks why they voted the way they did during the midterm elections. Just remind us about that beautiful thing called Obamacare, remind us how great our economy is running, remind us how wonderful our job creation has been of late, remind us again how the fight against the unnamable Islamic terrorist groups is going. Yeah, who could predict anything but a Democratic landslide?

Things really are shifting towards the Democrats if you look at the Republican Party's approval numbers...
Logged
Beefalow and the Consumer
Beef
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,123
United States


Political Matrix
E: -2.77, S: -8.78

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #60 on: May 02, 2016, 11:37:41 AM »

Yes, but with turnout so dismal the headline will be how she won the election with fewer popular votes than Romney received in 2012.

Clinton: 60 million
Trump: 42 million
Other: 7 million

Total: 109 million votes cast, down from 129 million in 2012.

Trump on the ballot is going to drive up turnout on both sides.

The only way I can see turnout being driven up is for independents to come out in droves to prevent Trump.

Donald Trump has already hit his ceiling: the cult that has come out to GOP primaries and overstocked his delegate portfolio thanks to generous allocation rules.  I can see - maybe - 45 million Trump votes in the general, but even that seems ridiculous.

Meanwhile, I don't see anyone getting too excited about Hillary.  Voters will see polls that show a foregone conclusion and stay home on Election Day.
Logged
HagridOfTheDeep
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,717
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -6.19, S: -4.35

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #61 on: May 02, 2016, 12:06:52 PM »

Yes, but with turnout so dismal the headline will be how she won the election with fewer popular votes than Romney received in 2012.

Clinton: 60 million
Trump: 42 million
Other: 7 million

Total: 109 million votes cast, down from 129 million in 2012.

Trump on the ballot is going to drive up turnout on both sides.

The only way I can see turnout being driven up is for independents to come out in droves to prevent Trump.

Donald Trump has already hit his ceiling: the cult that has come out to GOP primaries and overstocked his delegate portfolio thanks to generous allocation rules.  I can see - maybe - 45 million Trump votes in the general, but even that seems ridiculous.

Meanwhile, I don't see anyone getting too excited about Hillary.  Voters will see polls that show a foregone conclusion and stay home on Election Day.

I'm not so sure. I know the contexts are a little bit different, but the last Canadian federal election (and the last Ontario provincial election, for that matter) saw the anti-conservative party hugely over-perform their poll numbers because people were scared sh-tless of Conservative rule. Donald Trump is way more threatening than Stephen Harper or Tim Hudak.

I also like to believe that a lot of people are embarrassed to admit they support Hillary because she's been continuously painted as the "uncool" candidate. When it's her against Trump, folks will fall in line for Hillary. Plus, held up against a brash figure like the Donald, Hillary's few positives (they do exist) will, I hope, crystallize in stark contrast. I mean, she is capable of exuding real warmth in the right situations, and as long as she stays poised, looks like she's enjoying the process, and holds onto some of the lessons she's learned from the primaries, she should be fine. I've got rose-coloured glasses on for sure, but her Pennsylvania speech last week was one of the best speeches she's ever given (dare I say, if a man had given it he would have received lavish praise Wink ). Her interviews have been engaging and personable. She's got a lot of strengths, and she is constantly improving. I am optimistic she will be fine.

That said, I don't think I've ever been more worried about the results of an election, and I'm not even American. I've literally had nightmares about Trump, and I can't begin to explain the sinking feeling I get in the pit of my stomach when I contemplate the fact that Donald Trump could win. I pray enough Americans will be motivated by a similarly intense feeling.
Logged
Kingpoleon
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 22,144
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #62 on: May 02, 2016, 04:35:56 PM »

I think so, Republicans are at their lowest approval ratings since 1992.
So is Hillary, ironically. And for good reason. This is the nth election in a row where 10% on the right and 10% on the left decide the possible presidents for the 100%. And just now, the American people are beginning to realize the severity of the situation.
Logged
Tetro Kornbluth
Gully Foyle
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 12,846
Ireland, Republic of


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #63 on: May 02, 2016, 10:53:25 PM »

I think so, Republicans are at their lowest approval ratings since 1992.
So is Hillary, ironically. And for good reason. This is the nth election in a row where 10% on the right and 10% on the left decide the possible presidents for the 100%. And just now, the American people are beginning to realize the severity of the situation.

lol, have you been paying attention at all?

Anyway, to answer this question you must note that pretty much everything between now and November will be about one man - even more so than already - and next to nothing about the other person in the race. Thus her result could swing wildly depending on absolutely nothing at all she does - anything from 48% to 60% or above. What is more likely? Well, little has been more unlikely than what has actually happened so far, so I don't think any prediction based on 'reasonable assumptions' is worth much. If they were, we would be discussing nominee Rubio's chances in Virginia and Pennsylvania instead.

Although if must ask for a prediction, I'd say there is a good chance of that. And there's a small but far-from-zero of it being a 20-point blowout a la 1984. The map isn't as solid as people think, especially when 'generic candidates' aren't running.
Logged
DS0816
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,108
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #64 on: May 04, 2016, 07:21:37 AM »

The shifts are toward the Democrats.

This is not just presidential but also the congressional levels.

Since the 17th Amendment of the 1910s, every presidential election in which one or both houses of congress had flipped party control went to the party which also won the presidency. This was the case in 1932, 1948, 1952, and 1980.

There is strong indication the Republicans will lose the U.S. Senate. The U.S. House is in question.

For a Democratic pickup of either house of Congress…that means the Republican nominee, likely Donald Trump, will not win a Republican pickup to be elected the next president of the United States.

And if Trump is having trouble with white women…yeah I can picture Hillary Clinton (and, if it wasn’t her winning the nomination, Bernie Sanders) elected in a landslide. In 2012, Barack Obama was re-elected by D+3.86. Let us call it +04. It would not be a stretch, if these polls trends sticks, to see the 2016 Democratic nominee elected with a margin closer to +14. And if that happens, we will get the first landslide since 1988 in which the winner will have reached an electoral-vote score of 400.

Things are shifting towards the Democrats, huh? Perhaps Republicans should simply spend time reminding folks why they voted the way they did during the midterm elections. Just remind us about that beautiful thing called Obamacare, remind us how great our economy is running, remind us how wonderful our job creation has been of late, remind us again how the fight against the unnamable Islamic terrorist groups is going. Yeah, who could predict anything but a Democratic landslide?

That has nothing to do with answering the thread's topic question, "Will Hillary reach 55% in the upcoming general election against Trump?"
Logged
Nyvin
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,623
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #65 on: May 04, 2016, 08:15:14 AM »

A CNN poll just came out with Clinton - Trump at 54 - 41 respectively...

The GOP is screwed.
Logged
MT Treasurer
IndyRep
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,284
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #66 on: May 04, 2016, 08:15:33 AM »

A CNN poll just came out with Clinton - Trump at 54 - 41 respectively...

The GOP is screwed.

Wait, the election is held tomorrow?
Logged
Beefalow and the Consumer
Beef
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,123
United States


Political Matrix
E: -2.77, S: -8.78

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #67 on: May 04, 2016, 08:32:47 AM »


That said, I don't think I've ever been more worried about the results of an election, and I'm not even American. I've literally had nightmares about Trump, and I can't begin to explain the sinking feeling I get in the pit of my stomach when I contemplate the fact that Donald Trump could win. I pray enough Americans will be motivated by a similarly intense feeling.

I'm absolutely terrified.  I really love our new home in Indianapolis, but as a software developer with skills in high demand, it wouldn't be hard to join you in the True North.  I already know the words to your national anthem by heart, and I can lose my American accent.

The biggest problem would be finding homes for, and saying goodbye to some of our four cats.
Logged
PresidentTRUMP
2016election
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 945


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #68 on: May 04, 2016, 08:40:27 AM »

No she is struggling with a 74 year old SOCIALIST from Vermont. Donald Trump will be the next President of the United States and win a tight election against Corrupt Hillary.
Logged
Torie
Moderators
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 46,057
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -3.48, S: -4.70

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #69 on: May 04, 2016, 08:52:42 AM »

53-54% seems likelier. She'll have a huge lead in the electoral college though.

I think this is about right, with a reasonable range of from 52% to 56%. But it could at the end of the day be a blowout. It just depends on how Trump comports himself going forward.
Logged
Yank2133
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,387


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #70 on: May 04, 2016, 12:24:13 PM »

Things are shifting towards the Democrats, huh? Perhaps Republicans should simply spend time reminding folks why they voted the way they did during the midterm elections. Just remind us about that beautiful thing called Obamacare, remind us how great our economy is running, remind us how wonderful our job creation has been of late, remind us again how the fight against the unnamable Islamic terrorist groups is going. Yeah, who could predict anything but a Democratic landslide?

Because that worked so well in 2012

Not only that, but only an idiot would think that mid-term turnout is similar to presidential turnout.
Logged
DS0816
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,108
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #71 on: May 08, 2016, 12:22:59 AM »

No she is struggling with a 74 year old SOCIALIST from Vermont. Donald Trump will be the next President of the United States and win a tight election against Corrupt Hillary.

I'm open to that possibility.

But, for the Republicans to win a pickup of the presidency, they will not lose either house of Congress (both of which are already in their column).

The trajectory of vulnerable Republican-held U.S. Senate seats are going to have to change in favor of the party.
Logged
Ronnie
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,993
United States
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #72 on: May 08, 2016, 12:38:54 AM »

Hillary could well do this.

On the other hand, Trump could get 53% of the vote against her if things went well.

Trump will prove to be a boom-or-bust for the GOP.  His upside, IMO, is greater than any other candidate, including Kasich.

What upside is there to a man who called Mexican illegal immigrants rapists and drug dealers?  All he will do is drive up Hispanic turnout to the point where states that should be in play for a Republican become out of reach.

They'd have been better off nominating pretty much anyone else.  Even Jim Gilmore.
Logged
Vega
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,253
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #73 on: May 08, 2016, 12:40:35 AM »

If she can't, then it's unlikely any nominee will ever get 55%.
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,173
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #74 on: May 08, 2016, 09:36:43 AM »

Too early to tell.

Hilldog is favoured (at the moment), but things can still change over the next months.

Enthusiasm is generally high this year among Republicans and we need to wait if they are coming around for Trump after Labor Day. Also, polls this early are meaningless. Trump can move to the center in the next months and his favourables could rise a bit.
Logged
Pages: 1 2 [3] 4  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.078 seconds with 16 queries.